Trump is in political trouble and he knows it. Worse (for him, which he also knows) it’s all trouble of his own making. That usually happens to people who ‘write checks with their mouths that they can’t cash with their butts.’ Even, if not often enough to Donald Trump. He’s led with his chin and been knocked on his fat butt. He’s finally realized how lame a duck he will be if Democrats retake control on Capitol Hill in November. To keep that from happening he’s faced with a proverbial Hobson’s Choice. Lose (hopefully) Little or Lose Big and his choice is between capitulating on Iran, or keeping the war going to distract from Epstein.
For Trump it’s a lousy set of choices but he’s only got himself to blame. Poison #1 was, and still is the Epstein files, as in letting them become a key news topic again. Poison #2 is ongoing news coverage about Iran getting the better of him – both not being military destroyed (hurt yes, but still dangerously capable) which might save him with hard core MAGAs but hurt him with everyone else including GOPers with a tenuous acquaintance with reality. With negotiations likely to drag on for months the Epstein Files will again get coverage but not nearly as much as would have been the case.
Trump has chosen his poison. The drip drip humiliation of starting and losing a war with Iran. AND making Iran stronger on the world stage in the process. AND causing enough economic damage around the world that U.S. power and clout which was already diminished drops still more.
I’ll bet these days Trumpty is wishing he’d listened to ‘Little’ Marco Rubio and gone for regime change in Cuba. Of course that would have been a fiasco too. I don’t doubt our military would have beaten Cuba’s but it would have taken ground troops and a lot more than thirteen American lives. It would have been Iraq 2.0. A week of average folks celebrating and then GTFO. Followed by a years long bloody insurgency. Anyone who thinks Cubans wouldn’t react with destruction and violence to a Trump Tower Cuba and American developers coming in with their own projects is delusional.
In any case it’s been apparent for a long time that Trump desperately needed and was seeking an off ramp from his Iran war. About the only thing he could do that he could try to claim made it a win was get the Strait of Hormuz open again. He figures if he makes a big enough deal out of that, MAGAs will forgive him before voting starts. Trump’s betting that hollering ‘FAKE NEWS’ at all the news coverage of how much we are giving in to Iran will both shore up his most crucial voting bloc but get them to the polls. We’ll, we will have to wait and see on that.
Trump has picked his poison. He’s betting it will be an antidote with MAGAs and enough so to help other Republicans get their votes this fall. However the poison Trump has picked will affect more than MAGA goobers. Iran getting betters terms on every point in a new version of Obama’s JCPOA (Joint Plan Of Action) is a poison that could do every bit, as much (if not more) damage with Independents (and of course Democrats) but that’s the pill Trump is wants to go with.
His problem is that both Iran and Netanyahu might prevent Trump from exercising his choice. Iran’s hardliners might both push Trump too far and too fast on some serious issues standing in the way of a lasting agreement. That would provoke Trump lashing out with more airstrikes meaning both the war continues and passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Or too risky to insurers to allow ships to go ahead and sail though. Then there’s Netanyahu who is furious with Trump. For now he’s mostly going along but he needs war to stay in power and out of jail. I just don’t see him NOT provoking matters in Lebanon and them hitting back.
I for one believe Netanyahu allowed the appalling Oct. 7 terrorist attacks to get Israel and the world to rally around him. I also think he hoped there’s be a bonus in the move hanging an anchor around Biden’s neck. Sure enough the nuance of curtailing military aid to Israel to defensive stuff was lost on too much of a dumbed down American electorate. Bibi knew Trump would get another crack at Biden and his actions would make Biden vulnerable. As sitting VP Harris couldn’t do a clean break with administration policy and say major changes would be coming if elected.
Now? Netanyahu knows there’s no chance Trump will allow major pullback of military support to Israel. Trump is actually more popular there than Netanyahu but Bibi is cunning and I promise you is working on provoking renewed hostilities with Hezbollah without leaving any fingerprints. And in the process blowing up any cease fire in effect as an agreement is worked out between the U.S. and Iran.
Trump started a war to try and fix his approval ratings which had tanked due to the Epstein files. He got the distraction he wanted but his approval has continued to slip. Faced with two unpalatable options, two poisons Trump has made his pick. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be allowed to actually take the poison pill he’s chosen. And if he can whether it will turn out to have been the right choice.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
