How The MAGA Wing Of The House Will Flip The House back To The Democrats In 2024

I have been bullish on the Democrats retaking the House in 2024 for several months now, for reasons I’ll explain below. But now, with this fresh news, I’m rapidly approaching nocturnal emissions.

I wrote more than a month ago that what to watch for coming off of the Thanksgiving holiday was to see how many incumbents in the House are retiring rather than risk another brutal campaign for a lousy $174,000 a year, especially with Traitor Tot atop the ticket.

Well, it’s started, and with a bullet. According to The Cook Report House retirement announcements are nearing a record level, on both sides. Why was I already bullish on the Democrats for 2024? Let me count the ways. For starters, due to GOP overreach in solid red states, their gerrymandering efforts reached the ridiculous level, and even red state Supreme Courts started demanding redraws, backed up by SCOTUS. This is going to lead to a flip of five safely red held seats in 2024, basically erasing the GOP’s original majority in the House.

Add to that the fact that the Democrats have vastly overperformed in the 2023 special and off year elections, a nice bell weather by past Democratic performances. Also, santos on or off the ballot is going to be a Titanic anchor around the necks of GOP moderate incumbents in neighboring districts. The special election for his seat in February or March of next year should be a nice canary-in-the-coalmine as to just how much trouble they’re in next November.

But the incredibly high number of incumbent retirements on both sides changes the paradigm heavily in favor of the Democrats. For the simple reason that at this point the Democratic and Republican parties are as different as day and night. Even when evaluating the parties themselves.

We’ll start with the Democrats. Starting in 2018 the Democrats had to face down the issue of a generational change in the power dynamic in the party. And they handled it damn near flawlessly. In 2018 Nancy Pelosi entered into a power sharing agreement with the young progressives, and honored it, giving positive young guns positions in party management and grooming them. Asa result, the new breed of Democratic leadership in the House is firmly in place, led by the next Speaker of the House, Hakeem Jefferies.

Many of the retiring Democrats are from safe districts, so that’s not really much of an issue. But ask yourself this. In competitive blue or swing districts, who is going to be replacing the incumbents on the ballot? It will be progressive and moderately progressive younger Democrats who are not only in tune with House leadership, they’ll also be in tune with their districts and constituencies. The changeover should be smooth and easy.

But what about on the GOP side? Well, it’s the usual dogs breakfast of dysfunction we’ve all come to know and hate. For God’s sake! Patrick McHenry, the faux Speaker of the House for a couple of weeks there during the McCarthy fiasco is only 48 years old, and the only consensus replacement the GOP could find in the breach. But McHenry has had enough of the bullsh*t, and announced he’s voting with his feet. Even funnier, rumors are swirling hot and heavy around the Capitol that former House Squeaker , and world class sour loser Cave-In McCarthy may pull a world class cheap shot and announce his immediate retirement during the Christmas break, never bothering to come back to Washington at all. Forcing yet another March special election.

But here’s where the wheels fall for the GOP, and why I’m so bullish. In 2018 and 2020 the MAGA Trump cabal pretty well purged the GOP House of non MAGA members. And in doing so, helped to inspire a 40 seat thrashing. The moderates who survived were those in marginal districts and true swing districts, who were in close touch with their constituents, and could survive MAGA challenges from the right.

And to a large extent, those are the GOP incumbents who are retiring next year. The situation in the party has only gotten worse, and while they may still be able to survive, why put themselves through a Godsmack mosh pit of a primary against a far right challenger? So that if they survive they can go back to Washington in January and resume putting up with the endless MAGA bullsh*t? They’re voting with their feet for their sanity and the protection of themselves and their family.

And now I’ll ask you the same question I asked on the Democratic side. Who will replace them on the ballot? Almost certainly not a moderate GOP candidate like the retiring member. Why would they want to put up with endless death threats and hate messages and e-mails, just to go to Washington and put up with a chamber full of the same kind of knuckleheads?

It will end up being a bunch of primaries featuring far right MAGAt’s. You know, the kind that couldn’t oust the moderate incumbent in previous primaries? And if they couldn’t do that, what do you think their chances are in a general election against a well funded, motivated Democratic opponent who actually offers their constituents solutions instead of grievances?

That’s the reason I would put cash money on a bet that the Democrats easily retake the House next November, if only the bookies out here would give me decent odds. I may have to contact that bookie in London. The only reason that the GOP regained control of the House in 2022 were those 30-50 moderate GOP members who tipped the balance. Don’t take my word for it. Why else did we spend over two weeks waiting for the House to be called until those final critical west coast swing districts were called? And if those incumbents are bailing out, only to be replaced by MAGA mental midgets, what do you think happens next?

I thank you for the privilege of your time.