We have met the enemy, and he is dumb

Before you believe anything, even from a trusted source, first put it up to this simple litmus test. In the country of TrashMAGAstan, normalcy and precedent have no place. It’s true.

  • In 2016 Trump defied odds, mostly with pervasive Russian help in microtargeted districts. But even with unified GOP government, he could barely pass a massive tax giveaway to the rich, and the day after his inauguration became the largest single issue global protest day in history
  • In 2018 the Democrats rode Traitor Tot’s fetish for outlandish and brutal domestic policies to a 40 seat spanking in the US House, basically making His Lowness a lame duck in his last two years
  • In 2020 El Pendejo Presidente got more votes than any American incumbent in history, and still lost by 8 million votes. The Democrats retained the House, and thanks to a pair of runoff elections, took over control of the Senate. And Biden came through with a world class first term in light of accomplishments
  • In 2022 once again Trump showed that he could f*ck up a one car funeral. The vaunted Red wave turned out instead to be a Red Tommie Tippee Cup spill. The GOP retook the House, but with an ungovernable rift and a razor thin majority. But the Senate was the story. Anybody ever hear of Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, or Mehmet Oz? Not only did the Democrats retain the Senate, they added a seat

And now comes 2024, and what should be a nightmare scenario for the Democrats. Not only do the Democrats have their two most vulnerable Democrats in red states running in a general election year, they have retiring incumbents in critical swing states Michigan and Arizona, negating the Democrats incumbent edge in those states. Fainting couches are being repositioned in weak kneed Democratic households all over the country. And all they’re doing is showing what ninnies they really are.

Life Lesson #1. If statistical probabilities were conclusive, then Illinois would never have made the Elite 8, and Michigan State sure as hell wouldn’t be playing for a spot in the Final Four tomorrow. That’s why they play the games, and why we hold the elections!

And when you look past the bland generalizations of the standard political platitudes, you realize that the map, however gloomy it may look at first glance, is actually extremely competitive, and may even slightly favor the Democrats. Let’s just take a brief look at each race, with normal political wisdom and history, then add in The Trump Effect

  • When it comes to Ohio, the GOP dream of defeating Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in the political equivalent of the Democrats dream of turning Texas blue. Six years ago, when the GOP and RNC actually had money, they and their Super PAC’s outspent brown and the Democrats $100 million to $20 million. And Brown still went to bed election night knowing he was going back for six more years. And now, thanks to Traitor Tot he’s facing a MAGAt car dealer with no experience in politics. with abortion on the ballot, I not only predict a Brown win, but predict Ohio will turn blue
  • Now let’s go to Montana and Jon Tester. When it comes to politics, I like to look at Jon Tester as a political Rosie the Riveter. By that I mean that he’s the perfect man in the perfect place at the perfect time. That bulky farmers build, that marine cropped hair, the fact that he honestly enjoys having pictures taken not only of him driving his combine, but fixing his freaking combine. Tester is the poster child for everything that is good and wholesome about The Heartland, and nothing that the GOP has thrown against him has worked, and neither will this
  • And now on to Michigan. While we won’t know the actual candidates until August 6th, US House Representative Elissa Slotkin is a strong candidate, with a campaign staff, fundraising, and statewide name recognition from her committee appearances on television. The Michigan GOP is the dogs breakfast, with two factions warring over exactly who is the state GOP, and are almost broke to boot. Add in the fact that the Democrats own both the statewide offices as well as the legislature, and have done popular things like enshrining abortion and making it easier to vote, and I lean this race Democratic
  • Now on to Arizona, and I’m loving this one. Current Democratic incumbent Kyrsten Sinema was facing heavy odds in a messy primary fight against House member Rueben Gallego. Sinema went independent to avoid the primary to run for her seat. But polling showing her running a distant third in a 3 way race, Sinema chose to retire to save her future electoral chances. Gallego has an open lane, and full party support
  • This is why I love this so much. On the GOP side, The Queen of the Stolen election Undead, Kari Lake is the odds on GOP candidate. And she just committed the cardinal apostasy of trump’s MAGA catechism. After spending more than two years filing multiple lawsuits screaming that the election was stolen, an Arizona election worker filed a defamation lawsuit against her. And as a result, in a deposition last week, she finally admitted that she had lost the election, and that everything else was bullsh*t. There goes her MAGA base vote. Hell, the RNC is still asking prospective employees whether they thought the election of 2020 was stolen.

