Mad King Donald is very predictable. This is why bookies lay odds on his next move, precisely because Donald is so simple minded and so easily provoked that it’s easier to predict his next move than it is for most people. And unlike Trump’s first term, where he was simply wallowing in the attention and grandeur of it all, he’s in don’t give a fck mode. He’s acting out against his enemies and in all truth, it might be more efficient for him to make a non-enemies list. It’s got to be shorter. It was well known that he was going to go after Jerome Powell after Powell spoke out yesterday and go after him he did. Here’s the prediction and here’s the payoff.

So is Trump actually planning to fire Powell or what? How far will the toddler in chief go? The Wall Street Journal editorial board is back at it again with a negative Trump piece. And they dare to point out the obvious, that: 1. Powell is telling the truth and 2. Tariffs are a tax. Oh, my. Rupert’s phone will be exploding soon. Run, Rupert, run.

Mr. Trump was reacting to Mr. Powell’s remarks Wednesday that the President’s tariffs complicate the Fed’s job of maintaining stable prices with low unemployment. “The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” Mr. Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago.

The problem for Mr. Trump is that Mr. Powell spoke the truth. Tariffs are a tax, which means higher prices for tariffed goods. Mr. Trump has imposed a minimum tariff on the world of 10%, which is roughly four times the previous average U.S. tariff rate of 2.4%.

That will be at least a one-time increase in inflation for imported goods that will flow into the Labor Department’s consumer-price data. The hard decision for the Fed is whether to look past that one-time increase and assume it won’t become part of consumer inflation expectations.

But there’s also mounting evidence that household and business uncertainty is mounting, which will weigh on the private investment Mr. Trump needs to spur growth. Consumer spending could ebb as falling stock prices cause the “wealth effect” underpinning consumer confidence to go into reverse. Many economists think a recession is on the horizon. […]

The world is also paying attention to Mr. Trump’s call for the “termination” of Mr. Powell, whose term runs to May 2026. The President often talks in private of firing the Fed Chairman, who wouldn’t go quietly. This would tee up a protracted legal fight, with market turmoil to match as investors awaited a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of dismissal. That’s the last fight Mr. Trump needs now.

If the President wants faster growth and less market turmoil, he can help by ending his tariff campaign. Then get Congress to move on a tax- and spending-cut bill, and press ahead with deregulation. The main lesson from Trump vs. Powell is that the central bank can’t make up for the economic policy errors of politicians.

But of course Mad King Donald doesn’t see it that way. Everybody is here to serve his whim of the moment, whether it’s the White House chef or the head of the Federal Reserve. How the entire structure of government is put together, the rule of law, the Constitution, the checks and balances on each branch of government, that’s all simply twaddle. Trump wants to cut to the chase and get to the bottom line which is always: believe his lies and follow his mad direction.

Unfortunately, he’s not the Red Queen and this isn’t Wonderland. This is real life. So now the question stands, will he fire Powell over one year early and put up with that legal shitstorm on top of everything else? If he does, and if he offers some Pete Hegseth-level kind of a replacement, look for utter market chaos. That one act alone could plunge us on the road to Great Depression II.

Right now Jerome Powell is the key adult in the room. Replacing him and his expertise with some Trump loyalist bozo is economic suicide. Frankly, I think even the likes of Elon Musk and Peter Thiel will talk him out of this one.

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9 COMMENTS

  1. Europe did NOT want Hitler’s war. Unfortunately circumstances forced the following choices: join the nazis,(if you weren’t on the arrest list), run,(if you’ve the money…but where is now the problem), or FIGHT. I have no money. Running is out. I’ll eat a bullet before I join these traitors and child killers. FIGHTING is really the only choice. I use that word because the French resistance didn’t hold town halls to convince the nazis of anygoddamnthing. They picked up guns. Maybe other nonviolent resistance will work in the long run. Hasn’t worked with any tyrant I know of. It always came down to armed conflict. Hell this country would never have existed or been saved without it…sad to say.

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  2. I would have liked to have seen Mr Powell add another sentence to his statement.

    “We do not believe these economic effects justify raising interest rates at this point.”

    That would set things up nicely, especially if President Trump’s top financial officers make it crystal clear what would happen to Bond yields if he did in fact force Mr Powell out.

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  3. Isn’t it funny watching the denizens of Trumpworld when their little world of ‘fake facts’ crashes into reality, (Trump included). They try and stay in Trumpworld as long as they can, saying the most inane things to further the foundational lies of their bubble of belief.

    But these bubbles have to pop when punctured by reality, facts, and truth.

    No, Donny, interest rates aren’t coming down. It’s because you’ve destroyed the worldwide trust in the dollar and trust in who runs the American economy. There didn’t used to be a risk premium associated with investing in US treasury bonds, but there is now, and that extra cost now underpins everything financial in the US, and you did that.

    You did that because you’re an untrustworthy, duplicitous, lying, convicted felon, and your ideas of what you can do, and do, are collapsing the economy.

    Things are happening, Donny, that you don’t like, that are now costing every single person in the country dearly, including your billionaire friends, and it’s YOUR FAULT.

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  4. Wait a second. Presidents do not have the power to fire the head of the Federal Reserve. Or at least that’s what we learned in high school civics, a course that Trump has obviously never taken.

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    • With citizens being snatched off the streets because they exercised their legal right of nonviolent protest, not charged with a crime, no evidence presented in a court of law, and deported illegally to a hell hole prison; then the DOJ, the President, and the sycophants in Congress, then go on the public airwaves LYING AND REFUSING A SUPREME COURT ORDER…what’s to stop them?
      I refer you to a scene in Dr. Strangelove where the president,(Peter Sellars), continues to try and wrap his mind around a nuclear Holocaust coming around the corner, due to a crazy colonel who set the planes in motion, and has the only codes to stop them. He grilled the general played by George C Scott by noting: general, I was under the impression I was the only one who had the authority to implement this action. Scott replied: yes sir you are. Colonel Ripper exceeded his authority. There’s your answer.

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      • Wasn’t it Teddy Roosevelt who sent the Great White Fleet around the world? Congress said they didn’t authorize the trip. So, Teddy said I sent them halfway around, you bring ’em back!

  5. Mad king Don-old is treading on dangerous ground.
    Messing with the yous and mes is fine and dandy, but screw with the holy “market” and you start hurting rich folks. And that simply is not allowed.

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