Familiarity breeds contempt classic saying
You know, second term presidential elections tend to go one of two ways. Either you have a mostly or vastly popular incumbent in the White House, in which case the incumbent steamrolls over a patsy opponent from the other party. Think Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton or Barack Obama.
Or you have a largely unpopular in the White House, in which the opposing party trots out an A-List candidate trying for that rarest of treats, toppling a one term President. This leads to a bloody and nerve wracking election campaign. Think Jimmy Carter, George HQW Bush, George W Bush, and Donald Trump.
The basic fundamental differences are easy. In the secure reelection campaigns, almost nobody even remembers the name of the guy who got his ass kicked. In fact, former GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole even did an American Express commercial intoning the fact that while he ran for President, almost nobody in the country recognized him, therefore the Amex card. And we all know the names of the ones who went up against the unpopular Presidents, mainly because they kicked their ass and got to be President themselves.
But this year we have a situation so unique that I can’t find a comparison to it since Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose party ran an insurgent 3rd party campaign. You normally get either a popular incumbent against a nobody, or you get an unpopular incumbent against a fresh exciting face and personality, someone who offers a legitimate alternate to the currently unpopular incumbent.
But not this time. Not in 2024. Look at what we have ahead of us in 2024. You have a widely unpopular incumbent who is an 81 year old career politician everybody in the country knows, going up against a 79 year old career grifter who was so unpopular that the current guy kicked his ass out after only one term. There is no contrast here of who is younger, more energetic, with fresher ideas. Instead it all boils down to Who the f*ck are you more fed up with?
Advantage Democrats and Biden. For a couple of reasons. First of all, history is replete with incumbent President’s who were underwater in the polling going into the general election, but none of them had done anything stupid enough to make the majority of the country want to get rid of them. John Kerry should by all rights have kicked W’s ass in 2004, with his unpopularity over the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but the national sentiment seemed to be, He f*cked it all up, but let’s give him four more years to finish it.
Which plays to the advantage of Biden and the Democrats. I said it at the top, familiarity breeds contempt. And after four totally disastrous years, the majority of the country has nothing but contempt for Traitor Tot. To the point that enough of the country was sick enough of him to boot him off the island to the guy that he’s now trying to beat with 91 criminal charges under four separate indictments, and has been found liable civilly of both sexual assault as well as fraud charges against both himself and his company. What could go wrong?
Here’s what could go worng. (Misspelling intentional) There’s another trusted old political adage, memories are short in politics. And they are. And in this case, the media and even social media gave El Pendejo Presidente a solid gift when they all basically ignored the sh*t out of him after he lost.
Because here’s another old adage, Absence makes the heart grow fonder. And never was that more true than for Traitor Tot. By the time the votes were finally counted in 2020, there wasn’t a single non Trump voting American who wasn’t ready to undergo a lobotomy just to remove the stench of Trump from their brains. But the human brain is a resilient thing. And once Trump stopped being covered daily by the media as President, and once he got bojo’d from Twitter, Facebook and Instagram, most Americans took an hour long shower with brain bleach to erase him as completely from their minds as they could.
Which is the problem. Because while Traitor Tot’s rabid base is as loyal as ever , most normal, sane Americans have jettisoned every memory of Trump that they can. Full Disclosure I would have done the same goddamned thing, except that the fat f*ck couldn’t just sink quietly into his ooze, he kept making me cover his sorry ass.
That is Job #1 for Biden and his campaign surrogates out on the trail. They, while reminding everyone of Biden’s spectacular successes, and his vision for the next four years, also have to remind everyone of the horrors of The Muslim Ban, Child Separation at the southern border, the despicable “Food people on both sides” comments after Charlottesville, his tone deaf attitude to mass shootings, including school shootings, even in the presence of family members, his disrespect of the wife of Master Sargent LaDavid Johnson after his combat death in Africa, his use of National Guard troops to tear gas innocent protesters so he could have a photo op in front of a burned out church. The treason of January 6th.
Yeah, I’m sorry, but we gotta go there again. And even more. because after three years of pretty much radio silence from His Lowness, too many people have forgotten just what a vicious, unfeeling pr*ck this ass hat was. We have to remind 71 million more Americans of just what a repulsive, dictatorial egomaniac this sh*t-for-brains was, and why we booted him in the first place.
