You know, one of the reasons that there were so many Democratic nay-sayers jumping on Biden to exit the race was he was a drag on so many critical races for the House and Senate.
For proof they pointed to states and Senators like Casey in PA, Baldwin in WI, Rosen in NV, and Gallego in AZ, all in vulnerable seats who were running anywhere from3-6 in their races while Biden was anywhere from -7 to 9 against Trump. Less drag from Biden would make them holding their seats easier.
Chris Hayes did a deeper dive on this today on All In, and the numbers are starting to come in. In the past six weeks, Harris has ridden a moon shot launch of her campaign through a barn burner convention and beyond. And as such, it turns out the Nervous Nellies and nay-sayers were right.
Biden was running -7 to 9 against Trump in most battleground states. In less that six weeks, Harris is now leading by +1-2 points in every battleground state other than North Carolina, which wasn’t even a battleground state with Biden on the ballot, where she’s -1. She has basically wiped out Traitor tot’s battleground edge.
And it shows. As we speak Casey is +8 in PA, Baldwin is +7 in Wisconsin, Rosen is +13 in NV, Gallego is +14 in AZ, and Stein is +15 for Governor in North Carolina. If this keeps up, analysts are going to start taking senate races off the board for the GOP by late next month.
Hayes, along with Democratic strategists Alencia Johnson and Adam Jentleson started talking about one of my favorite subjects, Coattails. They pointed out that as Harris started to erase Trump’s lead, the Senate candidates started pulling away from their opponents. A classic example.
But then Chris Hayes brought up the McGuffin. It turns out that, at least in the current environment, coattails only goes one way. While Trump can’t crack 50% with a sledgehammer, he has remained steady at 48-49% in the battleground states while Harris’ surge in popularity is bringing new voters into the down ballot races. But the fact still is that Trump at the top of the ticket is still running 5-13 points better than the down ballot Senate choices.
Hayes had an interesting take on that phenomenon. Like a vampire, Trump has literally sucked out every last drop of GOP blood to keep himself above ground. There’s none left for down ballot GOP voters. They can’t run as Trump, because that only works for Trump, but they can’t run on a more moderate platform either, since all the base wants is Trump. There’s nowhere they can go, and nothing they can do.
Chris did introduce a note of caution, reminding everybody that normally people don’t start to seriously tune into politics until after Labor Day, and traditionally once people start to tune in, especially to the down ballot races those races start to tighten up.
But that comes with a caveat too. This isn’t a normal cycle. Trump has hardened, baked in the cake national name recognition and record, and so many of the down ballot GOP candidates are Mini-Me’s of Traitor, the more they tune in and compare, the better the races the Democratic Senate candidates run, the more they can open up their leads.
Which is when the threesome segued into my favorite topic, mainly because it’s my baby, my pet project, and you’ve all heard me talk about it before, but I can’t remember the last time a prime time host brought it up.
Reverse coattails. Harris kicked off her campaign with a sizeable popularity hole to dig out of, and she’s done an incredible job of chopping up Trump’s advantage in the battleground states. But the fact that she’s running +1-2 points against Trump while the Senate candidates are running +8-15, she has room to grow.
And the quickest and easiest pool to grow from is the Senate voters who were already with those candidates without giving Biden their plenary blessings. Let me explain.
There’s only one way that those incumbents were able to maintain leads outside the margin of error while Biden was underwater. They had supporters who weren’t sold on Biden. And at this point, just seriously starting to tune in , they may not necessarily be sold on Harris yet either.
Here’s your reverse coattails. If Harris starts showing up in PA to campaign with Casey, in WI with Tammy Baldwin, in NV with Jacky Rosen, and AZ with Ruben Gallego, they can introduce her to their supporters, they can priase her record and vouch for her bona fides. And the best part is that Harris doesn’t have to try to take any Trump voters, sh*t, he can’t get to 50% anyway. Instead she’s harvesting voters who were already in the Democratic camp, they just weren’t quite ready to call the preacher yet. Those Senate candidates can close the deal.
And nowhere is that more obvious and critical than in North Carolina. Right now Harris is -1 against Trump. But Gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein is an amazing +15 against the toxic Trumbie Marc Robinson. Harris has already made some 19 trips to NC during her tenure, so she’s doing the due diligence. But to my eye, Stein is doing a Trump, he’s motivating depressed democrats who have likely been sitting out. But if he can get them seats on the Harris Express, even a 1-2 point difference could flip North Carolina. And if Harris flips NC, Traitor Tot is toast.
As Chris Hayes pointed out, and I’ve said repeatedly before, normally most people start to tune into the race after labor Day, so these races, all of them tend to tighten. But we both agree that this is not a normal cycle. Trump is historically unpopular, with a shrinking base, and the GOP 2024 crop of Senate candidates is even worse than 2022, which I didn’t think was politically possible. This is one of those rare times when the conditions are perfect for reverse coattails, and if we’re right, it could literally change the course of a presidential election, and save democracy as we know it. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Electing V.P. Harris is only part of the job. Without the house and senate in blue hands, and also more states turning blue, we are still looking down the wrong end of a gun.
A tsunami starts way out at sea and grows as it reaches the shore. The Maga cult is scattered on beachchairs at waters edge, asking each other, ” do you hear something?”