Lordy, lordy, lordy, doesn’t time fly when you’re having fun, trying to dismantle one of the only two national political parties in the US? The title may sound funny, but the historical results sure as hell weren’t.
Cast your mind back to 2012. The Democrats had just finished winning the national popular vote for the 5th time in the last 6 general election cycles. Then RNC Chair Reince Priebus wanted answers, and his credit, for once a politician wanted actual answers, and not useless band aids that left them blameless. So he commissioned an honest autopsy report.
The 47 page was as brutal as it was short. Basically, the report stated that the GOP was dying of natural causes. It was dying of old age. Due to their reliance on a steadily aging, scared white base, strict adherence to outmoded ideologies, and reliance on racist and far right Evangelical zealots, their older base was dying off, and they couldn’t attract younger, more vibrant blood.
The solution was simple and straightforward. Begin to gently but firmly permanently separate themselves from the racists and religious loonies, loosen up, and hold a national conference to update their party platform in a manner that was more open and accommodating to minorities and alternate lifestyles.
In closing, the report estimated that it would take 1.4-2 national election cycles to complete the process, during which time the GOP might well not be seriously competitive for the presidency. The upside was that once the process was complete, the party would once again be able to recruit younger voters and become more competitive nationally.
Priebus wholeheartedly supported the autopsy results, and wanted to begin the process. The rest of the RNC was aghast, for one simple reason. They were just coming off of 2 losing campaigns to America’s first African American president. The thought of remaining uncompetitive at the national level until at least 2020 was intolerable. So they cut a deal and took one last bite at the rotten apple.
Here’s the McGuffin, and the reason for the lengthy lead in explanation. The logic is simple, and so is the calendar, but the RNC was stupid and greedy. If the RNC had let Priebus execute the plan, the 1st 4 years would have been Obama’s 2nd term, which only left them possibly uncompetitive for the 2016 cycle. But historically Americans are leery of giving the same party 3 consecutive tours in the White House, so a qualified GOP candidate in 2016 might have had a realistic shot. And 2020 would be a whole new ball game.
So where is the GOP and the RNC as we speak? In the ICU, on life support. They still have exactly the same unpleasant task in front of them they did in 2012, and all they did was to piss away 8 years. Sure they won in 2016, but they lost their party identity in the process, and the interim damage may have made the reboot almost impossible. For two simple reasons.
You never get a second chance to make a first impression. In remaining loyal to the racists and Jesus wheezers, the GOP literally gave away 8 years of young voters they could have cultivated. And letting Trump take over the party only increased the GOP’s reputation for racism, sexism, homophobia and intolerance. Hell they became the official platform of the party.
The GOP is now saddled with Guilt By Association. Trump engineered the takeover of the RNC and the entire party in the 2016 campaign. By inauguration day, the media was already referring to the GOP as The Party Of Trump. And in the last 6 years, not only hasn’t the GOP done nothing to combat that image, they have gone out of their way to embrace it.
Which is why I said that the GOP may have already waited too long. The original plan was that the retooling of the GOP would take 6-8 years. It should already be done. But Trump has left an indelible stench that permeates the actual fabric of the party. Even if the Trombies get pounded in 2022, and the sane GOP starts to take it’s pay back, I figure it will take 4-6 years of internal fighting to make the Trump wing too ineffective to matter. And that’s before they start the reboot.
Which is why it may be necessary for the traditional Republican Party to reconstitute as a new party under a different name. If they can’t get rid of that Party of Trump moniker, then nothing else they do to the party as it exista really matters. Better to start over and let the Trimbies run this one into the ground.
So, Happy 10th Anniversary 2012 GOP Autopsy Report! And sitting here, I wonder how many former RNC members in 2012 are now experiencing buyers remorse for their shortsighted actions in 2012. The end result was to damn near turn their party into a national pariah.
I have no fucks to give when it comes to the GOP making the choice it did ten years ago, and getting to exactly what is inevitable as in tearing itself apart. Fuck em. MY problem is that they’ve done the same thing to the entire country and by extension the free world. We are no longer the clear cut leader of the free world. And never will be again and that’s going to be a problem for future generations. The free world gave us a pass for Bush 43, largely for electing Obama. Twice. And the GOP pissed it all away. The world will never again count on stability (longer than four, perhaps eight years) from this country again.
I agree with the notion that the sane people on the conservative side of the ledger need to form a new Party under a new name. Conservatives have a long history of naming shit in misleading ways so I’m sure they can come up with something that suggest being for everyone while still only truly being loyal to corporate America and a small, behind the scenes ruling class (i.e. the remaining Koch brother and others like him) pulling lots of strings behind the scenes.
In fact, I wonder if some informal talks have quietly taken place among some of them. Just tentative feelers, but it seems that corporate America and some of the biggest private donors have either close their checkbooks or greatly curtailed their spending to conservatives and especially the RNC now that Trump has a mortal lock on that institution. IF we managed to hang on to both chambers of Congress in the midterms and have some state level success I think early 2023 could get real interesting.
Not really sure what “state level success” you expect to happen since a majority of state legislatures are under GOP control and have been for at least TWO census cycles, including the whole redistricting process. And, it’s worth noting that when New York Democrats attempted a *mild* gerrymander, a REPUBLICAN judge rejected the plan and ordered new maps (with less than two months before primary elections); meanwhile, Alabama further pressed its gerrymander (even to the point of rejecting the very notion of a second majority-minority Congressional district) and when Democrats and minority leaders objected and took the maps to court–even though we had more than three MONTHS before any primary would be held–the REPUBLICAN judges denied the plaintiffs because there was “insufficient time” for new maps to be drawn for candidates to know where (or even if) they could run.
Romney appealed to old white men. Demographics are changing, us old white guys are on our way out. trump and the scotus are turning off women. I worry about young people being turned off by Biden. Obama always appealed to young voters, Biden does not. and young voters means diverse voters. I would hope these young folks would take control of their demographic power and make some changes. I am too old to expect great changes in my lifetime.
Ok so 10 years ago we have an “autopsy report”. Now apparently the ‘pube party is in the ICU. You know, we’re still not rid of the ass-holes, doesn’t look like we’ll ever be rid of them, and it looks like they might just turn our republic into an authoritarian regime. This does not sound like the ‘pubes are very sick at all let alone dying. They did not embrace the fixes of the report 10 years ago and it would seem they had no need to do so.
Any thinking leaning toward the ‘pubes going away any time soon is delusional at best I fear. Still, as a prognosticator I make a real good cook. I’ll just wait and see just like the rest of the nation will have to.
If Dems can squeak by with a usable majority in November, then they can get a lot of stuff done that will strangthen the hold on the government and cancel some effects of the worse excesses of state legislatures before 2024, and then we can see how many steps backward rethugs have actually taken. We just have to hold on and remind voters with short memories that the real culprit these last two years are rethugs in dem togas from AZ and WV, and that if we cancel their usefulness, things might change enough to save us for a few more years.