This has been driving me freakin’ nuts for months now. Florida Governor has been playing a con for many months now. Dropping 10 gallon hints that he’s running, but not actually taking the plunge. Which is stupid, since you can’t actually begin to fundraise for the campaign until you file the paperwork and announce. The worst of both worlds. Trump hammers you, and you’re not making any money.
But something kept nagging at me. Look, DeSantis is running on a platform of being Trump without the baggage. And yet in all of this time, DeSantis has never once specifically listed any of Trump’s baggage, and showing why he’d be a better alternative. Trump keeps slapping him around like a tetherball, and DeSantis just keeps smiling, ignores him, and keeps on keepin’ on.
I knew that reminded me of somebody else in GOP politics, and I just unraveled that ball of string today. When Trump ran back in 2016, one his better regarded rivals going in was Texas Senator Cancun Teddy Cruz. Only he was Calgary Teddy Cruz back then. But I could smell trouble on Paradise right from the start.
There was just something about the pompous, arrogant, wealthy, condescending Cruz that really pissed Trump off, even on a visceral level. Maybe because the media and polling showed Cruz as a serious threat. Whatever, Trump went at Cruz like a feral civet cat, and Cruz just kept shrugging it off and ran his race.
Because Cruz had an actual campaign strategy, and also a hunch. He correctly saw Traitor Tot as an azz clown, and an impulsive one who, sooner or later was going to crash to the ground like The Hindenburg. And so Cruz just keeping making soft overtures to Trump’s base, and waiting for him to crash-and-burn, at which time Cruz would scoop up Trump’s base and charge into the lead.
But it never happened. Trump just kept getting more popular, and Cruz kept waiting. And then Trump engineered an article in the National Enquirer accusing Cruz’s father of being complicit in the JFK assassination, and posted a Glamour Shots photo of Melania next to a photo of Cruz’s wife Heidi, looking like the Wicked Witch of the West before Cruz finally got pissed off. But it was far too little, far too late.
And in all of this watching of Pissantis, I have found my missing link, and I can almost guarantee you that it isn’t going to work any better for Honey, I shrunk the Gov! than it did for Cancun Cruz.
Here’s how I see it. I have written a couple of times now about how the moderate GOP establishment is waiting patiently for somebody, anybody to take FrankenTrump off the field. Alvin Bragg, Letitia James, Fani Willis, Jack Smith, just get Trump into the kind of legal straitjacket that gets him out of the race. And I still believe that, as dimwitted as the dream is.
And guess what? That’s Ron DeSantis’ plan too. He already knows that he can’t beat El Pendejo Presidente in a straight up matchup with his base. So he’s not even trying. At this point DeSantis’ goal is to remain in 2nd place. Period. And keep making soft, gentle I’m your man goo-goo noises to Trump’s base.
And then finally, finally something in Trump’s legal scrapbook forces him out of the race, there’s DeSantis, ready, willing, and able to take up the Trump mantle, but without the specter of jail time to go with it. If DeSantis is already in 2nd place, Trump’s carefully cultivated base will make him almost unbeatable in the primaries.
*Spoiler Alert!*Â T’aint happening Dooley! For two reasons. First, Trump’s base is monolithic. If Trump falls pout of the race, they’ll scream and yell, maybe break some windows, but then they’ll crawl back under their rocks and stew.
But more importantly, Trump. Won’t. Quit! The presidency is his lifeline to a pardon, and delaying any state sentence for four years. And since nothing in the constitution bars a criminal defendant, or even a convicted criminal from running, and with his prolific fundraising capabilities, there’s no reason for Trump not to play the hand to the hole card. And in so doing, almost ensure that the GOP becomes a permanent minority party in national elections for at least a generation. The man is as toxic as Ebola.
Man I’m glad that I worked that out! There’s nothing worse than that mental popcorn-hull-between-your-tooth-and-gum feeling. And as I reread it, everything I put in just fits together in a natural groove. We’ll see what happens, but with DeSantis getting his *ss kicked like this, I see no reason for him to even continue, much less declare if he isn’t gambling on Trump going down and opening the field. Time will tell.
DeathSantis is also trying to fine-tune his shtick to appeal to people outside his base of Florida rednecks, and it isn’t going over well.
Destinkus is a fascist.
America has a special place for fascists.
He reminds me of the Vernors Gnome with go go boots and a swastika armband….
He obviously has a problem with being a little man.
“The presidency is his lifeline to a pardon, and delaying any state sentence for four years. And since nothing in the constitution bars a criminal defendant, or even a convicted criminal from running, and with his prolific fundraising capabilities, there’s no reason for Trump not to play the hand to the hole card.”
There’s a very big flaw in that whole deal that can easily throw Trump’s presumed plans into absolute chaos: State prison.
