Analysis Of “Never Emmer” and Where They Go From Here

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Well, that sure didn’t take long. Tom Emmer is out, withdrew his name from House Speaker contention.  I guess Miss Nancy’s admonition to these boys is starting to take root. Do.The.Arithmetic. Emmer realized he didn’t have the votes, so they didn’t go to the floor. Funny how that saves embarrassment now, isn’t it? Saves time, too. Ms. Pelosi is a wise woman and she’s been in this business a great many years and knows it like the back of her hand. I’m glad something she said is sinking into these thick skulls.

And another problem Emmer had was Don Don The Clown, also known as the GOP frontrunner, knifing him. Fox News carried the story and lo and behold, less than one hour later, Tom Emmer, aka “Globalist RINO” is now history. Where do they go and what do they do now, as the clock ticks and world watches, I wonder? Aaron Blake of the Washington Post has some analysis.

Emmer was probably the most mainstream of the nine candidates who ran for the GOP’s nomination this time around. He voted in favor of same-sex marriage, repeatedly in favor of Ukraine aid and in favor of bipartisan debt ceiling and government funding deals. He also voted against rejecting the 2020 election results, unlike more than two-thirds of House Republicans — an issue that surely stuck in Trump’s craw.

All of these are squarely where most of the House is — and even where many Republicans are — but they’re all liabilities with a hard-right that drives a hard bargain.

And shortly after Emmer won the nomination, we began to see these problems creep in. Emmer’s problem is that there are plenty of issues that could be red lines for hard-right members, even if they don’t all have the same red lines:

  • Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.) said he would not vote for Emmer because of the same-sex marriage vote. “Any way you would vote for him?” CNN’s Manu Raju asked. Allen responded: “No.”

  • Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), whom Emmer defeated to become the No. 3 House Republican last year, said, “Emmer’s not a conservative.” Added Banks: “I’m a conservative. I came to Washington to fight for conservative values. I can’t go along with putting one of the most moderate members of the entire Republican conference in the speaker’s chair.”

  • Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) said he’s not backing Emmer because his constituents want an outsider — i.e. not a member of House leadership.

  • Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) spotlighted Emmer’s votes on spending bills, saying: “I’m concerned about that.”

  • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) focused on several of these issues, along with a couple others, while saying that “he has a voting record I can’t support.”

It’s worth emphasizing that there are few publicly declared “Never Emmers” at this point. Allen, Banks and Greene sounds like they are. But Perry said he wasn’t ruling anyone out at this point, and Crane at least praised Emmer’s honest dealings. Emmer seems to have good relations with members of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, despite not really being aligned with it.

But all it takes is five who decide that voting for a bipartisan deal to keep the government funded — or for same-sex marriage or to certify the 2020 election results — is a bridge too far. Or that replacing McCarthy with another member of leadership isn’t really an improvement. Or that you don’t vote against the wishes of your party’s leader, Trump.

We’re already getting close to that magic number that would torpedo Emmer’s bid. And another speaker-designate going down appears to be a pretty safe bet at this early juncture.

So what’s next? Bobo runs? Or Marge? They listen to Kash Patel and nominate Devin Nunes? Hey, I got it: Louis Gohmert. That’s the ticket. Or if he doesn’t want, Paul Gosar.

You know who actually would be a good leader but they would never ask her? Yes, Liz Chaney.

Who knows how crazy this is going to get? Maybe they will ask Trump to be Speaker. It’s impossible to gauge anything because never in our history have we seen anything this insane in the House. So anything is possible. Literally, anything.

 

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5 COMMENTS

  1. Anything Trump, will be soon limited by the schedule at the prison, they don’t do wholesale rant shows or appreciate random wandering Magas in the halls … Trump will be very lucky to have one visitor at a time …

    Trump will finally get muzzled, FOX NEWS will go out to lunch until something else excites their owners …

    We, fortunately, will no longer be exposed to his public handwaving ancient rhetoric …

    His silent-aloneness will drive him bonkers in a couple weeks, his bright orange garb will make it easier to find him in pictures taken during the trials …

  2. Back when they were voting for McCarthy over & over, & just before the last vote… a near fight almost broke out on the floor of the House when one of the members lunged at Bratty Matty. Who was that guy? I’d be interested in learning more about him. I don’t normally condone violence, but anyone who wants to beat the shit out of Matt Gaetz has something right going on in his head. He should run for Speaker.

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  3. If they are open to creative solutions, I’d suggest a new position called Speaker of the Day. Every member of the House would get their day with the gavel, and at the end of the day a secret vote would be taken to rate their performance. If someone got an exceptionally high rating, a vote would be taken the next day to elect them as Permanent Speaker. Otherwise, when the entire roster was done, the person with the most ‘likes’ would get the job. Of course it’s batshit crazy, but it might raise the bar generally and uncover some gems hidden in the muck.

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Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. In fact, it's the only thing that ever has. — Margaret Mead

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. In fact, it's the only thing that ever has.

— Margaret Mead