I realized something today when I heard yet another snippet of former Vice President Mike Pence once again earnestly telling all and sundry who would listen that The Cheto Prophet was full of sh*t on January 4th when he insisted that Pence put Trump above the constitution and send the electoral slates back to the state. Pence has a strategy.
I know. Whatever strategy he has sure isn’t showing up in the numbers. Pence is mired at the bottom of the polls, and risking not making the first GOP debate in Milwaukee. But as anybody who has ever made a souffle knows, sometimes it takes time for things to cook properly.Â
Just look at Joe Biden in 2020. Coming out of Nevada, Biden was a dead man walking, and the media was talking about his campaign being on life support. But then South Carolina Democratic kingpin James Clyburn came out for Biden, the African Americans showed up en masse, and by Super Tuesday the field was clear for Biden to get the nomination. And the Democratic field was almost exactly the same size as the current GOP field.
Look at the current GOP mosh pit. Chris Christie is a Trump seeking missile, and Asa Hutchinson would love to be, but nobody will turn a camera in his direction. Ron DeSantis hasn’t had the penny drop yet to the fact that GOP primary voters are totally woke to what a sh*theel he is. And nobody else in the field wants to touch Trump’s legal problems with fire tongs. In fact earlier today VP wanna be Nikki Hayley proudly proclaimed that the reason she didn’t rush in front of a camera yesterday to decry Trump’s latest indictment is because She’s sick of relitigating the past, and wants to look to the future. Which is basically impossible with the 800 lb gorilla in the room.
A new poll today showed today that while 35?% of GOP voters would cast ballots for an indicted Traitor Tot, 45% would not, and 20% didn’t know. As I’ve written, a successful presidential campaign has 90-95% of the party, not the base but the party behind you on election day, and picking up 5-10% of independent and soft voters to get you over the top. Trump is 10 points underwater in his own party.
Follow me here for a minute, and I’ll make my case. Pence is in a unique position here. For four years he was Trump’s loyal animatronic Vice President. The Trump base only turned against him when he steadfastly refused to violate his oath to the constitution to give His Lowness another four years. Then they all wanted his head on a platter.
But you know what else Pence was? For four long years, he was another guardrail for moderate and Evangelical voters, the man closest to Traitor Tot, who could use his inside influence to try to rein in Trump’s worst impulses. And they trusted and respected him for that. Forget about the Trombies, Pence knows which side his toast is buttered on.
You know, for a Dominionist Evangelical, it took a hell of a long time for Pence to get the message, but he has finally had his Come to Jesus Moment. But now that he has, he’s off and running with it like Seattle Slew.Â
Pence has an edge. As low as he’s polling, he’s still the former Vice President, and that means he commands mainstream media coverage others can’t garner for as long as he remains in the race. And now that he’s finally tailored his message to call out Trump for being an autocratic despot, without getting personal, his wimpy *ss has hit his sweet spot.
Because that’s exactly what disaffected mainstream and soft GOP voters want to hear. Hell, most if not all of them voted for Trump in 2016, and maybe 2020, and having somebody like Christie come out trashing The Tiny Thumbs Dictator only makes them feel like idiots. Pence is now playing on their patriotism, steadfastly telling them that he was the only one who dared to stand up to Trump, and defend the constitution against Trump’s autocratic desires. And it’s pitch perfect for that crowd.
And Pence learned from the best. On his campaign website, Pence is hawking Too Honest t-shirts, a reference to Trump’s telling him he was too honest in not falling in line to overturn the election. This might help him get the 40,000 individual donors to get on the Milwaukee debate stage.
But isn’t Pence still a long shot? Yes, of course he is. But he’s also the only one with the chops, the gravitas, and the name recognition who was the only one to stand up to Trump for democracy on January 6th. And as the former Vice President, he’s also the only one in the field with the gravitas to continue to garnish mainstream media attention. Which is his greatest hearts desire. F*ck FUX News.
I’m not saying that Pence can pull it off. All I’m saying is that Pence alone has the right message for disaffected former Trump voters, and the availability to mainstream media to get it out there. And after seven years of a power hungry drunken sailor, just maybe Mike Pence is the calm, soothing, Gerber baby food candidate that the mainstream and soft GOP is looking for. And every upcoming indictment and court appearance only makes a Mr. Rogers candidate like Pence look more attractive to a voting bloc sick of the insanity. Don’t touch that dial.
