In Early General Election Polling, Look For 2 Things. Incumbency, And The Magic Number

I know I’ve said this before, but I’m going to say it again, because it’s critical to what comes after. If you’re smart or lucky enough to be elected to the congress, or statewide office, you’re basically on the government gravy train for life.

The congressional incumbent retention rate is 94.6%. For good reason. You got elected the first time because people liked and trusted you, If you don’t betray them, why would they change? You already have a district or statewide campaign structure, a dedicated donor base, and name recognition. Just don’t screw up.

When I spoke of The Magic Number, I was of course referring to the electoral magic number, 50%. 50% +1 is what it takes to be elected. If you’re an incumbent, you have already breasted that tape at least once. And it has to be your Holy Grail for reelection. After all, you have all the advantages.

Now, let’s turn this to current conditions. As more states ho9ld their primaries, and the races are defined, the more early polling is coming out for the marquis races. And what we’re looking at is not good news for the GOP candidates.

Let’s start in Georgia, and an example of how it’s done right. The Reverend Raphael Warnock is up for a full term. GA is a red state maybe trending purple, Biden won it by 12,000 votes in 2012. The GOP views this as a prime pick up seat in 2022.

So who did they nominate for this honor? Former UGA tackling dummy and journeyman NFL player Herschel Walker, who apparently can’t string 2 coherent sentences together. The results? In a poll I saw today, it’s 50-40% Warnock, with 10% undecided. Exactly what an incumbent wants, hit the 50% mark.

Let’s stay in Georgia. Incumbent GOP Governor Brian Kemp stole the 2018 election by purging 65,000 largely African American voters from the voting rolls in the weeks leading up to the election. Stacey Abrams is up for the rematch.

The poll I saw today shows Kmp up 47-44%. This should have the Kemp campaign ordering Maalox by the boxcar full. Kemp had a Trump inspired primary and got 57%. He can’t diddle the voting rolls this time. That margin is at the edge of the margin of error. Kemp is in trouble.

Now, let’s move on to Wisconsin, where the news is even worse for the GOP. 2 term Senator Ron Johnson is up for reelection. He should be golden with his donor base, and statewide name recognition. Add to that the fact that he is one of Traitor Tot’s most avid supporters.

There is no official polling for the Senate race in Wisconsin yet, since the primary is next Tuesday. But there is a theoretical matchup poll out today pitting Johnson against presumptive Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes.

Ron Johnson may want to order Chivas in the 55 gallon drums. The poll shows Barnes leading Johnson 47-45%. I can’t tell you how terrible this is. Johnson got elected twice, he has every advantage for reelection. If he’s not only at 45%, but already trailing Barnes by 2 points, that can only mean one thing. The majority Wisconsin voters have turned against him.

As the primaries wind on, and more and more November elections are set, more polling will be coming out. In both the House and the Senate, when you look at polls, look at 2 things. First, who is the incumbent? And when you look at the poll, is the incumbent running over 50%? Remember, primaries are caca. There are multiple candidates, which makes it difficult to get 50%. But the general election tends to be mano-a-mano. If an incumbent, especially a GOP incumbent is underwater, they’re in trouble.