So yes, Biden and his surrogates need to carry the positive message of his accomplishments and his goals to the people But they also have the civic duty to remind the citizens of this country what a thoroughly despicable autocratic thug Trump was. What November of 2024 all boils down to is what I like to call the Women’s shoe test. What you rather wear for the next four years? Would you rather wear a pair of foot killing 4″ spikes, or would you rather wear a pair of comfy old slippers? My mind is already made up.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
I do remember how bad Trump was. The drama, incompetence. And I remember my shock at how Kerry lost while Iraq War 2 was taking a big, massive dump. A good portion of Haley voters have said they would vote for Biden. If they can stomach that, then we have to remember things were worse. Under Trump 2.0, they will be worse than the first time.
The problem with this tack is that, certainly for his supporters and possibly for undecided voters, drumming about 45’s past egregiousness might seem gratuitous and anchored in the past. Like you, I will never forget what a cruel and incompetent shitheel Trump was (is), but I worry that it might alienate much-needed, yet-uncommitted voters if the Biden campaign’s leading message is replaying the greatest worst hits of Trump’s term.
While this strategy won’t faze magats, I don’t think it will play badly with undecideds although why they’d be undecided given trump is on the ticket I haven’t an earthly. Reminding the undecided, new, independent, never trumpers and democrats (so they will get out and vote) just how horrendous the fool was while squatting in the oval is necessary. Should it be President Biden’s only message? No-certainly letting the voters know what he’s done to turn the country around needs to play a large part in any messaging President Biden does during his campaign. I honestly think hammering home trump’s incompetence, cruelty, stupidity, etc. is likely going to be one of the most effective messages.
During the SOTU Biden reminded people what a f**kup Trump was while reminding everyone of all the sh*t Trump broke that he’d fixed. That was a really good start and I’m pretty sure he’ll keep it up. The SOTU might not have been the place for it but a saw a suggestion a day or two before that Biden should make it a J6 Committee style presentation and use video to illustrate points. Again, impractical for reasons I won’t get into.
However, at the CONVENTION that’s exactly what the President should do. He’ll have a giant screen behind him and can & should use it to remind the country but especially the talking heads covering the event of what things were like in the Trump years. And not just with j6 footage. Covid? Show footage of hosptials and refrigerator trucks full of bodies in the streets, interspered with Trump talking about drinking or injecting bleach or shoving a UV light down the throat or up the ass – while Birx and others look on in shock! Kids in cages at the border under space blankets on concrete floors, having been separated from their parents. You get the idea.
It would also have an added benefit. For anyone who hasn’t done public speaking, it’s tough to stand there and speak for even 10-15 minutes. Your mouth and throat get dry. Sure, during extended applause a politician can take a quick sip of water. But just getting a break from talking for a minute can be really, really helpful. I hope Biden’s team is thinking about getting whomever the J6 committee used to help them in crafting his acceptance speech. Remember, the Party in the WH gets to go second and THAT is a big advantage. Remember the shit-show we got from Trump before? We can be sure the RNC this year will be even worse. Hell, his “American Carnage” inaugural will look like sunshine and roses in comparison! And that will be after a series of Pat Buchanon in 92 type stuff from others, interspersed with no-name talent providing what they think is entertainment to lift the mood.
Finally, we all saw the Joe Biden we wanted to see Thursday night. And that was in front of Congress where he was still mindful of where he was and the old-school in him held back some even as he broke some tradition. At the convention, knowing he’s doing his last campaign he will be free to REALLY cut loose!
The committee style presentation is impractical for one very prominent reason: way too many Americans have the attention span of your average fruit fly…on a good day.
You might want to reconsider the reference to Clinton in the “mostly or vastly popular incumbent [who] steamrolls over a patsy opponent from the other party” category.
In 1996, Clinton’s margin of victory over Dole–on a state-by-state basis–was overshadowed by Perot voters. For instance, in Arizona, Clinton beat Dole by 31,000 votes while Perot got nearly 4 times that many. In Florida, Clinton’s margin was just over 300,000 votes while Perot got more than 480,000 votes. In Kentucky, Clinton’s margin was just 13,000 and in Missouri, it was just 135,000; Perot picked up 120,000 and 217,000 votes, respectively. In your own state of Nevada, Clinton’s margin was a mere 4,500 votes while Perot won nearly 44,000.
