A Canary In The Coal Mine?

You all know that I’ve been having more fun than the original barrel those monkeys came in with the census. Hell, having grown up on Avalon-Hill battle simulation games, it’s exactly the kind of tactical challenge I enjoy. Plus there’s no end to the number of ways you can play the game.

With the GOP going all in on culture wars and living in the past with the Big Lie, 2022 has the rare opportunity to be a cycle when the party in power doesn’t take a shave and a haircut. But 2020 was a census year, and 2021 is the redistricting year, and the nail biters and doomsayers are already predicting that the GOP could realistically pick up 6-10 seats purely through the evils of gerrymander redistricting, forcing the Democrats to pick up seats just to stay close. You all know that I have taken a cautionary stance on that theory.

Texas was/is supposed to be the poster child for this. Hell, due to population growth, Texas is gaining two seats for the next decade. And the GOP has dictatorial control over the state legislature. The problem is that 95% of the population growth in Texas is minority populations, and they’re spreading out.

Today the Texas redistricting committee released a draft map for their 2021 redistricting for discussion and debate. Two different experts have already looked at the map and they found something that is potentially very interesting. What they found was basically that I just might not be as stupid as I look. The two new districts were carved from large, solid GOP territory. But rather than trying to slice, dice and puree the already existing districts to create more GOP favorable seats to expand their majority, instead they chose to shuffle the existing lines around to shore up and buttress the districts they already control, and keep the Democrats from encroaching.

This is bad news for the GOP for three reasons. First, with the kind of population growth that allowed the GOP to pick up two new seats, they should have easily been able to use that muscle to create 2-4 new seats. The fact that the growth was fueled by minority populations, and was diluting GOP suburban strongholds left the GOP simply trying to avoid losing any existing seats. Second, it seems obvious to me that at least the Texas GOP has realized that their strategy of trying to out-Trump Trump, and their hijinks with their anti abortion law, they may well lose the white suburban women’s vote in 2022, and had to take steps to account for that.

But the third one is the killer. This is 2021, the redistricting year. Historically, redistricting is most effective in the first 2-3 years after being adopted. After that, population migration and other factors start to erode the initial benefits. And if the minority population growth in Texas keeps expanding at anything like the current rate, and it appears to be on track to do so, then 2024 brings with it the very real risk that some of the districts the GOP shored up in 2020 may not be so secure anymore. And I don’t just mean the US House, the Texas legislature could become more vulnerable as well.

I am going to be watching this closely. For instance, Arizona is in the same boat as Texas. It’s population growth was also led by minority growth, and early looks also show them spreading out. This could put Arizona at higher risk of slipping blue, and states such as Nevada and New Mexico may well begin to trend a bit more solidly blue. And most of all, I’ll be watching the two states I wrote about a day or so ago, North and South Dakota. In states that sparsely populated, it doesn’t take all that much of a minority population explosion to tip the balance. Don’t touch that dial.

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