Just throwing this one into the mix, because this could lead to a comical result if it goes down as predicted. You’re well aware that Ron DeSantis has put all his eggs in the Iowa Caucus basket. And perhaps he would prevail there, ala Ted Cruz. But here’s something you haven’t seen yet: Nikki Haley looks to actually pose a threat to Trump in New Hampshire. Now, if she won there and DeSantis won Iowa and Trump lost the first two contests going out of the gate, wouldn’t that be a howler?
And again, in the real world, this is not that unusual. You well recall that Joe Biden didn’t start picking up steam until South Carolina. But then Biden wasn’t a narcissistic lunatic and the Democrats weren’t in a death grip that he held. So forget about what happens in a normal political contest. Wouldn’t it be a scream if Trump were to lose the first two rounds and then who knows? Maybe he could lose South Carolina as well. I admit to dreaming here, but take a look at this.
Pretty eye opening. Haley is definitely on the rise especially in New Hampshire. I think Christie should drop out and endorse Haley like immediately
— Matt Coskren (@mcsnepats03) December 21, 2023
The meltdown of him losing either NH or Iowa would be so exquisite. Especially to a woman. That'd eat him right up
— Bill DeMayo (@BDeMayo) December 21, 2023
Again, this is the sheerest speculation, whether Trump could lose Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s not impossible, let’s just say that much. And then that would raise another specter, which would be that of Trump running as an Independent, if he couldn’t get the GOP nomination.
I don’t think that will happen. I think that the GOP has pretty much hitched its wagon to his star and will go through to the bitter end. Nikki Haley is the hope of the GOP donor base. Whether she can deliver for them is an entirely different question.
I do expect Trump to be on the GOP ticket. But, if for some reason fate takes a different turn, which well it could considering all of his legal issues, then it could be possible for Nikki Haley to end up on the GOP ticket — and for Trump to register as an Independent. If anything would hand Joe Biden the presidency on a platter, Trump splitting the GOP down the middle with a run as an Independent would do so.
Although the issue there may be if Trump would register as an Independent, maybe he can’t be on the ballot as such because of the 14th Amendment issue. Although it’s anticipated that SCOTUS would kick the issue back to the electorate. And in point of fact, it would be a good thing for Trump to be nixxed at the ballot box, although I personally believe the “right” meaning legally right and morally correct solution would be for Trump to be precluded from running at all. He should have been removed from office during one of his two impeachments and we wouldn’t be facing this issue. Any of these issues.
The only thing you can be sure of as this wild presidential election year kicks off in a short week and a half is that there’s nothing to be sure of. There are a lot of crazy variables out there. But Rick Wilson has given us a date, at least. He says that by March 19, it will all be over. Wilson says that that’s the date that it becomes mathematically impossible for another candidate to defeat Trump in the Republican primary.
Not that there will be another candidate in the field after that day, at least not one who matters a whit.
Chris Christie’s (R-Green Room) all-in bet in New Hampshire will sputter and die, doomed but valiant.
Current It Girl Nikki Haley will lose in her home state, and crush the latest and last dreams of the old GOP donor class, the tech folks, and the private equity bros swooning over her as the Last Best Hope. She’ll lay a lick on Trump and madden him like a bull charging at a red cloak, but here’s no path.
If the hapless, graceless, feckless, and soulless Ron DeSantis makes it to Florida on March 12th, he’ll face a 50+ point electoral ass-kicking that will stain his and Evita DeSantis’s political career forever.
Enjoy being President of Yeehaw Junction Junior College, Ron!
Wilson also says, that post March 19, “the Republicans will flood the zone with garbage polling meant to alter the polling averages and to assert, assert, assert at every moment the condition and position of the campaign is a sure path to victory. This is to depress and dishearten Democrats and it worked well in 2020.” Maybe the poll you saw above is a garbage poll as well.
