Op-ed coverage in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s victory has unleashed a string of warnings that Trump-supporters will be some of the very first to feel the bite of his new policies – “They voted for this.” While it is true that every administration ushers in new policy impacting Americans – that is why people vote, it is rare to face such sweeping changes near-certain to have such a broad impact on every voter – or consumer. But it is impossible to promise new tariffs without ensuring that prices jump as but one immediate response. The impact of tariffs are further compounded by the commitment to deport all undocumented workers amidst what is already a labor shortage, with the inevitable price increases accompanying a lack of workers and concurrent wage hike in the labor shortage. It is all set up to make everything more expensive, stagnating the economy, with impacts sure to hit all from the very poor to the very wealthy.
Companies already have plans to factor in the face of these promises. And Trump hasn’t even raised his hand yet. According to a new report in the U.K.’s Telegraph, an economist finds the situation to be as predictable as it is scary – a recession that will hang like the sword of Damocles over the administration, ready to cut off any path to success – infuriating voters, many of them staunch Trump suppoerters:
Paul Mortimer-Lee of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the “ill-considered, rushed and damaging” combination of tariffs, the mass expulsion of illegal immigrants, tax cuts and spending efficiencies was “likely to tip the US economy into recession.”
Mr Mortimer-Lee said: “In a worst-case scenario, where immigrant expulsions are massive, tariff increases hit straight away and retaliation is swift and effective, GDP could contract by two to three percentage points.”
The single biggest factors to voters in Trump’s victory were the assertions that the economy was much better under him (Pre-COVID) and his fierce desire to deport all un-documented immigrants and close the border – all without a new immigration bill in place to make up for the losses. Given the typical Trump-supporters’ position on immigration, focusing on the impact to the economy is the strongest reason to pull back from the most draconian policies.
Florida has already suffered mightily under the response to their new aggressive anti-immigrant laws. Workers voluntarily left the state, leaving crops rotting, hotels scrambling, construction waiting. Now imagine an even greater impact encompassing local economies around the nation. It threatens to upend the current economy, called “the envy of the world” by the radical leftists at The Economist:
He said: “Expelling five million workers could reduce GDP by close to 2.5pc. Since expulsions would continue for years, the reduced rate of growth in GDP would be persistent – not a one-off shock like tariffs.”
Yeah, even with immigration impacts set aside, tariffs alone raise prices. One puts tariffs in place to protect domestic companies that face foreign government subsidized competition. This unfair competition is addressed with highly individualized tariffs limited to the product. They do protect American workers. Blanket tariffs provide no guarantees. And to the extent these tariffs “bring production back to America” – such a result takes years, the price increases can happen in weeks. All coming in amidst a stable economy.
Given that tariffs are to be imposed on “Day One” – so, too, would the prices increases. For a guy who ran on the post-COVID inflation that hit the whole globe, immediate price increases can (And almost surely will) turn voters sour at the same point during which the new administration most wants support – the first 100 days when other new policies are to be put in place.
Trump quickly reversed course in the first term (After tragic and substantial permanent damage already done) when the child separation policy went public and garnered such outrage. It is possible that he would quickly flip around again over tariffs and immigration if the situation goes south. But it is harder to reverse the harder to predict wave of economic implications once responses start rolling, certainly more so than stopping further child separation.
It is for this reason that an economic recession hangs over the Trump administration as a dark and very real possibility. The ramifications would be tough on absolutely everything it tries to do – and possibly fails.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and on X @JasonMiciak and now on Bluesky
And then they’ll just blame it on Biden – and their tame media will fall over themselves to justify the lie for them.
If we let them.
They will most assuredly blame it on Biden and his MAGAts will believe the garbage that spews out of his pie hole. The RW media will back him up as well and we know with all of their networks, podcasts, radio programs, and social media, deprogramming his cult members will be next to impossible.
When a clown rules the White House, the whole government becomes a circus.