Chris Christie: Hurting Or Helping Trump At This Point?

It’s an interesting question, and frankly one I hadn’t considered until this morning. However, after reading what to me was an interesting article by The Hill I’m sure thinking about it now. Frankly, it was the headline about Christie’s campaign getting a boost after the recent GOP debate that caused me to click on the story. But as I read it explored a more interesting topic which is the question posed in the headline of this piece.

The linked article includes a section that spells it out:

“The better Christie performs, the more likely Trump will be the nominee of the party. It’s that simple because Christie will not be the nominee of the party,” said Republican strategist Justin Sayfie. “And the better he performs, the longer he will stay in the race. And the longer he stays in the race, the bigger advantage Trump has to win the nomination.”

Let’s take a look at how we got here:

Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie was once a Trump ally. It’s quite possible if not for Jared Kushner’s grudge (Christie put Jared’s dad in prison) he’d have been Trump’s VP. That would have been interesting but let’s not go down that road not taken. Instead let’s focus on the fact that Christie remained a Trump guy. Even after getting dumped from the VP sweepstakes. Even after putting together a solid transition plan and being posed to begin implementing it as soon as the election was called for Trump. Only to have the still petulant Jared literally have it tossed into the dumpster (those briefing binders make up a LOT of stuff to throw away!) which is why the 2016 transition was such a disaster.  Ok, so the entire four years (and after) of the Trump administration was a disaster but again, let’s not get into all that. If you’re reading this I don’t need to tell any of the horror stories.

What matters is that at one time, despite Trump dumping him because Jared convinced him to do so Trump liked and sort of Trusted Christie. And Christie was a solid Trump guy. Until Christie, who despite being a bully of a Gov. (probably what drew Trump to him) was so appalled by the Big Lie and January 6 he really was done with Trump. Others said they were and recanted rather than incur the wrath of Trump and MAGA. Not Christie. Like precious few others he stayed done with Trump. Not to mention he’d harbored his own Presidential ambitions for years. Trump probably figured that despite his having dumped on Christie “bigly” more than once he’s eventually come around and make his own pilgrimage to Mar A Lago to kiss the fake gold toilet bowl ring and beg forgiveness.

Except he didn’t and it would be fun to have been a fly on the wall when Trump realized that Christie had gone the way of Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Not just unwilling to turn back into supplicants but instead work actively and hard to ensure there would never be a Trump return to power.  Except in Christie’s case you had a former Governor of a major state with other credentials for the Presidency who’d shown an interest in the job previously. I suspect that if as we know Trump feared running against Joe Biden in a general election more than anyone else, he’s feared running against Christie in a GOP primary more than anyone else. Once the two had their falling out Trump had to know Christie would run.

Remember how in the 2016 GOP primaries Trump laid waste to all the other candidates? His bullying and insults? None of them could stand up to him. However, Chris Christie is Trump’s match, and then some. Christie is more experienced and knowledgeable politically and way the hell smarter than Trump. More capable of thinking on his feet, a skill he no doubt honed as a federal prosecutor. Christie is hard core conservative Republican but of the old-school type who keeps his eye on the ball of lower taxes and less regulation. And how to get those things done. The details, and executive skills to oversee the staff, and work with legislative allies to make things he wants to happen actually happen. ALL the things Trump lacks.

Christie believes Trump blew it for the GOP’s future. Unlike Trump Christie knew how it took years, decades even to get the GOP to the point where it was in 2016, only to see Trump piss it away. He knows that under the best of circumstances it will take a generation to get whatever emerges from the wreckage Trump has made of the GOP back to the level of control they had before. He grew angry about that. And unlike most bullies when Christie gets punched hard in the mouth he doesn’t run away. He punches back! Toss in the multiple humiliations Trump (once again, thanks to Jared) visited on him and Christie also has a personal axe to grind. He’s out for Trump’s ass and Trump saw it coming.

That brings us to the GOP candidate debates and where things stand now. Trump of course was scared to death to be on the same stage with Christie even when the crowd was larger. As the field has dwindled leaving more time to focus on each remaining candidate Trump’s fear has grown exponentially. I suspect that like me you looked forward (prior to the first debate) of watching Christie tear into Trump, taking huge bites out of Trump’s ass. At the same time you probably thought Trump would chicken out. I did too. Trump wanted NO part of engaging with Christie live and on TV, and also knew that no other candidate would be able, even if willing (which he knew none of them were) to do to him what Christie could and would do.

