In politics people build whole reputations off getting one thing right (Nate Silver)
I have long taken polling with a grain of salt. How big depends. Going back to 2000 that industry underwent something of a crisis of confidence even though in retrospect they actually got things pretty close. A screwed up ballot design in a major Florida county and some other shenanigans in the state however made it seem like pollsters had really screwed the pooch. All kind of reasons were offered, and earnest work began on developing more accurate models. By 2008 there was a new kid on the block by the name of Nate Silver. A statistician he created a new model for aggregating various polls and damned if he didn’t predict Obama’s win and margins (not to mention other races) better than anyone else. That was then, and a lot has gone on with Nate Silver since.
He’s no longer the golden boy in most circles but the average person, folks who aren’t political junkies like me hear or read the name Nate Silver and think ‘The 538 guy. He’s really something. I should pay attention to what HE has to say about this or that race.’ The thing is, Silver isn’t part of the organization he’s known for creating. In fact, it doesn’t even exist anymore. It’s been re-created in a different form under a similar name but Silver has nothing to do with it. Nor is he still involved with other news organizations he joined with great fanfare. Looking back the beginning of his fall from ‘guru’ status came in 2016. Some said in effect ‘well, he didn’t get it as wrong as a lot of people did’ but that’s just rationalization.
From where I sit, and if one wishes to take the time to read his Wikipedia link (it’s a lengthy read) it sure seems that by then he was being looked at with a more critical eye, and organizations wondered if he was truly “all that” or perhaps closer to “one hit wonder” status. Multiple outlets have cut ties with him but Silver retains enough of a reputation to get backing to keep doing his thing. It’s where his current backing comes from that is starting to raise eyebrows. Alternet has a short article up that sure got my attention. Stick with me here. From the linked article:
On Sunday, September 8, polling expert and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver updated his presidential election forecast and gave GOP nominee Donald Trump a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in November and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris only a 36 percent chance.
Well, on the surface that sure doesn’t look good. And the thing is as I’ve mentioned with the average voter who doesn’t dig into details of things every day the way political junkies like me (and maybe you?) do that carries weight. It strengthens people’s impressions of Trump and perhaps even makes them skip over stories that are finally sometimes giving Trump the kind of scrutiny he should have gotten all along. In some voter’s, people who have all they can handle getting through each week dealing with work and family and whatnot it makes Trump’s ‘fake news’ claims more credible if over sixty percent of people are going for Trump. That is I believe a reasonable interpretation. If you disagree I’m sure you’ll let me know in the comments section.
The point is that while you or I might know Silver has proven NOT to be the master prognosticator backed up by solid gold date he was widely perceived to be fifteen, or even ten years ago to the average person he still is. That matters. However, there’s something else that matters, as in just WHO is paying Silver these days. Conservative (and Never Trumper) consultant Stuart Stevens is critical of Silver’s assessment, and cites the financial connection with billionaire Trump supporter Peter Theil. The same guy who’s been J.D. Vance sugar daddy:
In a September 10 post on X, formerly Twitter, Stevens wrote, “Polymarket is Peter Thiel’s creation. @NateSilver538 is being paid by Peter Thiel.”
In May, Forbes reported that “controversial billionaire political donor Peter Thiel and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin” had “raised about $70 million in funding for Polymarket.”
According to Axios’ Sara Fischer, the predictions market platform Polymarket hired Silver as an adviser in July.
I for one find it hard to resist playing connect the dots. I’ll add in one more. Silver is a smart guy and everyone in his business knows it. However it became apparent some years back he wasn’t head and shoulders above everyone else. He kept tinkering and creating new models for aggregate polling reporting but frankly didn’t stand out from the crowd. That’s why I think various major outlets decided he wasn’t worth the money he was being paid and cut him loose. But again, the average American doesn’t KNOW that.
Now? I don’t think it’s at all unfair to question Silver’s objectivity. Maybe he’s hoping for a prominent and well-paid gig with Rasmussen, a polling outlet known for skewing conservative and publishing outlier polls. Who knows? What I do know is that since Silver has a financial link to Peter Theil nothing, and I mean nothing he says at this point should be taken at face value. So, if you hear someone saying ‘Nate Silver says Harris is going to lose to Trump so what’s the point?’ tell them who is paying Nate Silver these days!
Nate Silver was once golden (pun intended) but unlike gold, actual silver tarnishes and over time Silver did. Attempts to polish himself back to a shine failed. From where I sit he’s decided screw it – just cash in on that early reputation I got myself. That’s what makes the quote I started with so ironic. Silver became famous and even respected for something he got right long, long ago. He had a short run of success and ever since has, in actual results been at best a face in the crowd who’s managed to pass himself off as something more. Over time however major outlets took a hard look at the numbers, both his and how much they were paying him to provide his numbers and decided he wasn’t worth his asking price.
As a result, Sliver has sold his reputation to Peter Theil to pump up Donald Trump and at the same time trash Harris. Those dots I mentioned are awfully big and to me at least stand out like neon. I just wanted to try and let others know because most of this week is going to be about the debate. But we’ll also hear a LOT of talk about how and how much the debate will move the polls. I suggest you head down into a salt mine if you want to read what Nate Silver has to say. (Just make sure Peter Theil doesn’t own it or is friends with the company who does!)
silver actually said Trump has a little over 60% chance of winning the electoral college, not 60% of the votes. also, he did get 2016 right, he just didn’t get there till a week before the election. again, he said Trump would win the electoral college, not the overall votes and he predicted where the votes to put him over would come from and he got that right. just saying.
Another money whore. Anytime I see a man with a combover that hideous, I know I’m looking at an insecure person. Money attracts women, attention, gravitas, etc. No wonder he sold out. Smart? Depends on how you measure it and how you define it. Evidently not smart enough to realize he looks like a clown in the photo you posted. Anyone who claims to KNOW what the future holds is a liar. Might as well go to an astrology ‘expert’ to read your horoscope.
Nate Silver and his “polling”are as full of cai cai as a Christmas goose…….and now we know why.
……and remember the old adage concerning him and the like……never trust a man you meet with a comb over……he’s already trying to hide something from you.
*nods*
The only polls that count when it all comes down to it are the exit polls and quite frankly, I’m not saying some of the folks polled then aren’t lying. Now that we know who silver prostituted himself to, we can write off his bullshit as just that, bullshit. He might just as well have taken money for polling directly from von shitzinpants. He damned sure lost any credibility, and he didn’t have much, he had with this fool decision.
what a whore.