Robert Reich recently went to a dinner party, where the other guests gave the foregoing fantasy a 30% chance of taking place in real life — and more if the prices of gas and groceries keep going up like they have been in recent months. The cast of characters who would be responsible for replacing Trump under the 25th Amendment will blow your mind, chiefly because they need to be replaced in their current positions themselves. So come and fantasize away on the latest “plot” against Trump by his own henchmen. Beware the ides of May.
In my dinner companions’ fantasy, Trump’s failed war will elevate gas and food prices so high and long that much of the Republican base will begin turning against Trump. And Trump’s mental problems will become even more obvious.
Faced with all this, JD Vance promises Marco Rubio that he’ll appoint him vice president if Rubio joins Vance in seeking to oust Trump under the 25th Amendment.* Rubio agrees.
Vance and Rubio then approach House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune for confidential discussions in which they broach the possibility. Johnson and Thune give Vance and Rubio their tacit support.
Vance and Rubio then get Pete Hegseth to sign on, promising Hegseth that he’ll keep his job. They get Todd Blanche to sign on by promising him he’ll be appointed permanent attorney general.
Vance, Rubio, Hegseth, and Blanche are what Thune and Johnson need to make the 25th stick.
This arrangement serves everyone’s interests. For Vance and Rubio, it avoids what could be a messy 2028 primary election in which the two are pitted against each other. As president, Vance gets a head start on being elected president in 2028. As vice president, Rubio is heir apparent in 2032 (when Rubio will be only 60 years old) or in 2036.
As president and vice president, Vance and Rubio end Trump’s tariffs and his war, which have caused prices to soar, upset the Republican base, and turned much of the world against America.
Hegseth gets the job security he’s desperate for. Blanche gets the promotion he covets.
Is your head spinning yet? Is this band of desperados breaking free from Trump and all becoming Judas-es at the same time an engaging yarn for you? And yes, we know, all of these guys are as hated as Trump is himself, which means giving even a thirty percent chance of success in the next four months makes it seem particularly incredible, like the rats taking over the sinking ship of state after the captain has gone completely mad and rammed into one economic iceberg after another.
Republicans in the House and Senate get rid of Trump, who’s become an albatross around their necks and who they fear, if he remains in office, will cause them to lose control over the House and Senate in the midterms — and could lead to a congressional rout in 2028.
The plan is finalized when Trump is away at Mar-a-Lago. It’s executed in a conference call to Trump — during which Vance, Rubio, Hegseth, Blanche, Johnson, and Thune notify Trump he’s no longer president.
Trump screams, hollers, pounds his Mar-a-Lago desk, and threatens legal action, but there’s nothing he can do. He’s out of office.
I listened intently as my dinner companions spelled all this out. “So you really think there’s a 30 percent chance of this happening?” I asked them.
“Could be higher if the war continues,” one of them said, and the others agreed. Another of them thought the odds already higher.
“I can’t decide whether to be elated or worried,” I responded.
They laughed, but I was serious.
To get completely real for a moment, imagine what it would take for these loyalists to turn on Trump and strike out on their own in a power play. Again, as despised as they are, they would be seen as skating out on the ice alone.
But, if they actually can unify and stay unified, they could conceivably pull this off as described. I join Robert Reich in being worried. Very worried.
And Trump does not see this coming. No, he’s too busy trolling about running again in 2028 to see that his own term of office could be over way before he’s ready and has chosen an heir to his throne. The element of surprise would be totally with Vance, et al. Would they do it? How bad do things have to get before they use the 25th Amendment? That’s the trigger question.
