Man-o-Manischewitz, what a difference 5 months makes, huh? Over the weekend NBC News came out with a new national poll on the November midterms, and it’s hard to find anything not to like. Let’s take a deeper look.
Back in March, in the same poll, when it came to voter enthusiasm, by May, the Democrats had cut that almost in half, down by 10 points, still a GOP wave indicator. But in this new poll, the Democrats are within the margin of error, down 66-68. No wonder McConnell is making whale music about staying minority Leader, and the GOP is no longer talking about 50-60 seats.
Back in March, the Democrats were -12 when it came to the generic control of congress category. In May, it was still a wave indicating -8. But in the new poll, once again the Democrats are within the margin of error, down 44-46. Another indicator that the deep red wave of 2022 is now a puddle at best.
Most importantly, back in March, when it came to major issues, the economy, gas prices, and education were the winners in a blowout. That remained true in May as well. But in the new poll? The threat to our democracy and abortion rights were the new top two picks. The GOP pissed away the whole summer by running on anti abortion, CRT, and conspiracy theories instead of running on the issues, and now the most important issues in the last 78 days belong to the Democrats.
If there was one nit to pick, it’s Biden’s popularity rating. Back in March, Biden’s rating stood at a sub par 42%. And in the new poll, Biden is stuck in the exact same spot. But that’s really not that much of a problem for Democrats, because they already learned something that the GOP is now on their 2nd midterm cycle trying to figure out. Don’t run on Biden! They don’t need to rehabilitate him, he’s not on the ballot. Use him where he’s popular, like PA and OH, otherwise run on your accomplishment strengths in your district or state.
Here’s one more sign of momentum being on the Democrats side that wasn’t a part of the poll. The NRSC just announced that it had pulled out of a $10 million ad buy in PA, WI, AZ, and FL. It’s so bad that McConnell’s Super PAC just stepped in with a $20 million ad buy to try to prop up JD Vance in Ohio who, in the 2nd quarter, posted a truly pathetic $1 million in fundraising. Money isn’t everything, but this late in the cycle, it drives your ability to get your message out. Fortunately for them, the GOP doesn’t seem to have a message.
The one thing that these polls don’t take into account is candidate quality and location. In the House, The Cook Report has already lowered its previous estimate of a 50-60 deat GOP gain to 15-30. Why? Trombies on the ballot in critical suburban swing districts. We’ll see what happens when the primaries are over, it could well go down again. And in the Senate, McConnell has already given up on getting his grubby little mitts on the Majority Leader’s puck again anytime soon.
Here’s why participation is so critical. White suburban soccer moms hate Trump. In key battleground states like FL, GA, NC, PA, OH, WI, and AZ. If the top of the ticket is chock-a-block full of anti abortion Trombies, do you honestly think suburban women voters will go all the way down to the Houser and statewide races to vote GOP? I don’t. They’ll either vote Democratic down the line, or just stay home in disgust. Which is the same thing. And it could not only sink the GOP in the national races, but in the state legislative races as well.
79 days left to go. If you’ve a punt or two, consider donating to a candidate in your state. Or volunteering to phone bank of give rides on election day. The one thing you can’t do is to give up. This is still a dogfight, but at least it isn’t the Christians vs the Lions anymore.
It’s the dems midterms to lose. Don’t think they can’t fuck this up especially since they seem to enjoy doing just that.
I am slightly confused about this constant “white suburban moms” bit in so many articles with regard to abortion. White suburban moms are often conservative. Kind of depends on the state. Sure, they loathe trump but enough to cause them to pull the lever for a dem? Of course all we need is for them to decide to stay home and they might as well be voting for the candidate with the D by their name.
White GOP suburban women are Trump and the GOP’s biggest nightmare because they HATE Trump. But moreso, especially this year, they’re energized because, like everybody else, they never thought that Roe would be overturned…They have no intention of spending thousands of dollars to travel to another state to control the size of their family, nor of putting their daughters through that. Just look at Kansas…It’s only 45
% Democratic, but the abortion bill passed by 59%…Even rural GOP women voted for it…Some people came in just to vote on that, and left the rest of the GOP ballot blank…
I still think you’re be optimistic-your suburban moms in conservative states are not the same as those in blue states. A S.M. in Texas is quite likely to be sitting in the pews at her local Southern Baptist/Evang. church every Sunday. That type of person could give a happy rat’s ass whether abortion is readily available or not. Sure, a suburban mom outside Chicago, Denver, or some other blue state city is pissed right now and will take it out on the ‘pubes. One in a red state? I’m not so sure.
Doesn’t really matter tho’ since that fed. soc. guy just received $1.6B to use to get whatever scumbag ‘pube he wants elected or re-elected. I suspect we’ll start seeing ads to counter those being run by the Lincoln Project, etc. depicting a Republic of Gilead future. Remember, they can lie all they want if it gets past whatever media outlet they use to run the ad.
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Bidens unpopularity is from left as much as right. He ran as a centrist, that can be a problem. my daughter is hard core left, and she hates Biden, but that doesn’t mean she does not plan on voting on all these candidates. Lots of people held their noses and voted Biden to get rid of evil trump, but a lot of them want to see more progressive action. I don’t think there is an anti Biden vote like there was with trump.
Don’t listen to these polls! Just get out and vote! The media and pollsters are not impartial so you just cannot trust them to be honest. If we mess this up, it’s on us. This is not about PRESIDENT Biden, it’s about what will happen to this country if the republicans regain control of either House or Senate. Our President is doing the best he can with what he has to work with, which is an ultraslim majority, IF you count Manchin and Sinema. Judge him once he gets a REAL majority. Let’s stop judging him now. He’s trying to get his agenda passed but it’s been a choice of bargain with the devils Manchin and Sinema or do nothing.
PLEASE just vote like the democrats are way behind and let’s win this one instead of screwing it up. Well, i feel better now lol!
I agree , Biden is a good decent man doing the best he can. If it wasn’t for Manchin & Sinema always showing their ass trying to get attention, he could move along and get more things done. I hope we can find another decent but younger man to take his place when he leaves office .