I know that the popular mantra for all of those lazy, clueless bastards out there is Why vote? A single vote doesn’t matter in tens of million votes. And personally I’m sick to death of that whiny, self indulgent bullsh*t. In a country as polarized as ours, the margins of undecided and independent voters that actually decide these elections is razor thin. And we already have empirical evidence that that tired old saw is bullsh*t.
In the last several two-year cycles, we have had ample evidence of the power of a single vote. In the last few years, several local elections have been decided by the game of chance method of a coin toss or a draw of cards because the final tally showed an exact tie. A couple of cycles ago, the Democrats lost the chance to flip the Virginia House on a coin flip, since the deciding seat had ended in a tie. And several other races have gone through total deep dive recounts to come up with a winner that ultimately won by five votes or less. So it happens. Life sucks, get a helmet.
Here’s why I’m harping so strongly about this right now. It’s Donald Trump, and this race. And this race is so close that everybody is predicting that it will be decided on the margins. And because of Trump’s electoral toxicity, it’s putting a wild card in the deck you must keep an eye on.
These days you can hardly turn on a cable news network without being assaulted by the news of yet another anti Trump GOP bunch of defectors forming a group. Just to name a couple to give you a basic idea;
- Republican Voters For Harris started a few weeks ago in Arizona, and within 24 hours it had more than 4000 voters registered. It is now a nationwide organization
- A few weeks later Christian Voters For Harris held an online kickoff and fundraising event, and in four hours had more than 6000 pledges to vote for Harris. As pious as evangelicals are, I’d like to take them at their word
I know what you’re thinking, YIPPEEE!!! A few thousand Trump voters out of 147 million are now voting for Harris. BFD! I beg to differ, for two reasons. First, these groups are growing exponentially every day, and endorsements from mainstay GOP leaders like George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, and the Cheneys make a difference.
Here’s the second reason, and it’s simple math. According to a Pennsylvania congresswoman tonight on MSNBC, there are 67 districts in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And in 2016 Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania by some 40,000 votes. If you divide 40,000 by 67, you come up with 597 votes per district. And in each district are numerous precincts. And as a generalization, that works out to something like 60 votes per precinct to flip the results of Pennsylvania to Clinton in 2016.
Now extrapolate that in general principles to Georgia. In 2020 Biden won Georgia by, sing along with Murf now, 11,780 votes. Georgia has fewer electoral votes, so there are likely fewer districts and precincts. Even so, you’re probably talking about a 40-50 vote swing per precinct to change the results.
One more. North Carolina. In 2020 Biden lost North Carolina by something like 1.1%, the closest margin since Obama won the state in 2008. But again, taking into account the changing demographics of the state, it would likely take less than 100 votes per precinct to change the results to the Democratic side.
Catching my drift? As close as the margins are, Harris doesn’t have to swing thousands or tens of thousands of votes in a mass migration to cement or swing a state’s totals. A simple change of 40-50 votes per red or pink precinct could make all the difference in the world.
And it works both ways. In states where Harris is leading, then a simple chipping away of 40-50 votes per precinct, or say 100-150 votes per district could bulletproof her lead against a Trump surge.
And in states where Harris is trailing, then a chipping away of 60-70 votes per precinct, of about 140-170 votes per district, could actually flip the state if Trump remains stagnant in his support.
Right now, every battleground state is within the margin of error, most either tied or a 1.5 points either way. And the chances of the small number of voters per precinct or district being caught in the polls are small. But they’re there, and if they keep multiplying, and if Harris keeps pounding away at the edges, it could be an earlier than expected night on November 5th. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Murf! I finally figured out how to be able to comment on your columns (took months)!!!! I really enjoy your writings, and writing style. I don’t have anything succinct to say so not as good as your other commentators but I wanted to tell you how much entertainment (as well as points I had never thought of). Thank you for what you do.
True Murf. The people that really piss me off are those that don’t vote, or throw away their vote on someone like Kennedy. Those are the ones who like to tout they’re above it all, or who don’t have a clue and say the two parties are the same. I guess they can’t distinguish their car in the lot, their house on the block, which kid is theirs, and piss in the sink since it’s hard to distinguish bathroom fixtures.
