You know that you have screwed up pyrotechnically when your odds of being the first Trump cabinet member to be fired are higher than those of Pete Hegseth. Hegseth is probably cheering and celebrating bigly over this news. He’s been favored to be the first casualty of Trump 2.0 for some time now. But after the past week’s debacle in Minnesota, Kristi Noem takes the lead.
BetOnline.ag has increased Noem’s chances of being the first Trump cabinet member to lose the job. Noem had 4/1 odds just a month ago, but now is the favorite.
Noem is also favored to be removed as DHS secretary before the end of the year. Her odds of -200 imply a 67% probability that she’ll be gone before 2027.
Who will be first member of Trump Cabinet to leave post?
Kristi Noem      +170
Pam Bondi       +225
Tulsi Gabbard  +300
Pete Hegseth   +375
RFK Jr.             +2500
Scott Bessent   +4000
John Ratcliffe   +5500
Marco Rubio    +8000
Linda McMahon+8000
Lee Zeldin        +8000
Will Kristi Noem be removed as DHS secretary before 2027?
Yes      -200
No       +150
Will Pam Bondi be removed as Attorney General before 2027?
Yes      -140
No       +100
Will Pete Hegseth be removed as Secretary of War before 2027?
Yes      -120
No       -120
Will Kash Patel be removed as FBI Director before 2027?
Yes      -225
No       +160
Administration exit date odds can be seen here:Â https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/exit-dates
It’s worth noting that this kind of odds making is not a normal part of most administrations but definitely is a game that is played with Trump’s two administrations. Let’s see what happens to Kristi Noem.
It’s safe to hazard a guess and bet that bookies are rarely wrong. In sum: Farewell Noem!