There’s an opening for California Attorney General because Joe Biden appointed Xavier Becerra to head up Health and Human Services. Axios is reporting that Adam Schiff wants the job.
Why it matters: If Newsom selects Schiff, chair of the House Intelligence Committee and a confidant of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Democrats would lose a powerful party voice in the U.S. House and temporarily give up a seat in their slim 221-211 majority.
Nonetheless, Pelosi has given her approval to Schiff’s bid, a clear sign she thinks she can manage without him, according to the people familiar with the matter. Spokespersons for Schiff and Pelosi declined comment.
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The attorney general’s job also would better position Schiff, a high-profile Democrat who led the Russia investigation into then-President Donald Trump, to run for Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat, should the 87-year-old decide not to run for reelection in 2024.
Schiff is an outstanding prosecutor, there’s no question about that. California would do well to have him in the position.
But who will take his seat?
I think that’s determined by a special election, especially this early in the Congressional session. If a vacancy occurs later on (for instance, if it happened at this time next year), there’s usually more leeway.
For instance, when Duncan Hunter (C-50) resigned back in January of 2020 (this would be in the 2nd session of the 116th Congress), his seat remained vacant until the general election in November. When Katie Hill (C-25) resigned (or, more accurately, was forced to resign) in November of 2019, a special election was set for May of 2020 with the general election where the winner had to defend the seat.
Whatever happens, Schiff’s replacement will most likely be a Democrat; Schiff’s outperformed every GOPer thrown at him since by at least a 2 to 1 margin since 2002, and has outperformed by a 3 to 1 margin since 2012. What’s kind of odd about the past decade’s elections is that Schiff has scored a definitive majority in the “free-for-all” primary (in which the “top two” finishers then compete) and yet, he was then forced to run a general election campaign where he INCREASED his margin of victory. In 2012, he got 59% of the primary vote while his closest competitor only got 17%; in the general election, Schiff got 76.5% to the other guy’s 23.5%. In 2014, Schiff’s primary win was 74.5% to just 18% for the number two guy; in the general election, Schiff got 76.5% to the other guy’s 23.5%. In 2016, Schiff got 70% in the primary to the second-place’s 18%; in the general election, it was 78-22. In MOST states where they have these free-for-all primaries, if one candidate scores 50% + 1, they automatically win the seat; there’s no need for a “run-off” (barring any evidence of collusion between candidates’ campaigns or other irregularities; if the top guy should finish with a 50% + 1 of the vote and the number two guy finishes with 49.999%–meaning just a few dozen or few hundred votes’ difference–a recount can be called to confirm or refute the results but, generally, there’s no place for a run-off unless the recount fails to uphold the original results).
Reps serve *two year* terms. There won’t need to be a special election.
Thanks for the comprehensive reply Joseph. I take heart.
It doesn’t apply. If Schiff decides to run for AG in 2022, he may choose not to run for Congress. ALL House seats have 2-year terms, so there wouldn’t be a special election.
YOU’RE FORGETTING THAT HOUSE SEATS HAVE 2-YEAR TERMS. No special election would be needed.
WRONG. Schiff is in the House – there wouldn’t be a special election.
California law gives Newsom discretion over whether to hold a special or leave the seat empty. He’s taken both options in the past.
Usually cost is a driving concern…CA elections are expensive. However, that’s less of a factor now. L.A. County has permanent voting centers and universal mail ballots, so that might help there. Plus the district has a small footprint.
We also have a state mandated June election. Governors are more apt to call for a House special election if they can set the primary or general on that day.
My guess is that if Newsom makes his choice soon, we’d have a special election this year. Also, since it’s a D+23 district (which sits three blocks north of me, I’m served by Rep Chu), there’s a good chance it would be a Dem vs Dem general election owing to the jungle primary. However, you could end up Dem vs GOP if we have thirty Democrats pile on, which is what happened when we replaced Rep Waxman in 2016.
He’d be better than some of those in the recent past.
We’ve had pretty awesome AG’s for the twenty years I’ve voted here, and of course few could beat the progressive and game-changing record of Kamala Harris. But Schiff would make a pretty great A.G. too.
Well, that may explain why he’s not on the impeachment managers’ team this time, not that there’s any dearth of talent there. it left a spot for Joe Neguse, a real rising star.
I suspect that the caucus agreed to an entirely new team given the rare opportunity this presents.
Because Gavin Newsom named Kamala Harris’s replacement to the Senate, we know that California ia a state in which the governor appoints. And we know Gavin Newsom is a Democrat. I would pretty much trust him to appoint someone competent. During this presidency, a good prosecutor is probably more crucial to the state than to the House (and, as Anastasia said, there’s no shortage of talent now.)
It’s a thing where he has been our hero as head of the investigative committee in our House, with top of the line access to the machinations going on across Congress and annoyingly would drum on Trump’s stupidity …
Trump, of course, had a nickname for him right away, because he knew in his little black heart, that in a direct confrontation, Adam would reduce him to a sniveling coward he actually is …
All those Reps from CA have a lot of traveling to do to get to the meetings in DC … I used to travel a lot in my job and it wears on you and your family, and your pets, we have an African Gray parrot, and when I was away too long, she’d ask my wife where’s PAPA, expecting a good answer … 🙂
So, there’s always that, he might like to build model airplanes or rockets, whatever he ends up doing he will do it well, he has a calm scary attitude for any guilty party in a courtroom …