Chasing Dreams Or Are Florida And Texas Possible?

I know. Believe me I know. Still, if you opened this article you’re curious. Maybe you feel like indulging in a little dreaming. Maybe you want to see how far round the bend I’ve gone. I’ll also say right upfront I’m taking this with a grain of salt. Still, Emerson is no slouch of a polling outlet. Then add in a few more factors. Colin Alred seems to be gradually getting into serious contention against Ted Cruz in Texas. And Gov. Gregg Abbot is taking it in the shorts from the state’s largest newspaper these days. Over in Florida Ron DeSantis’s death grip on things seems to be weakening. Plus there’s an abortion rights measure on the ballot that’s going to gin up lots of Democratic and Independent support. Even if things aren’t quite as close as the new Emerson polling in both states suggest the trend is something the GOP has to be looking at. And not liking one bit.

Let’s start with what’s in an article I saw from The Daily Mail. The headline simply said there was a big shift in two states. Given the outlet I figured it was a ‘good news for the GOP thing’ but like other writers on Politizoom I think it’s important to check out what outlets other than our favorites have to say. Boy was I ever surprised one I started reading!  Right off the bat it said things are tightening up in two surprising places. In both Texas and Florida the article says things are now “far closer than at any time in the race.”

Be still my heart. And, as I said earlier I take this with a grain of salt. That’s especially true with Texas, where we keep getting teased with the possibility of if not the state going blue for President we might win some other statewide race. Let’s face it. Next to Trump face planting in November you’d be almost as thrilled to see Ted Cruz sent packing from the Senate. (And we may well need that seat) However we get slapped upside the head with reality. Ok, we’ve gotten close but close doesn’t count. Cruz is still there and Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for President since I don’t know when anymore.

With Florida at least Obama won there in both 2008 and 2012 but since then it’s been a dry hole. Also, unlike Texas the Democratic Party in Florida from the state level down to most counties basically rolled over and played dead hoping the GOP wouldn’t kick them around just for fun. However as I’ve said, despite the voting power of all those senior citizens who’ve retired to Florida and since seniors against all reason (mess with their Medicare they’ll beat you to death with their canes) vote Republican things might be different this year. Might.

DeSantis has made a mess of the state and his feud with Disney has long-term implications for time with the grandkids. And as the fictional President Bartlett said in a memorable scene of The West Wing ‘You WILL not mess with the grandkids.  We’re madmen. We don’t care WHO we offend.’ Plus you have a lot of grandmas who see their daughters and granddaughters stripped of a right THEY had. By the GOP. And they know damn well prescription birth control is on the chopping block if Trump wins. Maybe even the right to have a credit card in their own name too. I’m 67 and women GAINED all those rights in my lifetime. To have credit in their own name without a husband or male co-signer. To have prescription birth control. And to have an abortion. Thanks to Trump, who so many of THEM voted for abortion is no longer a right in many places. And those other things won’t be either.

You think maybe they might decide for one election at least to vote for Harris, to vote for a Democrat ‘just this one time’ to even things out some? Especially in Florida which has an abortion rights amendment on the ballot?  Alas, Texas doesn’t have an abortion rights measure on the ballot. However as I said Abbot is catching hell in the news over there. And a lot of women (and men who care about them) will be asking themselves the same questions that are being asked over in Florida.

So, as the linked article points out Trump has seen his support erode among most demographic groups since Harris took over for Biden as the nominee. More to the point in the two states we’re talking about there is the polling:

Now in two states that were never considered swing states or toss-ups, things could be about to change with latest surveys from Emerson College suggesting Harris is now within the margin of error (about 3 points) in the two states.

The poll suggests Trump is only narrowly ahead in his home state of Florida at 50 percent with Harris at 45 percent.

 

I recall reading something about this poll either yesterday evening or this morning. That article suggested this Emerson poll is an outlier. In effect Emerson messed up somehow. That’s of course possible but it’s got a really solid reputation so I doubt they are all that far off the mark. That same article admitted that while Emerson has things the closest all but one other poll has things at or barely outside the margin of error in Trump’s favor. That’s not the kind of news Trump and the GOP overall want or need right now.

Once again I have to say I give myself a proverbial whack upside the head whenever I have thoughts of us winning anything bigger than the odd Congressional race in Texas.  It’s like a conversation I had not long ago with my high school basketball coach about my senior season. Had we not blown it in the regional title game (I think he still feels guilty for ignoring me during the game when I yelled at him to bench our star player) we’d have won the Sectional title too. But the Super-Sectional? The first round of the state tournament played at eight sites around the state? Nope. We’d have been toast against the opponent we’d have had. Our chances of beating THEM would have been…well like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas.

Still, we were tantalized for a while about winning Arizona and people said no way. Then we won Senate seats. And then we won a Presidential election. And the Governorship and other statewide offices.  Same with Georgia. I’ don’t think it’s gone Democrat since Carter, although perhaps Clinton managed to win it. Yet had current Gov. Brian Kemp not abused his position as Secretary of State with brutal voter suppression Stacey Abrams would have beaten HIM in his first run for Gov. And we did win two Senate seats and Biden did narrowly win that state in 2020. No one really thought that was possible either so the point is you never know until all the votes are counted.

I’m not holding by breath however whether we’re talking about either Florida or Texas. No matter how close we might come both will remain agonizingly just out of reach. However, the GOP can’t afford to lose either one. That’s true both for the Presidential race and in the Senate. (Skeletor, aka Rick Scott might be vulnerable in Florida in that Senate race) If Harris hold her own in polling in the aftermath of the debate, or even gains a bit then the trend that’s been going her way will likely continue to grow. Not as much or as fast as we’d like but even slight growth is plenty.

In the case of both Texas and Florida those are both big electoral gorillas. If Harris is even within the margin of error THAT means Trump and the GOP are going to have to spend resources shoring them up. Time AND money. That my friends is time and money, and serious amounts of both they won’t be able to use elsewhere.  Money is an issue they might be able to partially solve.  IF some really deep pocket donors believe there’s a fair chance they aren’t pissing a whole lot of money down the toilet. Some, if not most of them probably already have a couple of minions working on spreadsheets comparing lobbying money vs. candidate donations to see where they can get the biggest bang for their bucks.

We are handily beating the GOP in donations up and down the ballot and the bulk is from small money donors.  We’re in a good spot to fight in a lot more places AND, while everyone was trashing President Biden and his campaign they were going about the non-glamorous work of setting up field offices around the country and getting them properly staffed with people who could train volunteers!  Tell me again how Joe had “lost it” when he was making sure all THAT was getting done.  Now? We have the money to expand what was already set up and with at least 200k NEW volunteers we can actually mount ground games in places where before there would have been only token efforts. Say Texas and Florida for example!

Much as I’d love for Harris to win just one of these two states I don’t think either will go our way. At best we might get a Senate seat, or if we’re really lucky two. However, we will force the GOP to defend territory they never thought they’d have to defend.

So on this Saturday night I’m enjoying the thought of this latest Emerson poll having Trump and other GOPers scrambling to put new polls of their own in the field. And worrying. I’m enjoying that THEY are NOT enjoying a pleasant evening. Like my entertainment, I take my pleasure where I can get it.  I hope for those who’ve done me the courtesy of reading this you derive a bit of pleasure from it too.