Ok, so I might look like a real idiot a week from now if the news is all aflutter with stories of GOP chaos in trying to find a new Speaker. Still, I’m betting when the new Congress convenes on Friday, January 3 the House will let Johnson keep the Speaker’s Gavel. For a while at least.
Let’s face it. There are factions in the razor thin GOP majority that want Johnson GONE. Probably not just out of the Speaker’s role but out of Congress. Add in that Hakeem Jeffries has made it clear Democrats are united in not saving Johnson and it’s easy to understand why Moses Mikey is on thin and cracking ice lately. That’s been the subject of a lot of news stories – will Johnson survive as Speaker or not. Then more stories on what happens if Johnson gets tossed aside! There’s no obvious choice for who would assume the Speakership. Personally I think “Gym” Jordan harbors delusions of grandeur about the House turning to him, but Steve Scalise will never let that happen. There’s bad blood between the two of them and while most (including objective observers) think Scalise would be the one who might be semi-effective it isn’t going to happen. Those two cancel each other out. Which leads us back to the question of WHO will take over if Johnson’s ousted?
As this article from The Daily Beast indicates there are mixed feelings, but at least some are fed up with the whole situation. As in of course Johnson should retain his position and it’s just plain stupid to not vote for him on Friday. GOP Rep. Mike Gawler calls his Party “stupid” for considering ousting Johnson. Well, that’s pretty blunt! The linked article notes how Johnson got plucked from obscurity when Kevin McCarthy got tossed out, and also says many feel it’s likely Johnson will suffer the same fate later this week. Lawler who is clearly a huge fan of Johnson details why he thinks that would be a huge mistake:
“The fact is that Mike Johnson inherited a disaster when Matt Gaetz and several of my colleagues teamed up with 208 Democrats to remove Kevin McCarthy, which will go down as the single stupidest thing I’ve ever seen in politics,” the New York lawmaker said.
“With that said, removing Mike Johnson would equally be as stupid. The fact is that these folks are playing with fire, and if they think they’re somehow going to get a more conservative speaker, they’re kidding themselves.”
Ok, so let’s say Lawler’s right and the GOP House would be shooting itself in the foot by not re-electing Johnson. The thing is, they be shooting more than themselves in the foot. Without a Speaker the House can’t conduct any business. As we learned with the debacle with McCarthy the ONLY reason the House can gavel into session without a Speaker is to debate and vote on selecting a Speaker. Remember, there’s no consensus candidate in that razor thin majority that can emerge on Friday or over the weekend. However the calendar will march forward to Monday, January 6. On THAT day the Senate heads over to the House chamber for a Joint Session of Congress to count and certify the Electoral Votes.
Bluntly put, without a Speaker the official certification of Trump’s win will be put on hold. Until a new Speaker is chosen. I don’t think Trump is going to like that one bit. Neither will a whole lot of other people including MAGA voters and remember, House members are up for re-election every two years. Even in blood red districts that can mean trouble as someone can primary anyone who ’embarrassed’ their Turd-God Orange Emperor. I’m sure that’s something that’s being quietly passed around between GOPers in the House this weekend and it will continue to be all week long. So there’s that.
There’s something else. McCarthy became the only Speaker to ever be voted out (one other attempt was made over a hundred years ago but it failed) on a motion to vacate the chair. Big as the mess was replacing him, there was an even bigger and longer mess electing McCarthy in the first place. One of the (many) deals he made to get his grubby hands on his precious gavel was a change in House Rules. For those who don’t pay attention to such things at the very beginning a package of what can be called ‘operating rules’ for the ensuing session of Congress are adopted. It’s mostly mundane stuff that changes little but in 2022 there was something significant. The rules were changed to allow a SINGLE House member to bring a privileged motion to Vacate the Chair. It used to take quite a bit more. However, McCarthy agreed (Gaetz of course was a driving force) and ole Kevin had that sword hanging over his head his entire tenure.
If it comes down to it Johnson will quietly offer the same deal to keep the gavel. It should be tougher to oust a Speaker but we’re talking the GOP here so expect this to be the deal that is cut. Trump and the entire GOP would be embarrassed as hell if Congress can’t perform a simple ceremonial act on Monday, January 6 because the House GOP couldn’t get its sh*t together and elect a Speaker!
For those reasons I say focus on other matters because for all the speculation by Friday it will have all been worked out. Moses Mikey Johnson will retain the Speaker’s Gavel. For now. Alas, like McCarthy his days will be numbered and we can even predict when it will all come to a head. In a few months when the CR to keep the government funded will expire, or perhaps earlier when the debt ceiling Trump couldn’t get passed in the just closed Congress has to be raised. But that will be then. The real action we should be concerned with is and will be taking place over in the Senate with confirmation of Trump picks for his cabinet.
I wonder who is on the scaffold committee for January 6th this time if it doesn’t get resolved?
I love the way that Lawler talks like it was the Democrats’ fault that McCarthy was dumped.
” . . . when Matt Gaetz and several of my colleagues teamed up with 208 Democrats . . . .”
Yeah. “Several . . . teamed up with” Democrats like it wasn’t Gaetz and those “several” GOPers who led the whole move to dump McCarthy in the first place. Lawler seems to forget that it’s NOT the Democrats’ place to vote for a Speaker of the House who originates from the other party (just as I don’t believe any GOPer has ever crossed the aisle to support a Democrat for the post–at least, not in the past couple of decades; maybe back in Tip O’Neill’s time, there might be some party-line crossings but certainly never since the start of this century). The whole fiasco lay solely at the feet of the GOP. Lawler might also want to recall that Margarine Traitor Greene was the one who finagled the “motion to vacate” thing to just a SINGLE whiny little rhymes-with-witch that led to McCarthy’s removal in the first place.
Those who forget history…well you know the rest.