War is a complex subject. Donald Trump has made the effort to simplify it by getting rid of all the experts who used to be in our government and preaching a simplistic doctrine. There’s now a perfect loop of disinformation in our government, self-imposed, amongst people who don’t know what’s really going on in Iran. This becomes evident when you ask experts outside the government loop.
… Brett Erickson with Obsidian Risk Advisors: “Trump has boxed himself into a corner. Kinetic strikes, while militarily successful, did not force Iran to capitulate or topple. The blockade has been nothing short of a disaster predicated on unrealistic timelines. What is most concerning to me, is the TOTAL lack of coherence from Trump and Scott Bessent.”
… “Just yesterday, we heard Bessent state that Iran has ‘a week’ until they are forced to shut-in their oil wells. A week ago, we heard Trump tell Fox that Iran’s ‘oil infrastructure will explode in 3 days’. Now, on the Hugh Hewitt show today, he said Iran has ‘two weeks’.”
… “My own projections put this timeline in the range of 50-80 days – possibly longer, and this analysis has been backed by other prominent experts. We’re asleep at the wheel, and have no way out. The Strait is closed. We’re losing close to 13M barrels per day. Well more than 600M barrels have been lost throughout the conflict. No Pete, we do not control the Strait. No Scott, we are not Jiujitsuing the Iranian’s. No Donald, their old infrastructure is not going to ‘explode’.”
… “It is time to step down from our maximalist demands, abandon the sunk cost fallacy, and make hard and painful decisions at the negotiating table because we have been strategically outplayed with no viable path to success remaining. Enough is enough.”
Enough is never enough for Trump. Look for Iran to become the Iraq of Vietnams. Cooler heads and better minds are saying get out now and being completely ignored.