Just in the name of fairness, Dole wasn’t quite as strong in most of the states which he won in the Electoral College; he had absolute 50.01%+ wins in just 6 of the 19 states he carried. Clinton, on the other hand, had absolute wins in DC and 18 of the 31 states he carried in the Electoral College. There’s also the consideration that post-election polls indicated that Perot voters were equally split on who they *would* have voted for if Perot weren’t on the ballot (all other candidates, including the Green Party’s Ralph Nader and Libertarian Harry Browne, received a mere 1,591,000 votes–less than 20% of what Perot got–so however their voters might have voted if those candidates weren’t on the ballot are relatively negligible).
A lot of Clinton’s support was based more on some voter disgust with the way the GOP had been “investigating” Clinton but voter turnout was also way down compared to 1992 (by some 6 percentage points) and, there was also the “age” issue (interesting that point seems to be rearing an ugly head again). Clinton, in 1996, was a “youthful” 50 years old on Election Day while Dole was a “decrepit” 73. Dole also made a number of gaffes and had a “stumbling” incident which certainly didn’t help (he also made a goof about the “Brooklyn Dodgers” but, at the same time, he made a joke later on after the “St Louis Cardinals” won the NL Central by congratulating the Cardinals and then saying “Notice I said the St Louis Cardinals and not the St Louis Browns.” (Can you imagine Trump owning a goof and making light of it? Nah. He’d just say the media was spreading “fake news” or that he did it deliberately to show how the media hated him.)
But, ultimately, Clinton did NOT win in 1996 with 50% of the popular vote; he got just 49.2% of the popular vote–and if it weren’t for that “vile” and “despicable” Electoral College, Clinton wouldn’t have necessarily won the election. (Tangent here: One of the things that people forget about that whole “popular vote should decide the winner” is without an amendment to EXPLICITLY state how an election is to be decided if no candidate receives 50% of the vote or greater. Not 49.999% but 50%–and 50% plus 1 if there are more than 2 candidates, the way most states handle their general elections, or even primaries. This country has NEVER held an election decided based strictly on the popular vote. Most states don’t allow for a split of electoral votes either–Maine and Nebraska being the exceptions–although that was floated in a number of GOP-led states in 2012 like Michigan and Virginia but the legislators realized that wouldn’t necessarily solve the problem or could even backfire. If an election has a lot of candidates on the ballot, it can–and typically does–lead to no singular winner and requires a run-off. Given the overall swing in significant third-party votes in the last 8 presidential elections, what would’ve happened in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2016 if there’d been no Electoral College? Would we wind up having a “general election run-off” where the two leading candidates were the only ones on the ballot–in the middle of December? Sure, ranked-choice voting would be a viable option but most GOP-led states seem, um, “reluctant” to even consider that option and, on a national Presidential election basis, it would still lead to a somewhat lengthier certification of votes and I can just see an increase in “audits” to confirm the initial results.)
gop-led states are extremely against getting rid of the e.c. because it benefits them. I honestly don’t see it going away unless and until the republican party goes away. And I’m not entirely sure too many democrats want it to go way either for the very reasons you gave. Were it to go the way of the dodo, there would need to be something very explicit written into whatever law/amendment succeeded it especially what to do when neither candidate gets 50% + 1. It damned sure cannot go back to the state legislatures for them to get their corrupt little hands on the peoples’ choice.
There’s a swath of ill informed voters who are going to vote for the shiny object like the Kennedy name. I talked with one yesterday who was in his twenties. I told him Kennedy promotes crazy conspiracies like when you get a vaccination a chip is being implanted in you. I asked him why he was for Kennedy and he really didn’t know. My guess is he has no idea of Biden’s policies that would benefit HIM. All he sees is an old man and is going for the famous name. Joe needs to get these kinds of voters somehow. They have no real commitment to anything.
“But they also have the civic duty to remind the citizens of this country what a thoroughly despicable autocratic thug Trump was.”
AND exactly what he plans to do if re-elected. The idiot TOLD us. Just play THAT clip! Priceless…