I’ve paid more attention to polls than I should have. Or frankly was good for me. For all my talk about how news outlets shape coverage EVERY time to create a ‘down-to-the-wire horse-race’ so close it’s within the margin of error polling, at least from reputable outlets could give us a fairly consistent picture as multiple outlets would have similar results. That’s not the case anymore, for a number of reasons. I’ll spare you a deep dive into all that because what matters is that the polling results you see/hear in the news are all over the place. Pick an outcome and you can find a poll, even from an “old school” respected site that will confirm it. Many people looking online for news never read past the headlines. However there IS another indicator that’s more reliable than I think people realize. Candidate’s Body Language.
It might surprise many of you to learn that Body Language Analysis is an actual science. Most assume it’s more of an art, especially since the average person is quite capable of making accurate observations about whether say a spouse or partner is happy or mad. Or someone at work. Often it’s blatantly obvious. Reading people who are skilled at controlling their emotions is somewhat more challenging but again, through formal training (I did say it’s an actual science) and/or experience people can get awfully good at it. Try as they might some people who are skilled at coming across one way can be identified as hiding how they truly feel. Of course some people wear their emotions on their sleeve much, if not most of the time.
That brings me to the 2024 Presidential election and polling. There are actually two types of polling. One, the stuff I’ve referred to and that gets all the attention in news stories is the stuff that’s been going on my entire life. Some organization creates a set of topics they want to look into, creates a sample and sets people about contacting enough people in the various categories of voters (i.e. male or female, age, voter registration, voting history etc.) and once they’ve hit the marks turn the data over to the number crunchers. You know the types of questions that get asked.
Campaigns however, and especially Presidential campaigns have the resources (often greater than major polling outlets) to do their own internal polling. Sure, they ask a lot of the same questions but they ask things the regular pollsters your read about don’t. They are also on a more granular and localized level and often get better data. Campaigns don’t ignore the polling you and I read, but they put a LOT more trust in their own internal polling and usually are right to do so. However they guard that information closely. Even when some general characterizations come out they never, ever provide all the data reputable outlets do about samples, questions, etc.
So what the campaigns know and what the pollsters we see/hear about in the news know can be two quite different things. I think there’s a better than even chance that’s what’s been going on and for a while now. I also think in the past week or perhaps two it’s become apparent. The Harris campaign doesn’t think she’s a lock but DOES think she’s in a good position. On the other side the Trump campaign thinks there’s a good chance there’s going to be a bad moon rising on election night. And a week later on Nov. 15th when the full moon rises it will be focused solely on President-Elect Kamala Harris.
I base this on body language. Think back, or if you have the time go back and look at clips of the two of them walking out onstage at events. Their demeanor and speaking style and tone. Their facial expressions. Hand gestures. Harris is clearly in her element. Comfortable. Confident. In command of herself and her campaign and able to articulate her vision for this country easily and coherently. Trump on the other hand either drags himself out or when feeling up to it stalks to the podium. He has to lean on it for support. But he’s sullen. He’s often angry. Or defensive. His facial expressions and gestures are those of a person who is pissed off if not scared.
I believe the reason for the contrast is because both candidates know from their respective campaign’s own internal polling what the polling outlets we see in the news don’t. As I wrote earlier today this isn’t over. And it won’t turn out the way we want and hope unless we keep pushing until the last polling stations have seen the last voters in line cast their votes out west on election night. Still, it’s apparent that Harris is looking at HER internals and since she can trust what various people in the GOTV are telling her she’s in a good position. Meanwhile Trump is being told something HE doesn’t want to be hearing. Even his new pal and sugar daddy Musk might be kinda, sorta admitting that the turnout operation isn’t going as well as hoped. Hence the sullen (more than usual) Trump we’ve been seeing.
Now, don’t go getting cocky the way Romney did back in 2012. He was so SURE his “ORCA” app for getting out the GOP vote on election day. It turned out to be a bust. It’s not a perfect comparison because ORCA was crafted in haste and never properly tested. Nor were the 30k strong team of GOTV people trained on it. Thousands found themselves only receiving it to load on to their phone and with the instructions on using it the night before the election. They had to print out some 60 pages of instructions too!
Harris however inherited a robust field operation that had hundreds of field offices scattered around the country and a professional staff training up a huge army of volunteers. It was all up and running (and well) back during the primaries, long before Biden stepped aside. It also had plenty of funding even then. Then Harris took over and not only the number of new donors (and money) go through the roof within a couple of weeks she had 200k fresh new volunteers. AND an apparatus in place to train them and then deploy them by the time the campaign kicked off in earnest after Labor Day.
So yes, I’d say despite what the polls you see and hear about in the news are saying it seems each campaign’s internal polls are painting a picture. One that Harris enjoys looking at and one that Trump HATES having to look at. And it’s been showing pretty clearly lately if you’ve been paying attention to their Body Language!
So let’s run through the tape, play till the whistle/horn or whatever. If you haven’t voted then make sure to do so. If you have then every chance you get encourage others to do so. Your local Democratic Party will be happy to provide you a list of names to call or text to ask them if they’ve voted and ask them to do so if they haven’t. Our work isn’t done. But clearly there’s reason to believe from what I’ve described if we follow through on Harris (and other Democrats) behalf we will be feeling okay next week.
And the there’s the facts.
Since he last won an election through the Electoral College, (and losing the popular vote), he’s been impeached twice, lost an election, been convicted of 34 felonies, lost a sexual assault case and ordered to pay what, by now, is about 1/2 a billion dollars, with more criminal and civil cases pending, and a proven record of mendacity, incompetence and losing.
He knows no-one in their right mind will vote for him, and it’s eating him up.
It’ no wonder it shows in his movement.
Her rally has 75,000 screaming like they are at a rock concert, with thousands outside. He can’t fill a 3500 seat venue. Any sports addict can tell you there are two factors in every contest that can’t be measured but you know it when you see it…momentum and confidence. She has both. He has neither. Those are often the difference in winning and losing.
We can’t trust polling anymore – and haven’t been able to for over a decade now – so looking at body language is a smart alternative! Thank you for this take; it was practical and fascinating. An excellent read.