As of Friday morning, October 25th – just 11 days prior to the election, the polls indicate what they’ve always forecast, just more so. The presidential race remains tied, as in 50-50 tied in the polls, reflecting virtually no movement – virtually. To the extent anything has happened in the last few days there is some tiny movement toward Donald Trump – barely enough to be noticed by anyone except Democrats.
And everyone else. As the mostly-reliable ABC News 538.com puts it, Donald Trump has finally achieved the “more likely to win then not” in the playoff standings, albeit winning 51 out of 100 elections to Kamala Harris’s 49. Before everyone freaks out some caution is warranted:
You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
Yeah. So now what? Not much – perhaps wait for the referenced “few more polls” to come in and flip it back to Harris 51-49, but it will do little more than comfort your tummy. it means nothing about no thing. One can now literally say that the forecast in Pennsylvania has more to do with which candidate wins. If it rains in Democratic districts, well – spend what you saved for just that type of day.
It certainly looks like rain in any forecast for a blue Senate. In that race, Republicans win 87 out of 100 – and, if anything – that seems generous. Democratic control of the Senate almost necessarily requires defeating Ted Cruz of red Texas and Rick Scott of now red Florida. As delightfully delicious as that might sound, it’s just not happening. If you feel the need to panic, as Democrats should likely do, save that for the Senate.
To the exotic and quixotic zoo that is the House of Representatives, there is slightly better news in that the Democrats only lose 51% of the trial runs. That, too, is obviously a full toss up. The horror show is one sided in that only the Republicans can sweep the presidency, the Senate, and the House. So there’s that.
It would be great if you could say that a Harris win makes control of Congress less meaningful. But in 2024, whether Harris becomes president is all-too-dependent on who controls Congress. Imagine January 6th again this time with a narrower Harris win and a more antsy Congress. The crowd would be on the Mall urging it on. It is almost a given that if Trump loses the vote in the election and thus the Electoral College, he will try to win it in the House – something devastatingly possible.
It means nothing to you, individually, at least in terms of action – perhaps work harder at getting votes out or donating more money. It means everything to the nation. At this point, prayers are warranted if you’re so inclined. Pray for rain… in rural areas.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak
How in the f*ck is he gaining ground especially after officials from his administration have all but called him a traitor? wtf is wrong with the voters?
As was noted in another article, there are a lot of utter junk polls (not surprisingly, they all seem to favor Trump–but nothing suspicious about that, now) that have been released and, for some insane reason (probably so the media can have its coveted “horse race”), the media is giving the same weight to all these crap polls as they do the more legitimate, realistic polls.
He hates the same people they do. White men are angry that mediocre Feeds now have to compete for jobs against better qualified, better educated women and minorities. They see their power slipping away.
Remember the influx of far-right polls that have jacked the results for the past month? That’s how he’s “gaining” ground.
The simple answer is stupidity. That being said, having continuous propaganda 24/7 is enough to swing tens of thousands of votes. Goebbels would have been giddy about the continuing stream of lies. Add in all the ‘isms’, people’s tendency to not give a shit unless it affects THEM, then presto we are where we are.
Last week the polls said this, today the polls say that. Why not just stop with the polls? We all know they mean absolutely nothing but a number from one moment in one day. Geez…
An excellant point.
Mostly the point is just to keep a running tab for those interested.
They aren’t to be taken with anything more than noting trends.
jason
I am NOT convinced Trump has “undeniably” gained ground. Political insiders have theorized that some polls are intentionally favoring Trump in order to create panic among Democrats. More ominously, they are setting the stage for Trump to claim fraud if Harris wins. The New Republic recently reported that Rasmussen Reports (which has always skewed right) is actively colluding with the Trump campaign.
Naturally, CNN and others love this “dead heat” narrative because it drives up ratings. Please, folks, do NOT panic if Trump appears ahead on election night. It will take several days for ballots to be counted. And Biden is still in charge until Jan. 20. I don’t think he and the DOJ will be blindsided when Republicans try to subvert the results.
I call bullshit.