The lack of reliable polling data makes it all the much more difficult to predict what will happen next year. But that, too, is one variable that we’re going to have to cope with. My point in all this is that we need to keep our eyes wide open for all the variables because this is by far the most complicated and bizarre presidential election in American history.
Question: In that final quote from Wilson about the “garbage polling” and how it’s meant to “depress and dishearten Democrats,” what EXACTLY did he mean by “it worked well in 2020?” Is that a mistake on your part, Ursula, or is Wilson living in a world where Trump won in 2020 but, for some unknown reason, he chose to leave the White House and let Biden “rent” it? I know in THIS world, Biden won–not by a large enough margin that Trump’s claims of a “stollen” election could have been accepted even by his stupidest sheep and the Jan 6 insurrection would’ve been little more than the annual anti-Roe protests that took place before SCOTUS overstepped with Dobbs.
Here’s how the garbage polling thing worked. Yes, Biden won the popular vote with a solid margin nationally. The electoral vote? Not by so much. It was the exact same split that Trump beat Clinton by in 2016. Trump crowed about it (his win over Clinton) like it was the greatest Electoral Vote ass whipping in our history. In fact, (this gets complicated because of how the number of EVs had increased to it’s current number over time) his (and Biden’s) margin above the minimum needed to win was among the lower in our history percentage wise. Bush vs. Gore was the closest, but the last two elections aren’t what one could call big wins. Also, there’s that haunting fact that in 2016 77k individual votes spread across three swing states that Trump won made the difference. Biden won those same states and by more individual votes in the aggregate in them but all were still too close for comfort. That’s one reason Wilson’s argument that flooding the zone with garbage helped Trump. It gave hope to MAGAs and frankly other Republicans and probably caused some Democrats to say to themselves “What’s the point? Even after all he’s done Trump has all that support and can’t be beaten.”
Even kicking Trump’s ass in the national popular vote doesn’t mean as much as it seems at first glance. Objectively, after four years of Trump Biden’s margin should have been even higher. Yes, he got more votes than anyone in history. However stunning as that was, Trump still got what, 74 million himself? I was appalled and in despair that Trump got 62 million votes in 2016 but the fact he got over then million MORE votes in 2020 instead of 25-30 million LESS was even more so. It means tens of millions of Republicans and Independents, even if they held their noses voted for Trump in 2020, choosing him over Biden. It’s more than a little possible many of those people did so because polling numbers being reported by the media who incessantly focus on the “horse race” every time influenced them.
I could delve deeper into this including a lengthy discussion on the impact on Congress (both House and Senate) in 2020 but I do think that one reason Trump got so many MORE votes that in 2016 was polling that said he really had a good chance. Because of that people who might have stayed home, or even some (especially Independents) who might have voted for Biden went ahead and voted for Trump.
What would happen if haley and desantis beat drumpf in those two states? Well first of all his whining, weeping, and moaning would likely consume many days and take up much space in the msm: certainly faux and the rest of the RWNJ outlets would have their “news” cycles planned for at least a month or two. Secondly he would declare both elections “stolen” and demand not only that they not be certified (or whatever is done in primaries/caucuses) but that he be declared the winner of both.
Honestly, I cannot imagine any other scenarios.
My thoughts exactly. When the orange imbecile aka MOST INSECURE MAN ON THE PLANET /most insecure man on earth EVER (if you can come up with ANYONE, alive or dead, more insecure than that orange incompetent boob, I’ll send $50 to your Venmo) loses, he panics that he’ll be seen as the weak loser that he is and immediately starts bellyaching about how unfair everything is and how he’s being sabotaged and all the other loser shit he and his idiotic insecure supporters who self ID as alpha males do when they think words gotten out that they are just as inadequate as they feel.
DeSantis is doomed. Can’t run for governor for a third term under FL law without someone else as gov in between. It may be Bratty Matty. Or Moms fed up with the censorship may make sure he and his clones grasp the simple fact that book banning, anti-LGBTQ people, threatening to.arrest teachers who answer questions factually– aren’t what most parents want.