Are GOP Officials Losing Their Fear Of Trump?

Any Republican who’s in or who aspires to a position of power and influence has had good reason to fear the proverbial ‘Wrath of Trump.’ He’s set his MAGAs loose on more people again and again. Not just careers but lives have been ruined. In some cases certain people will have to look over their shoulder for the rest of their lives. Trump swallowed the GOP whole and his word became law. We had that glaring example earlier this year when in response to the border problem a bi-partisan bill was crafted that had even conservatives over the moon with pet priorities of theirs in it. But Trump wanted, needed even to have “immigration” as an issue so he made phone calls and even issued a public statement to kill it. And the GOP did.  Still, I can’t help but feel a shift has been taking place lately.  Trump is still issuing orders, but GOP politicians aren’t falling in line.

Today for example there’s this article from the conservative Washington Examiner talking about how (for now at least) the attempt by Trump to get Nebraska to change how it allocates Electoral Votes is dead.  The effort to change the law to make Nebraska ‘winner take all’ was in the news quite a bit last week. Even those who aren’t political junkies probably noticed it. None other than Trump lackey Senator Lyndsay Graham made a trip to Nebraska to lobby for the change to ensure a Democrat wouldn’t be able to claim one EV from the (competitive) district where Omaha sits.

None other than Mitch McConnell weighed in, saying this wasn’t the time to be undertaking such a move. That if Nebraskans wanted change they should do so via amending their state’s Constitution. One Nebraska state senator let it be known he wouldn’t play ball and that seemed to be that. However, colleagues and Trump wouldn’t let go of it. Trump suggested his MAGAs get involved even. It took guts for that guy to say no and he deserved some backup. It now seems he has it. As the Examiner notes Gov. Jim Pillen has issued a statement saying he won’t call a Special Session to make a final push to change things to Trump’s liking:

“My team and I have worked relentlessly to secure a filibuster-proof 33-vote majority to get winner-take-all passed before the November election,” Pillen said. “Given everything at stake for Nebraska and our country, we have left every inch on the field to get this done.”

“Unfortunately, we could not persuade 33 state senators,” Pillen continued.

Okay you say, that’s all well and good but it’s just one thing. Except it’s not just the one thing after all. We have been starting down the barrel of the “shutdown shotgun” with Trump and many of the Krazy Kaucus wanting any debt deal (a continuing resolution) to include a bill that would force voters to provide ‘proof of citizenship.’ It doesn’t matter that it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote. It doesn’t matter that the various states have tried and true systems for identifying possible non-citizens who register or attempt to do so and weed them out. It doesn’t matter that few, very few people slip through the cracks and vote and get charged criminally for doing so. In this year when the conservative (led by Trump and Vance) mantra is ‘The illegals are coming and VOTING!  In HORDES!!!!’ that so-called proof of citizenship bill looked good. It was a big ole chunk of red meat to wave to the MAGAs to pump up enthusiasm.

The problem was that the thing was D.O.A over in the Senate. Even most Senate Republicans didn’t want any part of it.  Nor would President Biden have signed it. So the Krazies (and Trump) dreamed of forcing a govt. shutdown and blaming it on Democrats. It quickly became clear from internal polling that if there was a shutdown the public had Republican’s number and it was the GOP that would take the hit. Right while early voting was underway. Sane (or what passes for it) Republicans in the House were horrified. A couple dozen in swing districts and some more in districts that are at best very light red had good reason to fear.  Speaker Mike Johnson initially pulled the proposal with the citizenship to vote part from going to the floor. Trump whined and complained so Johnson relented and put the thing up for a vote.

And both he and Trump suffered a humiliating defeat.

Johnson knows the votes aren’t there for what Trump want. They never have been, however much he might have wished they were.  So Johnson surrendered to reality and got down to working out a deal for a ‘clean’ CR that would fund the govt. for three months and at least get us past the election.  It seems Jeffries was willing to do some heavy lifting if some Democratic priorities were including but a deal got worked out.  As Reuters reports the bill is likely to be voted on in the House tomorrow. Reuters notes that not acting by then will lead to furloughing a lot of federal workers and shut down a range of government function weeks before the election.

Trump may want that.  In fact I’m sure he does. So do a few nutjobs in the House GOP may want it but Johnson seems as I said to have temporarily taken up residence in Reality Land. Per Reuters:

The proposal, which excludes a Trump demand to impose new requirements that people provide proof of citizenship to register to vote, is aligned with what Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had urged, a basic extension of government funding to December. It runs through Dec. 20.

“As history has taught and current polling affirms, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice,” Johnson said in the letter.

However that’s not all folks. Remember how Trump promised free IVF to everyone? Republicans on The Hill quickly shot that one down.  So now we have three recent data points. Dots if you will. To me that’s enough to start connecting and keeping an eye out for more. I can’t decide whether this is yet another dot, especially since you never know when Trump will go off on a rant on Truth Social or twitter.  But the plain fact of the matter is that even if he’s expressed a bit of annoyance Trump hasn’t been RANTING and RAVING about GOP elected officials not doing what he’s telling them to do these days.

I wouldn’t call it open defiance from Republicans. They aren’t standing there on camera and telling him he’s wrong and that what he wants them to do is politically STUPIP for them. It is and they damn well know it but also know better than to bluntly say it.  However there aren’t hiding that they are looking a a bigger picture, and one that doesn’t have Donald Trump issuing orders and them meekly falling in line.  It looks for all the world to me like the pragmatists have chosen to start hedging their bets, hoping to build a post Trump GOP but not piss off so many of his MAGAs in the process as to lose most of them.

There is still plenty of fear in GOP ranks when it comes to Trump. If it weren’t for that fear REPUBLICANS would have dispatched him long ago. Cowards that they are they are counting on Democrats and Independents to do what they can’t bring themselves to do. Stomp Trump down so hard in November that he can never get back up again. And while we’re at it stomp down/crush a big chunk of the MAGA movement in the process.

It remains to be seen whether that will happen.  But the examples I’ve written about here, and also some in an earlier piece I put up on PZ today about even some Republican election officials (at the SecState office level) talking about how election results WILL be certified in a timely manner indicate to me that while Trump’s hold on the GOP is still strong, it’s weakening. I think at this point if a political version of breaking one of Trump’s fingers happens in the weeks ahead he’ll get blown out. One can hope.  However it will probably come down to OUR side working our butts off to get every last person we can registered and voting for Kamala Harris. And other Democrats.

It will be up to us lead the effort to take down Trump. But unless I’m mistaken there are more Republicans than we realize who are going to quietly lend a hand.