For decades RFK Jr. fronted the anti-vax movement, mostly by citing debunked (even the original researcher admitted the study was flawed) research as the cause of increased cases of autism. Let’s face it. He’s not his dad. Never was and if he weren’t a Kennedy would never have amounted to jack. But he gained fame, and a following hawking his autism is caused by vaccines crap and done a helluva lot of damage (including deaths) to the public health of this country. Now he says there’s a new culprit. Circumcisions. I kid you not.

Circumcision is a common practice in this country. It usually is performed on baby boys just after birth, right there in the hospital. For observant Jewish people a specially trained Rabbi, a ‘mohel’ does the procedure in a religious ceremony eight days after birth. The point is that while most of us guys are squeamish it almost always happens long before we can remember it. Yet some don’t want their boys to have it done for a variety of reasons.  On the other hand pediatricians can cite lifelong benefits in the form of reduced infections to the penis.

What matters now is that RFK Jr. has a bug up his a$$, or maybe another worm eating away more of his brain and in his zeal to reduce cases of autism, itself a laudable goal he’s using junk science to stamp out circumcisions. This article from CBS News (All the good journalists haven’t yet fled) breaks it down.  To be fair, RFK is saying it’s not the actual circumcision but that babies are given Tylenol after it’s done. As you know, he’s on a larger anti-Tylenol campaign citing (of course) bogus studies about pregnant women taking it and it leading to issues for their children.

I’m an old fart and Tylenol didn’t even exist back when I got “snipped” although it’s active ingredient might have been invented by then. More to the point, from articles I’ve read about RFK Jr. hopping on this new hobby horse despite his penchant for citing bogus studies he doesn’t include one stating the percentage of newborn boys getting a dose of Tylenol after circumcision. Hmmmm. Still, he’s determined to make this into a big freaking deal and as head of HHS he’s got the platform to do so. He’s using, or perhaps more accurately abusing it. The linked article addresses this very issue however:

“There is absolutely no studies establishing any causality,” Dr. Steven Abelowitz, founder and medical director of Ocean Pediatrics, told CBS News. “While some observational studies suggest possibly an association, there’s no studies (showing causality) — and the conclusion by any credible medical resource is agreeing that there’s no causal relationship between Tylenol, circumcisions or vaccines to autism.”

Acetaminophen — the active ingredient in Tylenol and many cold and flu medications — being at the base of the circumcision theory also doesn’t add up in terms of timing, according to experts. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, children younger than 12 weeks should not be given acetaminophen unless instructed by their pediatrician, and most circumcisions happen before then with a local anesthetic.

While circumcision can happen at any age, most occur within the first week after birth and usually within the first 48 hours, according to the Cleveland Clinic.

Abelowitz noted that over thirty years he’s performed around 10,000 circumcisions, adding “We almost never, ever use Tylenol after circumcision.”

You think self-professed ‘expert’ like RFK Jr. would pay attention to that kind of information? Or people who actually treat actual patients?  Of course not. During a Cabinet meeting last week Kennedy claimed there were two studies (he didn’t cite them) showing children who are circumcised early have double the rate of autism. He went on to make the claim it’s “highly likely” because they are given Tylenol.” Let’s backtrack a bit. Circumcision is a surgical procedure that removes the foreskin from a boy’s penis. As I noted earlier for some parents it’s part of cultural or religious practices. For others it’s because as I also noted earlier it can reduce the chances of bacterial growth in what for bacteria would be ideal conditions. Not for nothing but a developing infection can be transferred to a sexual partner during intercourse.

In some countries it’s uncommon unless for religious (Judaism and Islam) reasons. In the U.S. it’s far from near universal but still fairly routine although it’s declined some. A 2025 study from Johns Hopkins Medicine found the prevalence of the practice had decreased nearly 5%, going from 54.1% to 49.3% from 2012 to 2022.  In any case medical professionals are pushing back on Kennedy’s claims. Remember, he’s not a doctor. He has no medical training. He has no education in public health. Basically He has no experience working in any capacity actual providing health care. At least until Trump named him head of HHS. That gives him enormous power over everyone’s health. The kind of power a crackpot medical quack should NOT have. But he’s in a critical job and like his boss Trump once he gets a stupid idea in his head he won’t admit he was wrong. He will double, then triple down and so on and just make sh*t up as he goes:

Kennedy did not cite the studies he was referring to, but experts say potential matches — a 2013 study of eight countries and a 2015 study from Denmark, which both suggested a link between circumcision and autism rates — have issues.

