I wrote recently that while there was a record 100 million votes cast before election day, quite likely due in part to the Covid logistics, the 2024 election would probably tend to return more to pre Covid levels. And while we would not likely see 100 million pre election day votes, we likely wouldn’t see 155 million voters in 2024 either.
But there’s some fascinating numbers and scenarios if you dig down a little. The previous projection I wrote about predicted that in 2024, more democrats would return to voting on election day, and some GOP voters would vote again early after discovering the convenience of it in 2020.
A new report released today doesn’t quite mesh. The new data indicates that most Democrats, veteran early voters would continue to vote early, granting that some minority voters return to election day voting, but most GOP voters who heeded the early voting call in 2020 for health reasons, will now return home to vote on election day.
Here come the numbers. Ready for a quick trip?
- Today was the first day of early in-person voting in Georgia, and by 1:30 EDT they had already set a new record for the first day of early in person voting
- Rather than dropping, early in person as well as mail in voting is running about parallel to 2020 levels. This is a promising result for Harris, since it shows that the initial enthusiasm she generated is turning into early votes
- Collated available national early voting and voter patterns from the DMV and focus groups show that Harris has a 17 point lead among confirmed early voters, while Trump has a 9 point lead among confirmed election day voters
- Here’s where that becomes important. Simple math shows that Harris has a net +6 edge when you subtract the two. Let’s just say that you have 80 million early votes with Harris holding a +17 advantage, and Trump has a +9 edge on 65 million election day votes, Where is Trump’s margin of victory? This isn’t the Trump Org, he can’t declare electoral bankruptcy and claim he’s a brilliant politician
But here’s the McGuffin, and it binds everything together. I’m looking forward to the last reputable national poll that has a voter enthusiasm question on it, and here’s why. If Harris has a +6 edge in early vs election day voting, then the only way Trump and the GOP can win is a massive voter day turnout, at least 10 million higher than the early voting tally. I don’t see that happening.
And here’s where the voter enthusiasm poll comes in. The last reputable national poll I saw on that was about 2-3 weeks ago, and Harris had a 74% highly motivated or sure to vote tally, while Trump’s tally was 61%. If Harris already has a 6 point edge in the early vs election day tally, and her voters are 13% more likely to show up, it’s no wonder that Traitor Tot is preparing to use palsied polls to try his 2020 Big steal gambit all over again in 2024.
We’ll know in 21 days, in fact we might well have a pretty good idea, if not a call by this time on November 5th. But early voting has already started, and numbers are numbers. And before you ask, the Harris vs Trump numbers are based on the number of early in person and mail-in voting from the Secretaries of State based on the party affiliation on the voter’s registration form. Which begs the question, How many registered GOP voters out there are going to vote for Harris in the privacy of the booth. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for thye privilege of your time.
By the way, sir, not sure if you’ve seen this yet, but day 1 of early voting in Georgia, of which my husband and I were 2, Blew. Away. the standing record of the most votes in this situation. After reading your column, and that happening, I’m hoping it means good things.
Crossing my fingers,
Susan
The magats are being told the same message as we more stable people are being told – that this is the most important election of their lives and that if they don’t vote, on Election Day, that democracy as they know it will be lost. We may see very big numbers on Election Day when the magats all crawl out of their caves and vote.