Yes, there have been some fairly mild, tame criticisms of Trump over generic stuff like not growing the Party, or even specifics like not fulfilling all of his promises (i.e. the border wall) and so on. But direct, fierce attacks on Trump including calling him out for his role in what took place on January 6? Nope. Everyone but Christie wants to try and make a case to the MAGAs that although Trump was great, they are the ones who now need to step in and help finish what Trump started. Basically, they are trying not to get trashed by Trump and preserve their 2028 prospects. Except for Christie.

If Christie weren’t in the mix and scaring Trump off it would be gruesomely entertaining to watch Trump do to the remaining candidates. Especially DeSantis. Ron is not only short in stature but short in campaign skills. And outside of FL politics guts. He’d literally look small on stage with Trump (he’s a good four or five inches shorter) but we all know what would happen the first time Ron offers even a mild criticism, or more likely says he could do better. Trump’s response would do a “Honey – I shrunk the candidate!” number on DeSantis. Little Ronnie would after just one salvo from Trump damn near disappear. The TV crew would need to have cameras like networks that televise football and soccer have, with capability of moving from a wide shot to close-up to be able to see DeSantis for the rest of the sh*t-show. Not that the other candidates would fare much better.

IF, and only if Christie withdraws from the race or doesn’t qualify for the next debate will Trump show up. Until the last minute it looked like Christie might not qualify. It’s interesting that according to the conservative leaning outlet State of the Union Trump’s advance staff checked out the venue in Tuscaloosa prior to that debate. That article notes Secret Service swept the place and that Trump is the only GOP candidate with Secret Service protection so added with other data points I think their reporters were on to something – that Trump was ready to show up.

I also think that as soon as it became clear Christie would be on the stage Trump chickened out.

Why all this matters is that conventional wisdom says the GOP needs to unite behind a single alternative to Trump, and soon if there’s going to be any chance of preventing him from virtually locking up the nomination after Super Tuesday. DeSantis has placed all his hopes on beating Trump in Iowa, or at least running very close to him. And no one else getting more low single digits. Of course, while it’s fun to talk about Ted Cruz Iowa hasn’t proven predictive in Presidential years prior to that. Winners in 2012 and even 2008 failed to get the nomination. (NH isn’t as crucial as it once was either) DeSantis may or may not place second in Iowa but it won’t matter. He’s not put in money or effort to NH and SC and will get wiped out in both places. Donors and the old GOP establishment know that which is why Nikki Haley is now their great GOP hope.

And, according to the article from The Hill therein lies the problem. It seems that those, voters who support Christie would likely switch to Haley IF Christie wasn’t in the race. It won’t matter much in Iowa but will be quite important in NH. If Haley can run second in Iowa and do well in NH she can do the same in SC. Even only losing to Trump by single digits in those states, especially two (or more) of them will with his DC trial coinciding with the start of his DC trial make Trump vulnerable on Super Tuesday.  Losing even a couple of the Super Tuesday states would I believe mean all bets are off.

However, all of this could be and probably is contingent on Christie bowing out. Picking up his support would turbo charge the boost Haley’s campaign seems to have gotten lately. However there’s still no sign that Haley would, even then be willing to take off the gloves, and maybe employ Christie as both a coach and a surrogate (assuming he’d be willing) to attack Trump and do so forcefully.  Christie did a solid for Haley in the last debate when he slammed Ramaswamy but still also slammed Haley along with the others for being afraid to take on Trump.

Someone has to be there throwing body blows and head punches at Trump. Christie is the ONLY one willing to do so. However, it’s pretty clear he has zero chance of getting the nomination no matter how well he does in NH. And that he’s taking up support that would go to Haley by staying in the race. With the support of Christie voters it might be just enough to give Haley’s campaign the “critical mass” it needs to spark a “nomination reaction.” Without it and with her trying to set up for 2028 the big donor money (and goodwill) now flowing to her will be as wasted as it was on DeSantis. Those donors will remember THAT in four years I guarantee you.

So in the end it makes an interesting question to consider – at this stage is Christie hurting or helping Trump? I honestly don’t know but I’m going to be paying close attention in the weeks ahead. So should you.