Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be making the rounds among Republican Senators in Washington this coming week and this nomination is not a “done deal” as one might have thought – this is a very unique dynamic. Everything rests on the following premise, RFK Jr. is going to be part of the cabinet because President-elect Donald Trump desperately needed all those potential Kennedy votes because would – primarily – have been for Trump in a two way race. A three-wayy race with Kennedy was a disaster in the making for Trump. Thus it was that Trump promised to let Kennedy run “Healthcare” as part of his administration, and perhaps only later noticed that not only is Kennedy “way out there” on vaccines (That was okay, vaccine-doubt is now entry-level MAGA requirement) but he is also a Democrat in advocating universal healthcare and… women’s reproductive rights. Add all those together, and you have a three-pronged problem with no obvious solution except – and this is wild, Donald Trump’s “moderation” may win the day (I know, I know – but let me set out the weird element.)
First, if there was ever a nominee would could rightly claim that the election ratified his position, it would be Kennedy. (Please don’t see this as me advocating for RFK Jr. or Trump, this is pure analysis – I’d vote no on Kennedy.) Robert Kennedy was on the stump with Trump as much as Elon Musk. Indeed, a major element of the 2024 Trump-win, one with relative comfort, was indeed because the 10%-20% of potential Kennedy voters stayed with him and Trump alongside. If there was ever a candidate who could look at the Senate and say “I’ve been vetted by the voters” it would be Kennedy.
Still, the Constitution doesn’t say a thing about any voter ratifying anyone named to the cabinet and the Senate does still get to advise and consent, to wit: Republican moderates are very concerned about Kennedy’s raison d’etre – his stance on vaccinations linked to autism. Now, according to The New York Times, it is Kennedy’s job to win over some skeptics, including Mitch McConnell, and Republican physicians:
Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader and a survivor of polio, could be a key vote in Mr. Kennedy’s confirmation bid. In a statement Friday that did not name Mr. Kennedy, Mr. McConnell suggested that the petition could jeopardize his confirmation.
And it really should jeopardize the nomination. Vaccinations do need to be constantly reviewed for efficacy – that’s a given. But as of yet all the evidence available demonstrates that vaccines play a critical role in ridding the world of childhood diseases like polio, mumps, rubella, you know the list. And that there is no link to any side effect that would be worth the trade off for the vaccination benefit. Or, at least – no benefit that isn’t enjoyed healthfully-ensconced in solid herd immunity. Kennedy’s position is only tenable when one doesn’t face the very real threat of getting polio or measles versus the spectrum worries.
But now – wait for it – Kennedy may be served by the fact that President-elect Donald Trump is already stepping in to say “He won’t be that crazy.” Yes, Donald Trump will give his “moderate, common-sense” stamp of approval, and retain the right to enforce it:
Mr. Trump said that he was a “big believer” in the polio vaccine. Mr. Kennedy, he added, would be “much less radical than you would think.”
“I think he’s got a very open mind or I wouldn’t have put him there,” Mr. Trump said. “He’s going to be very much less radical.”
Yeah, but when? Because he is facing his “jury” in a sense – this coming week, and we haven’t heard much about “Well, I am not going to simply impose my beliefs on the future of the polio vaccine, let’s not get crazy or something” – And now would be just a fantastic time to say such a thing if he believed it. Yet, Kennedy is full steam ahead.
Mr. Kennedy is set to meet this week with Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, a more moderate Republican, and some physicians in the party’s conference, including Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas.
Those pesky Mid-West “nice” Republican moderates from Kansas, Nebraska, what have you – it will be people like Sen. Marshall that will play the definitive role. Mitch McConnell has one foot out the door and has no love loss with Donald Trump, Lisa Murkowski seems to ever be in an existential crises and doesn’t know how she’ll vote until Fox News tells her, so it will likely come down to people like Sen. Marshall to ask themselves, “When we said Make America Great Again, we weren’t saying we needed to bring polio back with it, did we?”
Or that’s the hope. Then there is this. Somewhere MAGA got its wires crossed with its new anti-vax compass and ended up allowing someone who is pro-abortion to be director of Health and Human Services. Oh, an former Vice-President Mike Pence noticed. Pence sent a statement to all Republican Senators:
“On behalf of tens of millions of pro-life Americans, I respectfully urge Senate Republicans to reject this nomination and give the American people a leader who will respect the sanctity of life as secretary of Health and Human Services.
Tough stuff. You have the old school moderates, so old school that they have actually had polio and remember that it is not something to be toyed with. And you have what had formerly been required pro-life advocates who may be looking around and wondering how they got here with philandering Kennedy and his pro-abortion outlook. Now it is Kennedy’s job to somehow convince them that he is their man even in the face of irrefutable evidence that he’s anything but.
He is Trump’s man and it will be on Trump to get the nomination through, even if it takes his personal promise to the Senators to moderate Kennedy if needed. In the end, Trump made the deal with Kennedy so that Trump won the White House. That means that even if installed at Health and Human Services, Trump does always retain the right and power to say “No!” to rejecting vaccines that have preserved so many lives and stamped-out needless suffering.
And besides, no one is telling RFK Jr. that we don’t share his concern about the autistic spectrum. Far from it. One hopes that he makes research into this area a top priority. Just do it with real research, in labs, specialists with experience, double-blind studies, peer-reviewed – the gold standard, and not a review of Facebook remedies, a lazy stand. Perhaps then we will actually find what may be at the root of the spectrum problems.
Remarkably (And remember, I would still vote no), Kennedy’s nomination really does stand as a pivotal role in the administration and actually could have some promise. Having someone in that office who is a Big-Pharma skeptic is actually liberating. There IS a major problem with Big-Pharma’s role in our public health. It could be revolutionary to have money put to work at looking at food oils and the health of our food supply. It is an area where there is almost surely too little good hard science. If Kennedy were set loose to shake things up in those areas, it could actually then build a real legacy in which the best of America (Our public health science) was preserved but the moneyed-interests entrenched in “Healthcare Inc.” and “Big Food” got knocked around a bit – to Americans’ betterment. Incredibly, Kennedy is uniquely positioned to actually build something lasting and good.
Or McConnell can get five guys and vote no and he goes home. Probably not but these are the Republicans and you never know. In the end, it is on Trump and he can do it. He can twist the arms necessary and he will get Kennedy through – almost surely. Let’s hope he does it with some assurances that Kennedy won’t be given total freedom to drag us back to a place “Again” where we wish we had old remedies for had been solved problems. Or something.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and now on Bluesky.
Something I have seen little mentioned: If polio particularly, but also all the other easily vaccinated diseases recur because of no vaccination, there will be no more travel outside the USA, and no tourism into it – oh and no agricultural or food exports either.
That would affect the economy more than just a little.
“Jr. is no JFK”
Mr. Kennedy is right about some things, but he is batshit crazy about some other things. The fact that he is batshit about these other things will not have a stimulating effect on the movement in favor of those good things. On the contrary,the powerful interests opposed to the things he (and we) are right about will point to nutcase RFK Jr. to discredit them.That’s why RFK Jr, is a really bad poster boy for fighting Big Pharma, etc.