In Ukraine, The Tide Has Already Turned

No, I promise, I’m not chasing moonbeams, nor am I blowing smoke up your ass. But I have a somewhat unique combo going for me, I happen to know a little about war and strategy, and I’m stuck at home all day, every damn day. And over the last couple of days, I’ve seen and heard several things that taken alone mean little, but when put in context form a complete puzzle.

For starters, former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul made an interesting point a day or so ago. We’re still waiting for the second Russian assault of the war, in and around Donbas. My personal feelings are that the russians are scared shitless, but that’s neither here nor there. McFaul’s observation was that Putin himself had announced that the Great battle for the defense of Donbas was about to begin.

There’s a single word that doesn’t belong there that is a loud fire alarm, but apparently Putin didn’t realize it. When you invade another country, regardless of the reason or excuse, the word defense should never pass your lips. If you’re invading, your goal is to capture land, not defend it. Putin’s use of that word is a subliminal admission that Putin knows he is never going to occupy and annex Ukraine.

Don’t go anywhere, there’s plenty more. In separate segments, two different analysts forecast deep problems for Putin and Russia. The first one said that most analysts agree that Russia has already burned through 40% of its armored vehicles, and almost 50% of their attack aircraft, both planes and attack helicopters. The second one stated that analysis suggested that Russia had already burned through almost 70% of their precision aim missiles. Those bad boys go for about $1 each, and all of them take months to build. With the sanctions choking his budget, he’s going to have a real problem with replacements in very short order.

But now we come to the fun part, at least for us, if not for Putin. Because Vlad the Imp, playing the part of Alice, has literally fallen through the looking glass. Where everything is upside down, and as Charlie Manson said, No sense makes sense. Let’s go through it together.

When Putin decided to go into Ukraine, on paper it was like having Alabama play Middle Tennessee State in football. Russia was a world superpower, with a newly upgraded military, numerical superiority, and one of the best trained in the world. While Ukraine had a smaller army, a lower defense budget, and mostly armed with Cold War cast off Soviet shit given to them by Russia when they were still a satellite.

But it was all wrong. The new Russian armaments and equipment turned out to be second rate shit, thanks to Russian corruption in the Military industrial complex. And while the Ukrainian military has spent the last 8 years becoming battle hardened and proficient fighting pro Russian separatists in Crimea and Donbas, while the majority of Russian ground forces are post high school kids doing their two year compulsory service, and trying to impress Russian girls with their shiny uniforms.

But here’s the part I really love. Obviously Vlad the Imp is really scraping the bottom of the barrel, because Teri saw an article on Flipboard that reported that Putin is ordering all of his old, Cold War armor and artillery out of mothballs to send to the from in Ukraine. They already had second rate shit, and now they’re calling up third rate shit to fight with. Payback is a bitch.

Yeah, you say, but what about the Ukrainians? Wadda they got left in the tank? Oh shit, I dunno, let’s see. Thanks to Putin, they are now receiving 100 US 155 mm howitzer cannons, and tens of thousands of shells. They now have thousands of Stinger and Javelin missiles that knock tanks out, and knock aircraft out of the sky. They’re getting a couple of hundred armored personnel carriers. They’re getting surface-to-sea missiles to send more russian warships to Davy Jones locker. They’re getting millions of rounds of ammunition, as well as repair parts to get their busted fighter aircraft back into the air. And oh yeah, they’re getting entire batteries of surface to air missiles to knock Russian missiles and aircraft out of the sky.

As the Popiel television ads used to say, But wait, there’s more! They now have a few hundred Switchblade suicide drones, loaded with explosive, and capable of taking out a tank or artillery piece from more than 30 miles. And Ukraine is proudly taking possession of more than 100 Ghost drones, drones built to Ukrainian specifications by a US military contractor. Christmas came early this year for Volodimyr Zelensky.

Are you catching the delicious irony here? The Looking Glass moment? Russia went into this war with allegedly the best trained, best equipped, most advanced military in the world outside of the US. And now, with everything literally on the line, they’re rearming with 30 year old Soviet shit, Meanwhile, Ukraine is literally bursting with the newest, most modern toys of military destruction the world has ever seen. Oh yeah, and they have an NCO officer corps for battlefield flexibility. Simple question. Who’s really in the driver’s seat right now? Don’t touch that dial.