Flying Off Of The GOP Merry-Go-Round

Let’s try this again, shall we? Four years ago, I took some  good natured ribbing and doubt when I explained one of my long held political theories as to why I was so bullish on the 2018 midterms. And then the Democrats picked up 40 seats in the US House, and that was that.

It has long been my belief that nobody in their right mind walks away from a $180,000 a year part time job with world class bennies, unless you have something even better already in hand. And that’s what being a member of the United States House of Representatives is. Hell, the only professionals I know of with more time off than congress critters is professional football players. Nobody just walks away without a reason, and a damn good one.

In the 2018 midterms, the GOP House members started scattering like roaches when you turn the kitchen light on. By New Years Eve of 2017, there were already more than 40 GOP House incumbents who had already announced their retirements. Now granted, some of these were moving on to bigger and better political things, like running for statewide office such as Attorney General or Secretary of State as a springboard, but most of them were just bailing.

Well my friends, it’s once again that time of year. And this time could be even more consequential than in 2018. In 2018 you had Trump’s toxic personality and corrosive policies and statements. In 2022, not only do you still have the GOP’s fatal obsession with Trump and his interference, but you also have the ghost of January 6th hanging around like Jacob Marley, and that may drive fatal damage to the GOP.

We already have our first high profile victim, and he’s something. Anthony Gonzalez, a former Ohio State and NFL payer, and a rising star in Ohio GOP politics is calling it quits. Why? Because Gonzalez was one of 10 GOP House members to vote to impeach Trump after the Capitol Riot. And the long knives were already out for Gonzalez, with Trump supporting a far right Trombie to replace him.

Keep an eye out for this as we continue on down the road. Trump has already sworn painful retribution for all of those who voted to impeach him, and has also threatened every GOP House member who voted to certify the electoral college results.

This can set up a domino chain. Liz Cheney is already fighting for her seat, and I haven’t heard Adam Kinzinger say yet whether he will run again next year. But there were four GOP members from the Florida delegation that all voted to impeach Trump, so they’re already on the endangered species list.

Here’s why this is so critical. Members in safely gerrymandered GOP districts can just go with the flow and vote the party line with little fear or recrimination. But the  GOP voters split on Trump in 2020. Some independents and some women, especially white suburban women came home to the nest for the down ballot races, while refusing to vote for Trump, sending him back to Mar-A-Lago to work on his putts. It is highly likely that a large majority of the GOP yes votes to impeach were from highly competitive swing districts where incumbents were getting an earful from their constituents.

And there are a ton of them out there, and the GOP is still on parole with voters. Having the House caucus parroting Trump’s pap isn’t going to play well. And with the 2020 census showing a majority minority growth rate for the first time, and with the migration charts showing minorities finally branching out of urban areas and into traditional GOP stronghold suburbs, it is going to be harder for the GOP to keep drawing secure majority House maps.

And Trump isn’t the only one with a vested interest in all of this. Kreepy Kevin McCarthy has his heart set on becoming Speaker, and the only way he can do that is to purge as many of the remaining moderate GOP House members as he can in the primaries, as well as as many Freedom Caucus members he can pick off to give him a majority vote for Speaker.

For a political junkie, the 2022 GOP primary season may end up being more entertaining than the actual general election. It is going to be open civil war in the GOP House for these primaries. Trump wants revenge, and McCarthy wants a bovine caucus that will make him speaker. For every GOP moderate that bugs out, it only increases the chances of getting a far right Trombie in the general election. And at stake are what I project to be anywhere from 40-60 competitive to highly competitive swing districts that are chock-a-block full of voters who are not supportive of Trump. Trump and McCarthy may be paving the way to an even smaller GOP minority. For God’s sake, don’t touch that dial.

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