Normally Texas would be a safe place for any Republican running in a statewide race. Republicans there have been a bit bothered in recent cycles about having to work a bit and also spend some real money to stave off Democratic challengers. With Ken Paxton as their Senate candidate Texas Republicans are scared and they should be. If not for Trump’s intervention John Cornyn would be on the ballot and have a much better chance against James Talarico. The thing is, Trump’s unpopularity is so bad even in ruby red Texas it could cost the GOP a Senate seat.
MAGA did what Trump wanted and provided the votes in the primary to give Paxton the nomination over John Cornyn, who’s ‘unforgivable sin’ was not being total and complete worship of Trump and all his words and deeds. Even non-hard-core MAGAs in Texas wished Paxton had been convicted at his own impeachment and out of politics. However even with tanking approval ratings MAGA came through for Trump and put Paxton on the ballot. Despite ongoing anger with Trump over the Iran war and the Epstein files MAGA will for the most part show up and vote for Paxton. The problem is that there aren’t enough of them to be sure Paxton will win in November.
As this short article from Raw Story explains Paxton’s problems are numerous and include Trump’s endorsement as being more of an anchor around his neck than a life preserver. It describes a discussion on CNN this morning of a panel that included Republican operatives about what precisely was the biggest problem Paxton faces. Three major concerns they cited are causing Republicans in Texas a lot of angst. GOP strategist Kristin Davis talked about messaging:
“It’s time to start saying, ‘Okay, we really need to make the case,'” she said. “Get out of the Twitter world, get out of the internet, talk about the real life issues that are going on and people in Texas.”
If you’ve been following this race then you know that like Republicans all over the country Paxton tries like hell to avoid actually engaging with voters in town halls, or even smaller gatherings. He’s also spent relatively little time doing interviews with journalists on TV and even running off when a question made him uncomfortable. Paxton likely assumed that since this was Texas, in the end it would be another case of Democrat’s hopes being cruelly dashed. They’d be Charlie Brown trying to finally get to kick that football only to have Lucy snatch it away at the last second. The thing is, “Lucy” has Trump distracting her and she might lose focus and not snatch the football away in time!
Going beyond general messaging, Kate Bedingfield argued no messaging would matter with women voters. As an old white dude I’ve never understood how women voters overall have voted for Republicans in the numbers they continually do. However that’s started to change and due to more than SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade. Even those more traditional self-professed Christian women are getting fed up with the cost of living. Grocery stores prices. The cost of back to school clothes (even if they home school their kids) and other items. Week after week they try to overlook Trump’s flaws and if nothing else having to deal with a hubby who rips on them about why they need more allowance for maintaining the household has to be wearing them down.
So there’s Trump fatigue with Republicans, but there are Democrats in Texas too and also Independent voters. When it comes to Independents some are truly ‘in the middle’ and many lean conservative or progressive.
It doesn’t seem to matter this year as Trump’s most hard core MAGA base still is loyal to him. Paxton? His flaws include marital woes and while Trump has gotten away with his treatment of women Paxton is, like so many others learning that Trump’s ability to defy the laws of political physics is unique to Trump and even Trump is starting to be affected by political gravity. Bedingfield says she’s being told by Democrats that they (Republicans) are having trouble getting moderate and Independent women on board:
“Texas is a state where Republicans should not have to, in theory, be spending money to defend a seat that should be, you know, a cakewalk,” she said. “He is a very damaged candidate.”
Co-panelist Jamal Simmons brought the point home by bluntly saying Paxton’s biggest problem is the political leader who endorsed him – President Donald Trump. He said not only is Trump NOT ‘Making America Great Again’, but that Trump is “making America look goofy.” He went on to list problems that have (particularly in Texas) bedeviled Trump’s second term including measles outbreaks, rising inflation and trade wars with Canada.
Then Simmons delivered his warning.
“The president is treating Washington, D.C., like it’s his own personal amusement park,” he said. “This is not what America voted for and I think they’re going to punish the president on Election Day.”
While the CNN panel was talking about punishing Trump by not voting for Paxton or worse, switching and voting for Talarico the GOP problem isn’t limited to Texas. However it would be more than a huge embarrassment to lose a Senate race in Texas. It would sent shockwaves around the country with 2028 looming on the horizon. So yes, the GOP needs to somehow hang on but Texas is a big state and a hugely expensive one to campaign in. The money and other resources (political advisor talent) it will take to pull out a win for Paxton in Texas is badly needed in lots of other places.
Republicans are on defense all over the country and few people believe Trump will kick in some of that huge war chest he’s accumulated to help other candidates. Big time political donors are showing signs of not wanting to waste money this year as well. Even the tech bros are hesitant to ante up with data centers being an increasingly toxic issue. Hell, in Texas even Gov. Abbot has just done an about face and says no more data centers for now. None other than Elon Musk has one in the works there and he might get pissy and spend his dollars in other states.
My main takeaway is that statement about voters wanting to “punish” Trump. About the only way they can do so is to not vote this fall, or vote for Democrats. The environment is such that any GOP incumbent who won by less than ten percent (or his running in such a district) is vulnerable even with the gerrymandering that’s happened this year.
I’m not predicting Talarico winning in November but it’s clear the GOP hasn’t been this vulnerable in a statewide race in decades. If they aren’t already panicking they are close to it. The thing about panic is its tendency to spread. Republicans, both candidates and voters in other states are noticing. However we have to do OUR part and keep the pressure on. Not just make a plan (NOW) to ensure our vote is cast and counted but get others to do the same. Let’s all of us make sure Trump gets punishment in the form of an old school paddling in the principal’s office.
