OK all a y’all, go ahead, give ma a ration of shit about Alex Acosta and my prediction. But hell, how was I supposed to know that somebody so craven and cowardly as to publicly debase and humiliate himself yesterday would suddenly grow a pair overnight, and tell Trump to fuck off. Live and learn.
But now, on to my main aimless meandering for the day. A look at the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday shows some surprising results, reconfirms somethings we already thought we knew, but it also exposes what could be a somewhat surprising, and also troubling tactical conundrum for Senator Kamala Harris going forward.
The poll hows that Harris has ridden a wave of popularity from her trouncing of Joe Biden in the debate to a solid, statistical tie third place with Bernie Sanders. This is not surprising, since Harris showed on a stage in Miami, in front of 18 million viewers, that she can disassemble and repackage an old, white guy. And if she can do it to Biden, she can do it to Trump.
from the day he announced, and even before that, his candidacy has been powered by his incredibly strong support in the African American community. In every poll, he has at least lapped, and in some cases double lapped his opposing candidates in support from African American voters. And if you’re going to win not just the White House, but the Democratic nomination, you’re going to have to do it with the support of black voters, especially black women voters, and they have been solidly in the corner of Biden from day one.
How did Harris turn Biden into Da Vinci’s The Dissected Man on Stage in Miami a couple of weeks ago? She did it by hammering him with his self confessed chumminess with white, segregationist Democratic Senators, and by helping to put the kibosh on forced federal busing, both of which should be sensitive and compelling issues for African American voters.
But while the NBC News/WSJ poll shows Harris surging nationally, a look at a specific breakdown number shows a problem for Harris. When you look at the poll among African American voters, Biden still leads Harris by a strong 37-17 margin, still lapping her in the poll. And this is a serious problem for Harris.
Personally, I think that Biden’s popularity with black voters is far oversimplified, and monolithic. Because Biden has leaned somewhat on his being Obama’s wing man for eight years, there is a tendency among some people to think that his support in the black community is tied solely to that. But that isn’t true. Biden was in fact an active and powerful advocate for civil rights issues long before Obama picked him as a running mate, and long before it became politically popular, especially among some white voters to do so. When Harris attacked Biden on those grounds in the debate, the effect seems to have been, at least partially, “So? Who are you girl? Biden was fighting for African Americans while you were riding that bus to school.” The black community has known Joe Biden for more than 35 years, and has long ago come to peace with him, Anita Hill and all.
In order to bypass Biden in the polls, Kamala Harris is going to have to raise her support in the African American community. She may not have to bypass him with her support among younger voters, but she’s going to have to significantly close the gap. But how does she do that? In Miami, she landed a first round haymaker right to Biden’s chin on busing and segregationists, and failed to move the needle in the black community appreciably. And that simple fact should be a general quarters klaxon to her campaign that continuing her attacks on Biden along racial lines is not only not going to help her, but may in fact turn some black voters off to her, for belittling their friend and advocate.
That is the problem for Harris and her campaign going forward. To beat Biden, she is going to have to find a way to elevate her popularity in the African American community. But if that poll is a valid indicator, she isn’t going to be able to use Biden’s civil rights record to do it. It will be interesting to see what kind of a cause celebre she finds to try and get that job done. Don’t touch that dial.
This is a jewel, Murfster. One of your best. Historically accurate and thought provoking. Five salmon. (Instead of five stars. I’m a polar bear at the north pole, you know how it is.)
Thanks…I haven’t heard anybody talking about this, but the interpretation of the polling data seemed rather obvious to me…
It’s very interesting. It got me to thinking and it’s something that i hope that you will keep on top of, Murf, and keep us apprised of as well.
I’m already a nervous wreck over this election and it’s only July, ’19.
Deep breaths, Ursula…we survived two years and a half of this national prison sentence. We can make it another year and a half to the next parole board hearing.
Chardonnay is on sale at Trader Joe’s. How dare I insinuate you should cope through alcohol? I’m not…empty bottles can easily be flung at corrupt officials. Lol.
At this point, I wouldn’t trust ANYONE’S lead in the polls to stay there. There will be no coronations, no inevitability in this primary season. We are likely looking at the most contentious, chaotic Democratic primaries since 1992. There will be lots of yo-yoing, lots of surprises. By way of a for instance, I hear Amash is planning an independent run at the WH. Harris got Round One. Let’s see how Round Two goes.
Not at all!!! In fact, as I just discussed in my latest article, the thing I like the most about the polls is that only 12% of Democrats have “locked in” on any one candidate for their primary vote…Nobody is safe, and everybody has to bring their A-game…
The African-American community was not impressed with Harris’ stunt in the least.
I’ve yet to speak to or read of one person who was.
