I wrote yesterday that the world was far closer to war than any of us realized or are prepared to admit Today, amidst new threats, hurried meetings, and warnings to citizens, we’re even closer. It would seem that the election has concentrated the minds of all players in the Russian-Ukrainian war such that Ukraine, the U.K. EU, NATO, and the United States all see this as a last stand, while Russia must feel threatened. After all, little else explains why Putin would unleash his most secret and very costly new hypersonic missile. Putin delivered a firm message going forward after launching the missile as reported by the British Sun:

In his televised speech, Putin said Russia had launched a new kind of hypersonic ballistic missile dubbed “Oreshnik” in response to Ukraine’s strikes in Russia’s Kursk region.

The new missile cannot be shot down by any ground-based system (Known) and represents a major escalation. As seen here:

And below one can see what the horror looks like from on the ground. Imagine seeing this coming down on your city:

Meanwhile, Putin held a secret middle-of-the-night meeting and sent out a warning to U.S. and U.K. bases, particularly the new American-Polish base in Eastern Europe. From Politico:

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said a United States anti-missile base in Redzikowo, Poland “is a priority target for potential neutralization.”

Per Putin”

 “Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against military facilities of countries that permit the use of their weapons against Russia.

If you think that the world hasn’t taken notice of the extremely dark turn, you’re like all of us, far too caught up in domestic politics to even notice. From The Sun’s report:

Finland, which borders Russia to its east, has ramped up national security by publishing advice for citizens to prepare “for incidents and crises”.

Nordic citizens were also told to prepare for war and handed chilling survival guides.

And Germany’s World War Three preparation plans were also revealed in a 1,000-page secret document.

We should be paying attention because this all came about quickly within three weeks of the election and it seems as though forces are at work to ensure that the matter is definitely “ongoing” before any new American administration. Time is thus of the essence. And if anything is going to happen it will happen sooner rather than later. All of that is also dependent on the presumption that Donald Trump wants to keep his isolationist tendencies, something that Russia may be counting on and the E.U. may be hoping to make irrelevant by acting fast now.

The United Kingdom pronounced itself ready for war (to quote the Defence Ministry), if only reluctantly, according to The Sun. The U.K. also made a point to say that only Vladimir Putin could pull the world back from the brink.

Russia launched its new missile in response to the U.S. allowing Ukraine to use US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike deep inside Russia for the first time. The Ukrainians also used British-made “Storm Shadow” missiles. The strike well beyond the Ukraine-Russian border might well be what is putting Putin back on his feet and feeling vulnerable.

It is telling that the U.S. and U.K. allowed Ukraine to use far more aggressive missiles now and they had to do so knowing that Russia would respond, as per usual, with what most would consider an overreaction. It seems obvious that all sides are operating out of fear of the unknown and resolve to settle as much as possible with new aggression now, probably figuring that if they don’t act quickly someone else will. It is possible that Russia is thrown so far on its back that it has to resort to threats of a direct strike on American defenses.

It is all a terrifying mess – obviously. As I noted yesterday, it’s unlikely that anyone wants a new widespread war, though Russia is certainly pushing this closer and closer. And yet we’re in more danger that a war could start by accident or simply circumstances getting wholly out of control. Would Putin attack the new American missile system in Poland right now betting on a weakened lame duck president and a NATO that doesn’t have a certain future? If he was ever going to attack it would seem to be in the near future – or at least provoke. Finland and the Baltic nations seem to be operating on that premise.

I wrote about this yesterday and just a day later we’re actually much closer, not pulling back, to broader war in Europe. It is just chilling. So few know, even fewer want to be in this position. But it would seem that the only way out is for Putin to pull himself back. Which probably explains why we’re closer today than yesterday.

God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and on Blue Sky, a new favorite. 

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Don’t forget, The USA is only 14% – 15% of NATO. The other 85% or so is the other countries, The USA is important, but only at about the same level as Britain, France, or Germany EACH contribute. They, and Canada and the other members are wealthy, they can cover it – and in doing so, stop buying armaments from an untrustworthy partner, (Bad news for US defense contractors like Boeing or Lockheed Martin.)

    And after Trump unilaterally undermined the whole NATO operation in Afghanistan there is zero patience for giving him any leeway. The worst that can happen is being planned for and expected. Why would anyone in NATO act otherwise?

    Due ENTIRELY to his own incompetence and selfish laziness he turned the Afghan withdrawal into a huge military disaster by not discussing anything with any of his country’s allies in the alliance, (in an operation that’s entire existence was due to the US calling for assistance after 9/11). Worse, he cost lives of those NATO members forces.

    Just putting Trump in has killed the effectiveness of NATO. The USA is now perceived in Europe as a bunch of lazy selfish takers, quick to demand help and slow to give it. Biden’s last minute assistance is warmly welcomed but after he’s gone NATO is over, America can’t even be trusted with any of the intelligence reporting or planning, they know it will be leaked to the Russians by Trump himself.

    America has elected in a Russian stooge who doesn’t want NATO, after what they’ve seen before, NATO will be happy to oblige him.

    15
    • A clarification: I state that “NATO is over’, I really meant to say NATO with America in it is over.
      NATO without America remains a powerful military force, by far the strongest in Europe.

  2. I guess if there’s a silver lining…they learned what Trump was all about the first time. There’s a reason it’s hard to run a play in any sport over and over. Surprise is lost.

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