For those of you who haven’t been paying attention, China is a superpower. This is from News.com (Australia), merely placed here to prove that China isn’t f’ing around:
The moment a Chinese nuclear submarine slipped out of a secret underground base has been caught by satellite – laying bare the extent of China’s military ambitions.
Just a few pixels on a commercial-grade Earth-observation satellite photograph, it portrays a piece of Hainan Island – a strategically significant 35,400sq km land mass off the south coast of China.
It’s the location of a major naval base – much of it concealed in a bunker built deep under a mountain peninsula. What was captured appears to be two tugboats maneuvering a nuclear-powered attack submarine out of a camouflaged tunnel.
China has built a naval base inside a damned mountain. They have been building up their military for a long time. China has one billion more people than the U.S. They are a superpower, and superpowers aren’t supposed to fight wars against each other. Even without nukes, it’s almost mutually assured destruction.
But China doesn’t think Taiwan gets to be its own country, ever. That is why a U.S. Air Force General believes that China and the U.S. will be at war in 2025. From NBC News:
A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing “a clip” at a target, and “aim for the head.”
In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.” Air Mobility Command has nearly 50,000 service members and nearly 500 planes and is responsible for transport and refueling.
Okay, sure – but why two years from now (Prepare for an answer that makes more sense than you want):
Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.
I wrote a Substack article two months ago in which I said that I personally cannot even see past November 10, 2024, because I don’t know if the United States can successfully elect a president again. In January 2025, the U.S. may still be arguing as to who the Commander in Chief will be. The Pentagon might not even be sure whose orders they should follow. This is a worst-case scenario, but it’s more than possible.
As for Taiwan being distracted? It almost doesn’t matter. China could overrun Taiwan by tomorrow if it really wanted to. But it never hurts to have a distracted enemy.
This prediction makes far too much sense. Russia is already at war with Ukraine. Why wouldn’t China move on an island that they’ve always claimed as “Chinese?”
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[email protected], @JasonMiciak, SUBSTACK: MEMPHIS HORROR: AND THE GOP ACTIVELY FIGHTS WAKING UP TO OUR INHUMANITY
“Why won’t China…?” Because China’s getting most of what it wants (power) by peaceful economic means, and sees no need for military adventures. Xi may be an asshole but he’s not stupid. He knows that the USA will defend Taiwan, at least as long as the island remains the planet’s biggest source of microchip technology.
Add in how China has an annoying tendency that always keeps them from greatness: a desire to suddenly turn inward before it finishes its outreach to the world. Tripped them up in the 1500s, then during the Cold War. Near as I can tell, barreling down that same road now, if the rumblings I’ve been hearing about the One Belt, One Road Initiative are any sign.
Yeah, yank back the throttle, alright, General? China has a lot of other problems in their backyard–COVID resurgence, real estate market troubles, a rapidly aging population–that makes them a little more weak than you want to pretend. Frankly, you come off as a caricature outta Dr. Strangelove, soooo eager to use your latest toys. If that’s what you’re after, I’m sure the Ukrainians could oblige you.
For the sake of being impartial, the OFFICIAL policy in Taiwan (aka “The Republic of China” in official circles) is that Taiwan is merely the remnants of the LEGITIMATE government of China. And, unlike the Beijing government, the Republic of China–currently based in Taipei–maintains claims to Mongolia and parts of India and Myanmar that were part of the old Chinese Empire overthrown by Sun’s Nationalist/Republican forces before WW1.
At any rate, Beijing and Taipei will keep the sabers rattling but won’t do anything more than that. Beijing’s economy would collapse (especially as Taiwan-based companies do business on the mainland as do many Japanese and South Korean companies). Vietnam would be willing to move into a distracted China and Beijing would see major problems in Hong Kong (that would make their recent problems there look like nursery school nap time; and with HK being part of Beijing’s major economic plan, it’s not like a military solution will work). Plus, a Beijing attack on Taiwan would allow other ethnic groups–especially the Uyghurs–to be more agitated; the major Muslim powers have largely ignored the Uyghur issue but a greater Uyghur uprising would force them to risk their own reputations in the Muslim world if they failed to aid their Muslim “brothers” (so I can imagine some of the oil taps being closed).
“For the sake of being impartial, the OFFICIAL policy in Taiwan (aka “The Republic of China” in official circles) is that Taiwan is merely the remnants of the LEGITIMATE government of China.”
That is only because the PEOPLE’s Republic of China (i.e. mainland) has never ruled Taiwan. and it would be suicidal to declare independence. But I doubt anybody but a few 100-year olds from the mainland seriously believes the Republic of China is a real thing. The Kuomintang Party probably believes, they are the remnants of the legitimate government of China, bit most Taiwanese do not identify as Chinese. True, the “official” language of Taiwan is Mandarin, and almost everybody speaks it to some extent, but the main language in everyday use is Hokkien (Taiwanese). But many other minority languages are spoken and indeed encouraged.
“In June 2008, a TVBS poll found that 68% of the respondents identify themselves as “Taiwanese” while 18% would call themselves “Chinese”. In 2015, a poll conducted by the Taiwan Braintrust showed that about 90 percent of the population would identify themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_people
China has been flexing its muscles in the Pacific for quite a few years now and has much more economic influence than should have been the case. They’ve included military expansion to bases down their side of the Pacific rim and have intimidated a lot of countries in the process into more favorable economic agreements. A LOT of progressives were furious with Obama for the TPP if you recall, and for Clinton’s intent to move forward with it. I’m sure her stance cost her some voter enthusiasm, and then there was the economic populisms bullshit Trump sold to the MAGAs The end result is that while the U.S. was hardly going to be in a position to dictate terms we literally gave up a seat at the table in economic affairs/agreements during a key period in time.
China has been getting what it wanted without the whole mess of invading Taiwan. Still, the loss of face for them that Taiwan remains NOT firmly under their control doesn’t go over well with the old guard in China, and culturally they pay a lot of deference to the old folks. Add in the distances involved in supporting Taiwan would make it a far more difficult proposition than what we’ve done with Ukraine (plus no NATO in the Pacific) and the aftermath of the 2024 election might be an opportunity too good to resist for them. I don’t think China will go for it but we’d be foolish not to be planning for it.
Now, as for that base built into a mountain you mentioned. The Air Force looks at that military problem in one way, but I’m sure our Navy has been long at work addressing closing off access to the ocean from it. It’s a safe bet that a version of the GIUK barrier has been established close to that base and it’s a LOT less area to cover (and monitor), and I’m pretty sure we could close that base up a helluva lot easier (and faster) than they’d be able to do to us at our bases – even Pearl.