I don’t know that I’d call it a “stunt,” it was a legitimate subject and contrast, and fueled her rise in the polls, but you’re right, it didn’t seem to move the needle in the black community…
Anecdotal confirmation bias is never that strong of an indicator.
You didn’t like her line of attack, as you’ve made clear, therefore you state it as fact that the entire African American community didn’t like it. There’s no data to support that theory.
There’s also very little data to refute it. As I mention in another story, we keep talking about black support from polls of registered voters. If a poll has 800 responses and only 80-100 are black voters (an appropriate number for the primary sample), the cross-tab data tells us nothing at all. A sub-sample of a hundred voters isn’t a valid poll, especially in a race with 20+ candidates and so many undecided voters.
Based on the data available, Harris’ attack could have been massively effective, and she may now have as much black support as Biden. Or he could be creaming her. We just don’t know. And we should embrace that. The election will happen soon enough…uncertainty in the exact outcome between two good candidates amongst one bloc of voters can be fun to cope with.
I don’t need a poll…..I talk directly to people every single day.
People…talking to people…relying on people…
I’m starting to think you’re getting your polling data from a Barbra Streisand song.
Comprehension is obviously not your strong suit.
*smirk*
I understood what you were saying – I just felt that a Streisand joke was less likely to upset you than an honest reaction to your really flawed analysis methodology.
Here’s where I’m going to pick on your argument…although I’m not saying you’re wrong about Biden’s strengths…I’m saying I don’t think it’s as certain as your analysis implies.
1. National polls will shift when votes start coming in.
The game isn’t “win the black vote,” it’s “win the black vote *over time in the right order.*” What I mean is that we often ignore the staggered nature of the primary calendar.
The initial voting almost always influences the vote down the calendar. In my lifetime, the first four have almost always included surprises that dramatically change the state of the race…sometimes this confirms polling, and sometimes it flies in the face of it.
Where Sen Harris needs black votes is South Carolina. Because it’s entirely possible that we could see two scenarios occur that would dramatically change the race:
Scenario 1: Biden dominates the SC black vote, people decide Harris is not as strong as she’d need to be, and her candidacy is hurt, ended or put into decline.
Scenario 2: Harris does really well with the SC black vote, and Biden’s candidacy is hurt or put into decline.
Either of these scenarios are possible with very little change in the national polling. And if either extreme occurred, we’d expect the national polling to swing rapidly one way or the other to adjust to the reality on the ground. This is the beauty of this system – a lesser-known candidate can micro-target a smaller population of voters in order to build their coalition.
In other words, Harris doesn’t need great numbers amongst black voters in Louisiana polling right now. They vote in April. She needs to do solidly amongst black voters in SC, thereby creating a case for LA voters to move to her.
2. Be reeeeeeeeally careful in analyzing polling data, and take it with a mountain of salt.
This isn’t a “skewed polls” argument – I love polls. They’re totally scientifically valid – ****when used correctly****.
The NBC poll had 800 respondents. That provides a reasonable margin of error for the entire pool. We can say that Biden is preferred by about 27% of voters.
The cross-tabs show that 12% of the respondents were black. That’s about 96 individuals. That sub-sample is in NO WAY large enough to provide solid data on black voter preference. That’s over a 10 point margin or error in a race with more candidates than poll respondents.
Maybe this really is reflective of black voter opinion. Or maybe the poll reached a certain age group within black voters disproportionately and the numbers are off.
Here’s a really good way to visualize my point here – go to the NY Times “Polling in Real Time: The 2018 Midterms” page. Each of those polls offer the results as the responses add up. Flip through several polls and note how different the results at 100 responses can be from a completed poll. In the last five polls they conducted, three of them show 10+ point swings from 100 to complete.
So…what I’m saying is that maybe Biden really is strong and his foundation amongst black voters will prove effective. But there just isn’t enough data to confirm that.
I don’t believe that I coronated Biden in the article, but you’re right, it can’t be just about the black vote…But Biden is also nailing it with voters over 50, and the size of his leads in those two categories makes him formidable…As I just said in a comment above, that same poll showed that only 12% of voters have “locked in” on any one candidate, so nobody is safe…LIkewise I did not sound the death knell for Harris…But she is going to have to increase her polling with black voters, and I’m interested in seeing which issue she can capitalize on, now that it appears that attacks and contrasts on Biden’s civil rights record won’t work for her…I’ve been guzzling this shit for olong enough to know that these polls are temporary, but “snapshots in time” can still catch road signs in the flash…
I didn’t take it as a coronation. I just think there’s tons and tons of uncertainty in this race, and because we have a huge list of awesome candidates I think that uncertainty can be fun and engaging.