One of the defining characteristics of President-elect Donald Trump’s first administration was the shocking lack of continuity throughout key positions in both the cabinet and within the White House. It didn’t matter if one was Secretary of Defense, Chief of Staff (It really didn’t matter there), Attorney General, or Press Secretary, the most powerful people around Trump rotated through like interns from college, most were fired, some retired to avoid eventually being fired, thus creating a revolving door first term. (Compare to Biden’s cabinet.) Trump is trying to avoid similar chaos with a second sitting in which he dines only with table-mannered true believers and loyalists – and yet it’s a recipe for disaster. He invited too many power-hungry guests that will surely end up eating each other in an attempt to win the mantle of MAGA-leader in a post-Trump world.
In nearly every other White House, proximity to the president is the coin of the realm – the most visible and pragmatic path to establishing one’s own power within the dynamic. It is no different in a Trump White House except for the fact that it happened to be that particular group – those closest to Trump, who found themselves closest to the door in the first go-round. See eg: “Chiefs of Staff” – almost by definition the closest staffer to any president. Thus it is that incoming folks who seek to wield the most power do so at their own risk with Trump and, more importantly, the risk of being kneecapped by a rival with temporary access to Trump’s ear. The problem is made that much worse by the fact that this administration is already somewhat of a lame duck with an aging president who cannot run again.
The whole Trump-ecosystem is now set to mirror the first because it’s stuffed with toxic folks ready to dump on others to clear a path to the very top. According to Politico’s Megan Messerly, the White House will soon become a “New York City Soap Opera” or perhaps a slasher Halloween episode of The West Wing. Rawstory drew from the article:Â
“The memories of Trump’s first term — and what happened when Cabinet officials tried to go against the president — should be fresh enough that incoming Cabinet officials are clear-eyed about what they’re getting into. Or have outsized hope that round two may be different from round one,” with the report noting that Elon Musk may already be pushing his luck by constantly being by Trump’s side.
“Most people figure out over time, the more time you spend with the president usually works to your disadvantage,”
Well – with this particular president, to be sure. Donald Trump’s volcanic nature has led to him yelling “You’re fired!” at the nearest guy when “the” guy is fired up about a burning new development. (See Chief of Staff, or National Security Advisers). And yet top advisors won’t become president someday by hiding in the back, hoping to make it through 2026. The dynamic will likely result in a twisted game of “Survivor.” Or just a regular old firing squad – though that may be too close to true to be funny:
“That sets up a potential for clashes, particularly as those within the Cabinet work to define themselves within the contours of Trump’s vision as they eye their own future political aspirations. [J.D.] Vance, Rubio, Doug Burgum, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik and Vivek Ramaswamy are all among the list of possible 2028 hopefuls.”
I would watch Kristi Noem, in particular – anyone willing to build a fake Mt. Rushmore with Trump’s mug joining the cliff is one willing to put you under to have your own monument built in memoriam. She is also a particularly good example of those who see themselves as the possible 2028 nominee. The same can probably be said for Rubio and Stefanik – looking for their Rushmore equivalent.
Yes, all this is somewhat inherent to any administration, but most start out in a first term (This is the second term even if coming in to replace an administration), and most administrations don’t come in with such ever-present fear of people getting axed in the first six months. It is a get someone fired or be fired White Hot House.
Donald Trump likes to tell people that he thrives in an “On the brink” environment, one in which people are coming and going, hectic, and scared. It is far more likely that his comfort in chaos is borne more out of an attention deficit slash dopamine rush thing. Throw all of that in to be made worse by someone who is fundamentally transactional in nature. The more transactional, the more likely to can the person responsible for the last deal. The quick trigger finger puts everyone on edge and results in a terrible situation in which there is little loyalty in and among the staff – after all, why go to bat for someone who may end up batted to the cheap seats in six weeks.
But it’s all about the future and Donald Trump appointed Rubio and Noem to positions currently headed up by Blinken and Mayorkas. The first two are lifelong pols with eyes on a much bigger prize while the latter always saw themselves as perfect for the current position. Staffers encountering a six to nine month life expectancy create a predator-prey, law of the jungle mentality in which only one or two survive – and there’s no Kushner around this time to punch on.
You may conclude, “Well, that was what happened in the first administration – the revolving door.” And, of course, that’s right. But Trump is specifically trying to remedy that problem by nominating only thoroughly-vetted loyalists. It may well not matter with this group, looking at a second term with no heir apparent. It already looks like a viper den and bodes poorly for getting much done – which is perfect for many Americans who would much rather see this flock do little more than flap around for four years.
God Bless:Â I can be reached at [email protected] and on “X” at @JasonMiciak and now follow me on Bluesky.Â
I would be one of those Stateside hoping to “see this flock do little more than flap around for four years.”
“It didn’t matter if one was Secretary of Defense, Chief of Staff (It really didn’t matter there), Attorney General, or Press Secretary, the most powerful people around Trump rotated through like interns from college, most were fired, some retired to avoid eventually being fired, thus creating a revolving door first term. (Compare to Biden’s cabinet.)”
Why just Biden’s cabinet? Trump’s first role-play as President was absolutely unique when it came to the revolving-door cabinet. I don’t recall any other President’s Cabinet having the kind of turnstile that existed in Trump’s cabinet. I went to Wiki and discovered that, of his whole cabinet, only 6 posts didn’t change through the entire term: Treasury; Agriculture; Commerce; Housing and Urban Development; Transportation; and Education. (Note that I’m only counting the “main” Cabinet positions. The full Cabinet also includes posts like US Ambassador to the UN, EPA Administrator, Director of OMB and the Chief of Staff.)
Obama did have a slight revolving door, but, other than Defense and Commerce, most cabinet posts only changed following his reelection in 2012. Five of his first-term cabinet members held over for a year or so of his second term: Attorney General; Health and Human Services; Housing and Urban Development; Education; and VA.
Dubya’s cabinet was also pretty calm. Most of his cabinet changed with the second term (I won’t say “re-election” since his first term came about through less-than-normal procedures) although a number of his cabinet members actually changed during the middle of the second term. Treasury changed in the middle of the first term and the middle of the second term; the AG, Agriculture and VA changed after Bush began his second term, then changed again in the middle of the second term; HUD changed in the middle of the first term then changed again in the middle of the second term; and Defense and Interior changed in the middle of the first term with the second guys holding on till the end of Dubya’s presidency (Dubya’s second Defense Secretary was held over by Obama).
Even Clinton’s cabinet largely managed to be stable through his two terms. Most of the cabinet changes happened after Clinton’s second inauguration although Treasury changed during the middle of his first term and then again in the middle of the second term and Clinton’s Defense Secretary changed during the middle of the first term and was replaced at the start of the second term. Commerce was the biggest revolving door with two guys in the first term and two in the second term and Energy and VA pretty much had just one person to serve through the first term and carried over into the second term before being replaced (with the VA, the second person resigned in the summer of 2000 so the Deputy became the Acting Secretary for the remainder of the term).
Now, it’s true that the Biden cabinet has been incredibly stable although both Labor and HUD currently have Acting heads. It should be noted that the Acting Secretary of Labor was tapped to become the new Secretary but the nomination’s been held up since March of 2023.
The Trump Cabinet Circular Firing Squadâ„¢