As Early Voting Closes, Something New. Nothing But Facts

Here we are. Early voting has already closed in most states, but there are a few, such as Florida that close tonight. Candidates are frantically criss crossing the country, selling their last minute pitches.

Tomorrow will be the proverbial calm before the storm. Candidates will work late into the night, making their closing pitches, but with early voting over, it’s all show to try to drive voters to the polls on Tuesday.

And then, 48 hours from now, Judgement Day. For the last four years Donald Trump has been pissing and whining that the 2020 election was stolen from him. And on Tuesday, the American jurors in the case of Harris v Trump will be busy filling out their own personal jury verdict forms. And in about 72 hours we should have a pretty good idea of how the wind is blowing.

With the close today of early voting, I want to do something you’ve probably never seen from me before. I’m going to give facts. Nothing but facts. No snark, no pathos, no funny names, just facts. Because let’s face it, right now there is a literal galaxy of facts and numbers floating around out there, but like with your backyard telescope, you’re only seeing 1 or 2 at a time. I want to go Hubbel telescope, show you as much of the galaxy as I can, all at once in one place, and then let you decide what the universe looks like. Ready?

• In June the Des Moines Register poll by gold standard pollster Anne Seltser had Trump beating Biden by 18 points. In their final poll last night Harris leads Trump 47-44%. Can  Harris actually win red Iowa? I don’t know, but it shows the extent of the erosion of Trump’s political brand
• When undecided voters are pressed by pollsters to choose which one they would vote for if they had to, Harris leads Trump 41-23%
• By the time early voting closes tonight, more than 75 million people will have voted early. That’s a non Covid record, and represents about 47% of the total votes cast in 2020
• We will have a record gender gap this year. Trump leads with Men +18 and Harris leads with Women by +16. That’s a total 34 point gap
• Women are outperforming men at early voting by a 55-44 gap
• The Democrats enjoy a 13 point enthusiasm gap. 74% of Democrats are excited to vote in the election vs 61% of GOP jazzed up voters
• While early voting is through the roof in 2024, mail in voting is down sharply. This should help speed the vote counting process
• New first time voter registration is spiking, especially among the 18-24 set, something the Harris campaign sees as a positive sign
• Here’s something new. Vote analysts are seeing what they call a Silver Surge, senior citizens showing up in larger numbers than 2020, and voting to protect their Social Security and Medicare benefits from the ravages of Project 2025
• At least in PA, there are signs that GOP vote cannibalization is real and occurring. Statistics show that 55% of GOP early voters actually voted on election day of 2020. meantime, 95% of Democratic early 2024 voters also voted early in 2020, leaving their election day turnout population largely intact
• This weekend in PA, Democratic GOTV activists are knocking on 2,000 doors a minute trying to drum up enthusiasm, and in WI it’s something like 1,500 doors a minute. There are no reported numbers for the Elon Musk turnout efforts
• The ultimate wild card in this election may turn out to be this. While the GOP is crowing about their increased early voter turnout, there is no way to know how many registered GOP voters are going into the booth to vote for Harris. All they have is voter affiliation to go on. Could Trump’s phantom army of 2016 be coming back to bite him in the ass in 2024?
• In a newly released YouGov poll, while 9% of men admit that they have previously voted differently from their partner, 12% of women admit to having voted differently. This could be inportant because of that progressive Evangelical advertising push empowering women to split their vote from their spouses knowing it will never be known

There, now you have it. I’m sure that you’ve heard and seen at least most, if not all of these facts at one time or another, but usually floating around by themselves with nothing to anchor them to anything else. Now you have a whole Golden Corral buffet of valid facts to choose from. And it’s up to you to fill up your plate, and decide what, if anything these facts mean when you put them all together. Bon Appetit!

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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