Could 2024 Be A Redux Of 2018 For The Democrats? The Dominoes Are Falling

Every time a new President, from either party is elected, the first midterms are universally seen as a mid term referendum on the first two years of the administration. And usually the administration takes it in the shorts.

But there’s also what you could call a bell weather for those first all important midterm elections. And they’re called the off year elections. There are a handful of states out there like Virginia, Kentucky and Illinois who hold their state elections in the off odd years of the calendar. And in almost any off year, there will be scattered special elections for seats, usually US House seats that open up for one reason or another. And political addicts like me look at those elections to try to get a sense of which way the wind may be blowing for the next years midterms.

And the off year of 2017, Traitor Tot’s first year in office was particularly ripe when it came to special elections. Unlike most incoming president’s, for some reason His Lowness leaned heavily on recruiting rabidly loyal US House members like Scott Pruitt among others to fill his cabinet and inner circle West Wing roles. Trump was not a complete moron, he chose his toadies from safe, deep red districts. But throw in a couple of more GOP House indictments and retirements under scandal, and there was a whole passel of off year special elections.

And I was as happy as a piggy in slop. Those of you who are long time readers remember that I covered these special elections ravenously. Simply because the results that started coming out were nothing short of otherworldly. Even in deep red districts, in every race for a special election, the Democrats outperformed the GOP by a whopping average of 24 points. They didn’t flip a seat, but in several districts they turned a +28 GOP margin in 2016 into a +3-4 in the special elections. And in November of 2017, when the Virginia Democrats came within a coin toss of tying the House of Delegates, I started talking about a midterm flip of 40-55 seats in the House.

And now here we are in 2023, another off year. And we’re off to a good start. In Illinois, the Democrats not only reelected popular Governor Jay Pritzker to another term, they took control of the state legislature. And while there hasn’t been the 2017 deluge in special elections, Politico is reporting that in the special elections held this year, once again the Democrats are overperforming the GOP, this time by an even better 26 points on average. And as we speak, in the special election scheduled for tomorrow in Ohio, where the only thing on the ballot is a question on whether to raise the threshold for passage on a constitutional referendum from 50%+1 to 60%, the last poll shows the Democratic NO vote leading 58-23. This is shades of the Kansas referendum in 2022, which enshrined abortion in the state constitution 59-41%.

I know what you’re thinking. This is all historical bullsh*t. And as the Wall Street brokerage houses like to point out in their ads, Past performance is no guarantee of future results. I acknowledge that and accept. But y’all should know me better than that by now. Sneaky little bastard that I am, I kept stoppers.

If there is one unforgivable sin in politics, it’s losing. After all, if you sense a foul wind blowing, you can always resign, especially in the US House, and then come back later and run for something else. But if you lose, you’re polishing up your resume and looking for a cushy K street lobbying job. Or ending up on the board of directors at FUX News.

In 2017, not even six months into his first term, The Trumpster Fire was already a slow moving train wreck. No incumbent, in either party, depends on public polling. They all have private pollsters, and if they’re serious, they have the most scrupulously honest pollsters in the business, and that’s because their careers are reliant on the numbers.

And in 2017, even before we got to the holidays, there was a rash of GOP House incumbents that they were retiring rather than sail into a hurricane. You long term readers remember I kept an occasional running tally of GOP House and Senate retirements. By New Years, almost 11 months before the midterms, it was a near record number. And we all saw that happened in 2018.

In 2021, Biden’s polling numbers were terrible, and he had arguably the slimmest majorities in both houses in history. Worse yet, even the Democratic majority was fractured, moderates fighting with progressives, making governing incredibly difficult. And by the end of 2021, there was a rash of both House and Senate retirements. Hindsight being 20/20, I’m betting that most of those retirees wished they had stuck around, since the Democrats pulled off The Miracle on the Marne.

And now here we are in 2023. Trump is no longer a slow moving train wreck ,he’s two Japanese high speed trains barreling for each other. Not only is he a Mt Saint Helens size cancer on the party, thanks to so many of his acolyte thugs taking over state GOP parties, several critical swing states like Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona and Georgia are either facing bankruptcy or several cash shortfalls that will force them to downsize. And I don’t see any deep pocket white knights riding in to save the day by throwing chunks of change at these stone cold losers.

And the longer FrankenTrump stays in the race, which to say to the end, the worse it gets. The closer we get to trial dates, the more hysterical Trump’s demands for donations from the sheeple to his criminal defense fund are going to get. Which only squeezes both the state parties as well as the RNC, the RSCC, and the RCCC of desperately needed funds. And when the congress resumes in September, the GOP is only going to look worse when the Freedom Caucus flamethrowers threaten to shut down the government over extending the budget.

Do me a favor. Relax. Take a deep breath. Enjoy your summer. And once we’re past Labor Day, and the kiddies are back in school, and you’re back to the daily grind. Start tuning in to my columns. Because every state has their own filing deadlines to get on the ballot for the primaries. After Labor Day GOP House incumbents will start doing some preliminary polling for 2022. And after the upcoming debacle of the budget fight, by October the picture will be clearer, especially with The Burger Buddha tromping around like a runaway rhino. And the closer we get to trials, the more negative information comes out.

I’ll certainly keep you guys and gals posted. My guess is that by mid October, we’ll start to see the trickle of more moderate, swing district GOP incumbents voting with their feet.  And if the current dynamic continues, I’ll  be surprised if the number of announced GOP House retirements hasn’t topped 30 by Christmas. And for Ditch McConnell, it’s gonna be Tough-titty-city-kitty,-cuz-the-milk-tastes-sh*tty when he tries to recruit qualified senate candidates with name recognition to buy a 1st class ticket on the SS Trumptanic. Don’t touch that dial.