See, while you’re absolutely correct that there’s nothing in the Constitution that bars a criminal from running, there IS the fact that if Trump is found guilty, sentenced and incarcerated before Election Day, much less Inauguration Day (a very big “if”), his whole plan goes up in smoke. The President CANNOT pardon someone for a STATE crime as the only person who can pardon a criminal in such a case is the State’s Governor and I doubt that even Trump’s most loyal MAGA Governors are going to risk setting a precedent themselves by trying to get the Federal government to intervene and order New York’s Governor to pardon Trump since they’re already in the spotlight trying to keep the Feds from overturning their anti-LGBTQ+ actions and their hyper-restrictive abortion laws; they start pressing the Feds, who–until Inauguration Day–will still be the Biden Administration for that and it wouldn’t take much for Biden to enact some very last-minute executive orders which, even if for one single day, will force all those states into their own court actions where they’ll have to explain why they think the Feds should force one governor into pardoning a convicted criminal while the Feds can’t force the states to abide by an Executive Order overriding state laws.
Now, of course, that means a court case has to move with near-light speed (which would be pretty remarkable) but it also poses an interesting legal question about how long a case can be delayed or even IF a state-run case can be delayed by presidential politics. As far as I can tell, New York DOES allow for “trial in absentia” but (without doing a far more thorough search–likely involving a whole lot of legalese that I don’t even want to try parsing or perusing) I don’t know if that can be done DURING an ongoing proceeding. It seems likely that, if the jury’s out for deliberation on the case, such a trial is moot because it’s in the hands of the jury at that point. But, if the case hasn’t gone to the jury at that point, we get into that legally uncharted waters.
Maybe dolt 45 can be pardoned by Abbott!!! I kid. But hot wheels already told his followers he is going to pardon a convicted murderer. Manslaughter maybe? But a killer for sure. Read he was an army sergeant at time. Still is?? Then should be kicked by army… now. What a cult of evil no good … oops Easter/bunny day. So later on …
I get what you’re saying and the comparison is a good. At least for now. I still think there’s a good chance DeSantis will go the way of Scott Walker if he really tries to run. Frankly DeSantis is being chickensh!t about the whole thing. Cruz had every intention of going after the nomination but in DeSantis’ case there’s always been a complication – if he formally declares (files the paperwork) he has to resign his current position as Gov. of Florida. So, as you say he’s making like Cruz and hoping Trump flames out. Remember, Cruz was the pick of the RWNJ Evangelicals who only boarded the Trump Train after they had no choice. It took some fancy footwork to make that happen. But the “Christian” “king makers” were mollified by Trump’s indifference on judicial nominees (they saw right through the guy and recognized his transactional nature) and willingness to let them work with McConnell and others to tell him who to put up for the federal bench and SCOTUS. For Trump that kind of “governing crap” was something he was happy to slough off on others in exchange for support because he envisioned the Presidency as a marketing of his brand thing and getting to enjoy all the “goodies” like British Royalty – making appearances and looking like a bigshot while leaving the actual grunt work of governing to the PM and Parliament. Tossing Christie aside (for VP) which Jared wanted him to do and picking Pence sealed the deal.
And remember one other thing – just who were Cruz’s key campaign operatives that ran things? KellyAnne Conway and Steve Bannon! That too, those vile and soulless devil in the flesh duo going to work for Trump helped Evangelical leaders convince the rank and file “Christians” they lord themselves over to swallow misgivings about all Trump’s character flaws and his crass antics and vote for him.
Anyway, DeSantis in large part put off formally declaring to keep his current job. But as you say, he needs to declare if he’s going to raise anywhere near the amount of money he will need although that might not be so tough with a cache of GOP mega donors out there to fund the PAC. Conventional wisdom was that DeSantis would wait until next month and the end of the current legislative session. However, I think all along he’s had promises from a handful of those mega donors I just mentioned that they’d make sure his campaign was flush with cash as soon as he was a formal candidate. This is where it gets funny for folks like you and me. Word is that behind the scenes talks with these people are getting frosty for DeSantis. Maybe because Trump’s attacks to which he isn’t punching back have cost Ron in polling. Maybe because their own polling confirms what we believe which is that DeSantis is clearly De Fuhurer in FL he simply isn’t going to “play” with voters outside FL. And if he’s not Gov. of FL and Trump doesn’t drop out even if more indictments come, he’s toast when it comes to the nomination.
Which is when he’ll go the way of Walker – into oblivion. Neither Walker or DeSantis have any good qualities. Only bad ones. But if this plays out the way I think it will with DeSantis becoming another Walker type early flameout, he will have proven he managed to combine the WORST aspects of both himself and Walker! That’s quite an accomplishment, albeit a dubious one.
I never saw Cancun as a threat to anyone. The man is almost universally loathed. I am still baffled how he gets re-elected. Yes, it’s texass but still.