Come on everybody, sing along with Murf now! After all, it isn’t like The Pampers President hasn’t already burned the lyrics into our brains like the pledge of allegiance. “First I won Iowa, and then I won Ohio, and then I won Wisconsin, which nobody gave me a chance to do, then I won Florida, and then they called Michigan for me, and finally, they called Pennsylvania for me, and I became President!”Jeez, to hear him tell it, you’d think that Trump won by 3 million popular votes, instead of getting his ass kicked by the same number.
Does Trump really want to run again in 2020? Absolutely, no doubt about it. After all, Der Gropinfuror is above all an extreme narcissist, and the Presidency gives him unlimited opportunities for ego fulfillment at rallies all over the country, without even having to spring for the gas.And he’s the first President in US history to start hawking campaign donations for his 2020 reelection campaign like, the day after the inauguration. But will he actually run? That’s a much thornier question, especially since Tuesday.
For starters, Trump is the polar opposite of every previous President. Previous Presidents won the office, and then tried everything in their power to expand their popularity beyond their original base, to win over more voters for their reelection. But not Trump, in his case the exact opposite is true. Trump feels that he “owes” his victory to his base, especially the 70,000 that tipped the election. And they still lubs dem some Trump, but only the original, unfiltered Trump. And so, every decision Trump makes is geared towards whatever keeps that rabid base happy. Trump can delude himself with his popularity only as long as the rallies are packed full, and noting else matters. But last Tuesday night proved that his base isn’t enough. He put himself on the ballot, and failed miserably to win on a national level.
To name an old movie, this is “As Good As It Gets” for Trump. It is only going to get worse. Robert Mueller is no moron, he’s known since day one that his job was in perpetual jeopardy. But Bob Mueller is also a devoted, selfless civil servant, and a professional. I have no doubt in my mind that he long ago laid the plan for getting his report out no matter what happened to his position. The Mueller investigation puts himself, his son, and his son in law in personal jeopardy. And the soon to come oversight by Democratic chaired committees is only going to increase the pressure on him and his family.
Trumpenstein is also in deep kimchi politically. Trump lost more than 30 House seats last Tuesday, and will pick up no more than 2 Senate seats in exchange. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania now all have Democratic Governors, all were GOP controlled in 2016. And as for winning them again in 2020? If he was going to do that, he wouldn’t have lost them Tuesday night.Trump won 46% of the popular vote in 2016, and the GOP won 46% of the popular vote last Tuesday night. That is his ceiling, and it’s nowhere near enough for 2020. And if Trump’s current economic policies, especially his trade war with China continue unabated, the resulting recession has poll numbers in the mid 30’s in his near future.
Trump also faces a threat from within his own political party. Trump is rapidly becoming an existential threat to a functional Republican party going forward. The GOP lost almost 400 state legislature seats last Tuesday, along with 7 Governorships. There are 22 incumbent GOP Senators up for reelection in 2020, and they all saw what happened last Tuesday night. GOP incumbents in both the House and the Senate are going to have to look very hard at the political landscape, and decide whether he’s draining away so much of their core constituent support that his rabid base cannot make up the difference. Even a suicidal primary run by someone like John Kasich could be a bell weather that the “traditional” GOP can no longer run with Trump at the top of the ticket.
But the most important factor is Trump’s own ego. For his entire life, Trump has portrayed himself as superhuman. The greatest deal maker, the greatest lover, the greatest politician of all time. If Trump runs again in 2020, and loses narrowly, he can always scream about a “rigged election.” It won’t work, but he can delude himself about that the same way he has deluded himself about every other personal and professional failure that has befallen him. But if he runs again in 2020, and the electoral college numbers are reversed, there is no going back. He wil become what he has most loathed for his entire life, a LOSER! And that is the one outcome that Trump cannot allow to happen.
So, will Trump run again in 2020? As of right now, I say yes, nothing that has happened so far has been dire enough to force those first seeds of self doubt into his mind. But one thing about Trump, he has always known exactly when to bail on a failing enterprise before it bites him in the ass personally. If his fortunes decline far enough, quickly enough, you miht want to start listening for those two dread words, “bone spurs.”
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Trump will be in jail.
Trumpelthinskin began running for 2020 as soon as he was declared victorious in November 2016. Running is about the only thing he likes doing BC he gets people to send him money which he mostly pockets rather than spending on his campaign. He never wanted to be President and he still doesn’t. Whether he makes it to 2020 is the better question. So many things going against him: FBI/Mueller, 100’s of lawsuits, all the people he stole $ from or cheated, the stress of being Putin’s puppet, most US Generals, his poor health, being despised by a huge majority of the population of the US and the world, GOP leaders who look forward to backstabbing him as soon as it doesn’t serve their interests to back him, and now add to that the US House of Representatives. Most likely he will be sentenced and imprisoned well before then if doesn’t first die of a heart attack or stroke first. Good riddance although Pence or any other GOP-Nazi to replace him will be even worse for the USA.