So, what do you think is the point for a voter who lives in a heavily red (or blue, for that matter) state or city or district or whatever where the red (or blue) party usually wins with 60% or better? UNLESS the US passes some form of “compulsory/mandatory voting” law, you’re NEVER going to see 70% or better turnout. Hell, getting just 60% is a pretty historic achievement and there are a couple of differing metrics regarding turnout (VAP–percentage of the voting age population, meaning everyone over 18; and VEP–percentage of the voting eligible population, meaning everyone over 18 who’s legally able to vote). If you look at the Wiki pages for the presidential elections, each page has a “voter turnout” figure in percentages. But, go look at the Wiki page for “Voter turnout in the US” and those voter turnout figures differ from the actual presidential election page (for instance, the Wiki page for “2016 Presidential election” shows a voter turnout of 60.1%; you go to the “Voter turnout” page and look at the 2016 election, you get 54.8% VAP and 59.2% VEP–but both pages have the SAME total number of votes cast).
But, the simple fact is that, for instance, I live in Alabama. While I live in a fairly “blue” part of the state and can get Democrats elected to represent me in the State Legislature, I doubt I will ever see the state back a Democratic presidential candidate or another Democratic Senator (due to the last redistricting, I’ve been moved to a new Congressional district and there’s a chance that a Democrat might be elected but I had been in Democrat Teri Sewell’s district prior to this election cycle; I haven’t seen any ads from the Democratic candidate for the district yet and with less than 2 months to go, this is NOT looking like it’ll be a Democratic pick-up*). I still get out to vote (I admit to not voting in the Democratic primary runoff this year since I intended to support whichever Democrat won) even though I know the vote I cast for President will be “wasted” (more than 2.3 million votes were cast in 2020 and Trump won with 62.3% of the statewide vote) but, ironically, a lot of Trump’s 2016 support came from voters who felt they’d been “ignored” by the system (also, you might want to recall how many Bernie supporters are said to have come from a similar feeling “turned off, tuned out, ignored by the system”).
I mean, really. Who the fork are YOU to act like you have ANY reason to judge other people’s actions or behaviors? Let’s put it this way: Say you’re a college student attending a school that is away from your regular home. You spend money in the town where you attend school; you pay taxes to that state and town; you’re helping that state’s economy; you’re subject to that state’s laws. But you have NO say in the state’s politics. You can’t vote in any election held in that state that would actually affect YOUR rights. Sure, you can still vote based on your hometown or home state (casting a mail-in ballot) but that’s not really helping you where you currently live on Election Day. And, if some LOCAL politician decides that the state should charge more tuition for out-of-state residents (and cut tuition for in-state residents) and the state puts it on the ballot, well, even though the outcome will DIRECTLY affect you, you have no say in the matter (you can, of course, try to sway voters’ opinions by pointing out how this rate increase will affect other aspects or how you might be forced to find another college because of this increase–if you work in a local business and have made friends with the clientele, that might influence their potential vote). But, basically Scott, YOU are saying that this hypothetical student’s inability to vote is “pissing you off” despite the situation.
YOU do not know why people don’t vote. And YOUR comments do NOT help skeptics. You seem to forget that GOPers always talk about how if they’re elected all the budget issues will just go away–they’ll cut unnecessary spending and rein in government spending but only if they’re elected. Then, they get in and it turns out they just redirect that spending to stuff that they want while cutting programs they don’t like. So, do you really think these people have NO “clue” when, to THEM and THEIR perspective, both parties ARE the same?
What was that about “casting the first stone” again? Or “walking a mile in another man’s shoes?” Try having some empathy and TALK to those people rather than writing spite-filled diatribes condemning them which they’re unlikely to read.
You mean diatribes like yours? The right to vote was paid for by blood. It should be honored as such. Oh, and I apologize for having the right to be pissed, but it appears you exercise that right quite frequently. I do not want to walk in the shoes of a nazi moron or anyone who supports him directly or indirectly by voting for Jill Stein or Robert Kennedy Jr.
I’ve been truly stumped by people who say both parties are the same. I guess they get their info on the democratic party by what the right wing says about us.
I like the way Australia does it: you’re fined if you don’t participate/vote. Their turnout is usually around 98%.
Not so sure about that. I think that you would get non caring voters who really don’t invest their time to make a good decision.
It would help if public schools would start teaching (or reinstating) CIVICs classes! And the duties/responsibilities of citizenship!