You know, if there’s one thing that most people who aren’t real inside observers or serious acolytes of politics love, it’s black and white absolutes. One side is up, one side is down, and the side that’s up is almost always going to get its way. That’s the simplistic attitude.
Bullshit! The GOP won the House by a narrow margin, but they have more than the 218 votes necessary to coronate a new Speaker, and start flexing their muscles. But what did we just see? A four day 3 Stooges marathon of the GOP majority slapping, eye gouging, punching, and kneeing each other trying to find a new Speaker. In the last four days the GOP did more damage to their chances of retaining the House in 2024 than the Democrats could do with $2 billion in advertising. But every single GOP fuck up will be right there, ready for them to put into ads anyway.
The simple fact is that for practical purposes, the Democrats are not in the minority, they’re in the majority. And the simple math bears that out. At the current moment, the results of the 2022 midterm election, with one empty seat, stands as follows, the GOP has 222 seats in the chamber, and the Democrats have 212. That gives the GOP a narrow 5 seat majority in the chamber.
But in reality, does it? The Democratic party at this time is monolithic, in every round of the voter for Speaker, Democrat Hakeem Jeffries netted all 212 Democratic votes. But what about the GOP. Well, let’s just take a look.
In the first 13 rounds of voting, Kevin McCarthy garnered 202 votes, while the Never Kevin caucus netted 20-21 votes. Meanwhile Democrat Hakeem Jeffries notched 212 votes in every round. And so, if the voting was based on a majority of total votes cast, Hakeem Jeffries would be the Speaker of the House right now. The Democrats have 212 votes, the GOP has 202 votes, and the GOP insurgents have 20 votes. The Democrats are actually in the majority.
And that holds true, even today. Because even in round 15, McCarthy didn’t get the requisite number of 218 votes to take the gavel. The only way he did it was to have enough Never Kevin insurgents vote present, instead of for another candidate to lower the threshold down to 216 so McCarthy could slither through. Kevin McCarthy is actually a minority Speaker. He doesn’t even have the majority of his caucus behind him. McCarthy is a Speaker in name only. He is beholden to a 20 member caucus of political domestic terrorists.
Which actually gives Hakeem Jeffries and the House Democrats the advantage, for all kinds of reasons. First of all, last night Jeffries completely mopped the floor with McCarthy. Every time he steps to the podium to speak, he’s going to make McCarthy look like some kind of unpolished rube from inner Nebraska. And in politics, just as in advertising, Image is everything. Jeffries will engineer it so that it always looks like the Democrats are standing for the people, while the GOP is wasting time and effort on bullshit investigations and culture wars.
And the Democratic House is going to have plenty of help from the GOP, just not so much the House GOP. because Moscow Mitch McConnell just signalled loud and clear that he sees a favorable Senate map in 2024, and as such, he is going to be willing to work with the Democrats towards moderately progressive legislation that his incumbents can go home and run on, as well as giving GOP Senate challengers some positive accomplishments to run on. The Senate is going to get some serious shit done.
Which is going to grab McCarthy by the old short-and-curlies. McCarthy sold his soul to the Freedom caucus, which means that they are going to have increasing control over what actually gets to the floor. Which brings up the other major pain in McCarthy’s ass, that pesky 20-25 member moderate conservative caucus. These are the guys that are going to make his life a living hell trying to get his rules package passed so that the House can start to govern, so to speak. But that’s just the start.
The moderate HOP caucus consists of mostly GOP suburban swing districts, many of which Biden actually won. They were sent to DC by their constituents to get shit done, and if it means rolling over the Speaker to do it, then so be it.
Which brings us back to a somewhat arcane House legislative maneuver, almost never used that I think you had better become familiar with, since I have a feeling you’ll be hearing a lot about it over the next two years.
It’s called a discharge petition. And depending on what rules package passes the House, it will give the Freedom caucus and McCarthy almost dictatorial control of what, if anything from the Senate ever reaches the floor for the vote. This will allow them to bury popular Senate bipartisan legislation simply by allowing it to languish forever in committee.
Which is where the discharge petition comes in. Any House member can put a petition before the floor to call a particular bill, House or Senate to the floor for a vote. The paper petition, signed by the applicant is laid on a desk at the base of the Speakers rostrum. The timer starts. and when the time expires, if there are 218 or more signatures on the petition, then the Speaker has no choice, the bill must be put to the floor for a vote. If it passes, then the bill is passed.
This is how Jeffries and the Democrats can use the system to bypass both McCarthy and the Freedom caucus. The GOP moderates want to govern, to increase their reelection chances for 2024. On both House and Senate bills with widespread GOP moderate support, the Democrats can shoulder the load for the GOP moderate caucus by bringing forth the discharge petitions, and let minority GOP moderate support carry them over the finish line. There’s nothing for the GOP moderates to fear from either McCarthy or the Freedom caucus. They’re all-hat-and-no-cattle, and the members can take their chances with the voters.