So, when you factor in Trump’s almost magical ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, this senate map is nowhere near as daunting as it would be in a normal time, with two normal, functional parties, which we don’t have. But what we do have is the opportunity for Democrats to even pick up a seat or two. I’ll explain.

Let’s look at Texas. Raphael Ted Cruz is one of the most unpopular people in government. His own colleague, Lindsey Graham once said that If Ted Cruz were murdered in the well of the Senate, and the trial was held in the Senate, nobody would be convicted. And former Democratic Senator Al Franken summed it up nicely when he quipped, To know Ted Cruz is to not want to know Ted Cruz.

In a deeply gerrymandered red state like Texas, Cruz barely scraped by Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 3.5%. And take my word for it, 2024 Democratic challenger Colin Allred is even worse. A former NFL all pro linebacker, and former Texas US representative, Allred doesn’t just have statewide name recognition, he has national name recognition, very useful for fundraising. And he is already getting national media attention, where he never ceases to espouse his views, and remind the world that Cancun Teddy abandoned his own constituents in the middle of a statewide power outage where the cold killed scores of his own constituents. Texas may not turn blue, but Cruz’s Senate sure might, and I’m contributing to the cause.

One more. Let’s just look at Florida. Flop Gov Ron Pissantis’s tenure has been a nightmare, especially the 2nd term, where every law passed, constitutional or not was geared to promote his 2024 presidential run. The GOP and RNC hold Scott personally responsible for the 2022 debacle when he pumped tens of millions into piss poor Senate candidates in the primaries, draining the well for the general election. Abortion is going to be on the ballot in Florida in November, and a hot Democratic challenger could ride that wave to put Scott in the hurt locker.

And the reason that all of this is not only whimsical, and not even conceptual, but damn possible is because The RNC and the NRSC are damn near stony broke. Trump is siphoning everything he can scrape off for his criminal defense, and the RNC is complying by splitting the take. It takes a few million to run a successful House campaign, but tens of millions to run a successful Senate campaign. That idjit in Ohio has no experience, and no fundraising operation or base, and no help is going to be forthcoming from the RNC. And you can bet your ass that Traitor Tot will endorse a far right MAGAt in the Michigan Senate primary, and then leave them out to dry in a cash strapped GOP state.

This election on the Senate side is not going to be decided by the normal flow and matrices. Instead it’s going to be decided by money, in critical states, and Traitor Tot is hell bent for leather to once again snatch defeat from the jaws o victory. Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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  1. I’ve been saying for MONTHS the early polls were too early, and crap. I think Manchin’s (WV) seat will flip to Republican Jim Justice. But your analysis is assuring and seems spot on. If FL and TX flip, that would be damn epic!

    • Even if Manchin were running again this year and he managed to survive the Democratic primary, WV would still go to the GOP. He barely scraped by in 2018–a mere 0.31% difference against his GOP opponent; if Libertarian Rusty Hollen hadn’t managed to take more than 4% of the total vote, Manchin could’ve lost in 2018. It’s really tough to say because, on a county basis, Manchin received an outright majority in 20 of WV’s 55 counties while his GOP opponent, Patrick Morrisey received an outright majority in 22 counties with 13 counties giving neither an outright majority (they split with 9 favoring the GOP and only 4 favoring the Dems); those 13 counties accounted for nearly 105,000 votes with the GOP edging the Dems by fewer than 200 votes but Hollen received more than 4100 votes in them.


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