I have seen it all. I have seen the day dawn when Murfster35 has something good to say about Mr. White Bread and Mayonnaise, Mike Pence. But your reasoning is sound. My issue with Pence is what his former assistant, Olivia Troye said about him, “He’s not evil, he’s weak.” I agree that late is better than never, but if Pence had any real balls he would have taken Trump on much sooner.
If your hunch is right and Pence comes up from behind, I will be amazed. Not to be a killjoy but do you remember a conversation we had about Beto O’Rourke back in the day? You were thinking he was going to go places as a presidential contender, too. Just saying. :))
Had to laugh at this: “This might help him get the 40,000 individual donors to get on the Milwaukee debate stage.”
It’s so amazing that the party that’s spent the past 20 years operating under the principles that “money equals speech” and “the darker the money, the better” and “don’t reveal our dark money donors” SUDDENLY feels the need for a number of “individual” donors for a candidate to take part in a silly debate.
It’s a good hunch. Pence has the great advantage over the other candidates that he will figure prominently in trump’s trials. If he plays that exposure well, he could rapidly rise to become a real threat. People are going to be so frazzled by these trials and trump’s tantrums that anyone offering respite will be highly attractive. For many on the religious right, Pence or Tim Scott could be the safe port in the storm.
I wonder where “Mother” figures in to this new talk from Pence. It’s always amazed me that on Jan. 6 she and the rest of the family were there with him at the Capitol. The counting of electoral votes is a pro forma thing, and while there’s been a couple of rare cases with a bit of showmanship by a couple of Congress Critters it’s a ceremonial thing. People taking part often have family and friends present and while Pence (and “Mother”) had hopes of Pence sliding into the front runner’s spot for the 2024 nomination they knew damn well that unlike every President before him Trump wasn’t going to just fade away and “write” books & give speeches and make what to most people (even rich ones) a small fortune – a less than savory “tradition” started by Reagan. No, they knew that Trump would likely want to try again and that the ceremony that day might be Pence’s swan song even as they hoped his presiding would make for some wonderful footage for campaign commercials we’d be seeing right now in advance of the primaries. And photo ops with his family too.
Either way, it was a big day for the Pence family so they were there. Without knowing it that mob was less than fifty feet away from them, and had they gotten their hands on Pence they’d have grabbed “Mother” and the rest of the family too! I shudder to think of the scene we’d have witnessed and I expect more than a few members of the Pence family have woken up in a cold sweat from nightmares. That’s why I never understood Pence’s continued attempts to talk nice about Trump. And we all know that “Mother” has always played as significant a role as political advisor as Casey DeSantis has been to Ron.
Pence wants to be President more than anything. Including having a face-to-face with his Jeebus he claims to worship. Trump has been publicly dumping on him since Jan. 6 and on that day did so quite specifically to the crowd to help jack them up for the assault on the Capitol! Why the hell did it take so long for Pence and “Mother” to get the memo? But it appears they finally have. We’ll see if Pence continues to talk like he did yesterday. If he does this could get interesting and fast. I still don’t think he can win the nomination, but if he keeps Trump from getting it another stint as VP, or rather a swan song as a VP candidate on a losing ticket is in the cards for him.
If former guy only has 35% of ‘pube voters behind him and he needs 90-95% of the whole party, he’s a bit more than 10 points underwater.
Now the math is out of the way, I cannot imagine a more loathed person to the ‘pube base/magats than pence. He was the public face of the betrayal of trump and they wanted to hang his ass before he even did the E.C. count. The magats are stupid enough to think pence was more than a figure-head in the E.C. counting exercise; that he could have stopped the counting or accepted false elector slates. That he did neither had to be a kick in the balls to those people. I do not think there is a chance in hell he can get those voters and without them, he may or may not have a chance at the nomination, but he has zero chance in the general. Quite frankly I doubt he has a chance at the nomination. And the evang xtians? They have been happier than a pig in sh*t with trump so apparently morals and all that mean bupkis to them (which we know but now has been on display to the world).
Still, this will be an interesting election primary and general election to watch since there is the possibility we will be watching the final destruction of the republican/trump party. It would be nice to be able to say “I watched the ‘pube party crash and burn in 2024”.
Those who are “sick of relitigating the past” will be condemned to repeatit.
Anyone who lived through Nixon will get what I’m suggesting here.