It’s all right there. By simple math the Democrats are not in the minority in the House. They have the largest consolidated bloc of votes in the House, and as long as they choose their battles wisely, rather than McCarthy trying to peel away five or more Democratic votes to get anything done, with use of the discharge petition, it’s the Democrats that only have to peel away five or more moderate GOP votes to get things done. Don’t touch that dial.
Jeffries and Democrats won’t have to make it look like the GOP is wasting its time on bullshit investigations and culture wars because that’s EXACTLY what they will be focused on doing! All our people have to do it point that out, while also noting the real and important stuff Democrats and a handful of Republicans that actually want to get the people’s business done are doing. Yes, there are a handful of nutjob billionaires out there willing to fund the KKKrazy KKKaucus antics, but CEOs and Wall Street want stability. They will hate it but they will more than hedge their bets and become temporary allies of convenience to Democrats.
And those billionaires might start finding it pretty damned lonely out there, especially when the big banks/Wall Street start making their lives difficult. Which can be done. Whatever friendships they’ve got in the financial industry will get set aside when the lenders decide their bottom line (which is always better in a stable economic environment) comes into play.
Regardless, we are in for quite the shit-show.
You know…I may mentioned this before but I have a theory on why these dummy billionaires thought playing with fascism was such a good idea. It all goes back to the now-largely-failed attempt to expand their markets into China during the 2010s.
See, while outsourced manufacturing DID make some headway, the Silicon Valley boys got burned the most on that front. They tried sucking up to the Chinese government with talk of how democracy wasn’t necessary for business. In turn, the Chinese took the opportunity to learn their tech, made their own version of it and gradually sidelined the original by decade’s end. Gotta imagine that stung…a clear message on how they’ll never belong, no matter how much money they had. So they eventually went “Fine…we’ll take over our country instead.” Small wonder they’ve got such broken tools in the House to work with now.
Have a feeling Pelosi clued her Padawan Jeffries into a few other House tricks that will play merry hell on any GOP stunts. And what, pray tell, shall happen when the indictments finally come down?
pelosi and hoyer will be around with the parliamentary bag of tricks. that should help a lot. not to mention that pelosi spent the last two years mentoring the new generation because she’s a good person and not part of a psychopathic mob like the goo
All my love and respect for the woman I call “the Dogess of the House” (my female twist on the word “Doge”, head of the old Venetian republic in Renaissance Italy). Having her as advisor to Jeffries is a bonus.
Just remember Pelosi’s not going anywhere just yet. Jeffries will be able to turn to her for some of her expertise on handling the opposition. Since Pelosi stepped into the Speakership for the first time (back in 2007), she’s managed to learn a hell of a lot about dealing with obstructive GOPers. (And, for what it’s worth, she first became a Democratic Party leader in Congress in 2002 as “Minority Whip” before becoming “Minority Leader” in 2003.)
Certainly explains her formidable vote-counting skills, doesn’t it, Joseph? Jeffries will be wise to keep listening to his mentor. Still, the decisions are now his to make so be prepared for a few she would never have done or you may not agree with. It’s his time now and good for him.
Well.past the usual Kabuki theater and into Noh drama which even educated Japanese don’t understand because the language bears no resemblance to.modern Japanese. They will retreat to perform art.
I’m going to say this as kindly as I can, Gillian: what did all those metaphors mean when translated into plain English?
Now, I’m very good at math, I have engineering and accounting degrees, so I need to know how:
GOP has 222 seats in the chamber, and the Democrats have 212
equals a 5 seat majority on the ‘pubes. Am I , once again, missing something (and it ain’t the math you know).
This is not an argument against the likelihood of the ‘pubes in swing districts siding with the democrats–I think that will happen occasionally. I’m just questioning this 5 seat difference thing if the democrats only have 212 seats.
because it takes getting 5 more seats to equal things out at 217. every seat moving to the Dems, is a seat lost to the GOP
We’ve been over this, Spike. A majority only counts if everybody is on the same page. Otherwise, that math you cited is meaningless. This last week should have taught you that the current animating philosophy of this GOP “majority” is “every man for himself and God against all.” It’s the exact opposite of unity or even leadership.
We’re going to right back here again, likely before the year is out. Then you will again see what that “majority” is worth.
The problem is still.Manchin and Sinema (now an Independent) who often vote with the GOP. We can still.block.bills and obstruct but likely cannot get anything passed. I am.not sanguine about so-called moderate GOP because they can’t be relied on to.oppose the crazies.
Yeah, no, WRONG. With that extra Senate seat pickup in PA, those days are over. Manchin’s only hope of continued political survival is staying with the Dems and he’s had plenty of practice on not pushing his luck. Independent or not, Sinema still caucuses with the Dems and has no muscle without Manchin. If you trust the man I call Not-So-Saint Bernard, you can trust her to be a good soldier for the rest of her time.
TRUTH…..Democrats have NEVER been a “minority” or “radical” (for that matter), in America! It’s always been the RICH, “leading the way”, towards oblivion!
AND THANKS TO MURPH WHO REMINDS US OF the fun REALITY of being in a huge camp of ‘LoyalOPPOSITION” AMERICAN STYLE
SEE ITS ALREADY FUN! and invigorating! And they are ALL campaigning for 2024 of course too.