The 2013study looked at circumcision rates in boys versus autism rates. The authors admitted that national and state averages may show correlation, not causation, and said their study may have mistakes, bias and confounding. “Circumcision practices are also tied to culture and religion, which also affect autism diagnoses and health care use,” said Dr. Céline Gounder, CBS News medical contributor and editor-at-large for public health at KFF Health News.

The linked article goes on to address the second study and how it doesn’t support what Kennedy claims it does. This has already gotten longer than I wanted but I need to make an important point. RFK Jr., who really should know better is again doing what so many people do. Statisticians call is mistakenly using correlational data to prove causation. In the real world it  happens all the time among people who don’t look at the totality of circumstances. Long ago when dinosaurs ruled the earth and I was an undergrad majoring in psychology I had to pass a brutal course that covered THREE textbooks regarding use of statistics in research.

The professor who was also the head of the department gave a great example everyone can relate to.  There are clouds in the sky when it rains. EVERY time. Ergo people say clouds cause rain. Statistically a perfect 1:1 correlation exists for this premise. Except he asked what about all the times there are clouds, not just white puffy ones in a blue sky but a sky covered in gray clouds and it DOESN’T rain? Yes he said clouds are made up of water vapor but that’s not why they produce rain. A third factor is involved – relative humidity. When IT rises to a certain point only then does it rain. It’s not the clouds themselves, but an oversaturation of humidity in the atmosphere.

Correlation doesn’t equal causation. Or in plainer terms what we sometimes see as cause and effect are nothing of the sort. Toss in conflation (adding in a third factor without realizing it) which is also explained in CBS’ article and you get the kind of bullshit RFK Jr. is slinging.  Yet he’s in charge of our health care and the agencies that once, but no longer are the gold standard in the world for health science. People that shouldn’t will get sick and even die because Trump put RFK Jr. in charge of our health. That’s a true tragedy.

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7 COMMENTS

  1. There’s another good example of the difference between causality and correlation. I can say that wearing brassieres causes breast cancer, because almost everyone who gets breast cancer has worn a bra.

    It’s obviously nonsense. There is no causal connection at all.

    In the same way as the nonsense Kennedy spouts.

    11
    • Bras are a relatively recent invention. But since you opened that particular door I’ll go you one better. Testicular cancer. Has there ever in human history been a guy who didn’t jerk off? Ergo male masturbation leads to testicular cancer!

  2. “in his zeal to reduce cases of autism, itself a laudable goal”

    Yeah, it is. Unfortunately, for advocates of those on the autism spectrum and the neurodivergent community, Kennedy’s zeal is motivated by his hatred or, at the very least, his intense dislike (some have described him as “afraid of”) of people with autism.

    10
    • I’d believe afraid of m. Which means his disdain for those on the autism spectrum is a form of prejudice, just like racism. He fits right in with the Republicans’ desire to have an all white society (except, of course, for J.D. Vance’s wife).

  3. “For others it’s because as I also noted earlier it can reduce the chances of bacterial growth in what for bacteria would be ideal conditions.”

    On this, there’s a much easier way of dealing with it: Teach the boys how to CLEAN under the foreskin. Circumcision is a very rare procedure in Europe and most of non-Islamic Asia and Africa (largely reserved for Jewish and Muslim communities as a religious practice) yet there don’t appear to be an inordinately high number of STIs in those areas compared to the US. (Yes, HIV is prevalent in Africa to the point of being nearly endemic in many areas and *some* studies made decades ago indicated circumcised males were less likely to transmit HIV compared to uncircumcised males although the studies failed to consider how the infected males contracted HIV in the first place as gay sex, at the time, was legally prohibited and could lead to ostracism as a “best case scenario.) But the main issue is that American parents have typically been pretty squeamish when discussing matters of sex and the “private parts” and teaching boys specifics about how to clean under the foreskin has been something that was just ignored.

  4. Thanks RFK Jr. Now I know the root of all the problems I’ve faced in 72+ years! The bastards lopped off the end of my penis without my permission…although I like the look. The USA…a land of passionate people who have no basic knowledge of the things they are passionate about. And, as Hunter S Thompson noted in one of his quirky takes, we are willing to kill you rather than admit our ignorance. Ahhh…the smell of fascism in the morning does stir the blood…preparing one for the onslaught of stupid shit that dominates our culture. To paraphrase a popular 70s song…clowns on the left of me…jokers to the right…stuck in the middle with you.

  5. wouldn’t it more likely be the local anesthetic that is presumably used far more frequently than tylenol? oh crap, now i’ve given him something else to go sfter.

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