This is going to be the last straw for Trumpty Dumpty, I’m willing to bet some solid cash on that. It was anticipated that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s departure from the presidential race was going to matter greatly to the Trump campaign. Maybe some magic will appear at some point down the line but the first pollster to report is Nate Silver. And when somebody reads Trump the first analytical paragraph of Silver’s report, get ready for an explosion.
There are a couple of essential things to note here. First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points.1 And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For now, there’s pretty much no change in the topline numbers — Harris is at around 53 percent to win the Electoral College, the same as in recent days. For paid subscribers — this is about to get a little wonky — here’s more about what the model is doing and why Harris hasn’t declined at all in our forecast.
I may buy a subscription to Silver at some point but for right now, if Harris is polling at 53%, I am more than a little satisfied. Polls are only a snapshot in time and it’s fully expected that Harris’s numbers will be higher this week as the result of a post-convention bounce. Trump, on the other hand, now has nothing to increase his numbers.
Or, some other polling company, probably Rasmussen that Trump loves so much, may find a big bounce. And let Trump concern himself with polls. If there is one lesson we all collectively learned in 2016 it was not to be a slave to polls — unless you want to know what ice water in your face feels like on election night.
Bottom line, RFK, Jr. is irrelevant. Always has been. He got into the race as a spoiler for Trump, probably at the behest of Steve Bannon, and even that flopped. He needs to go play golf or whatever diversion he enjoys and stay out of politics. And if Trump had a lick of sense, that would have been the path that he chose as well.
But it will be amusing seeing future polls trickle in, as they will for at least a week or two until measuring RFK Jr.’s importance dwindles in importance and fades away altogether — although I suppose it’s possible Trump could use RFK Jr. to replace Vance. That would be a howler.
I wonder who can tolerate RFKJr.’s voice for more than 30 seconds? If I held secrets, and was forced to listen to him on a loop in my cell, I’d hang myself. Can’t see Trump ditching huckleberry boy for him. That leaves faux hillbilly billionaire, who couldn’t call Dominoes to order pizza without the order taker hanging up and asking his/her coworkers, ‘who was that asshole’? Meanwhile as Kamala and Tim gather stream Trump will be sitting in court getting some karma served up cold as a dead herring. As her numbers rise, he’s secretly calling around to see which dictator will shelter him when he runs. Let’s not forget, this really isn’t about being president…he hates to be responsible for anything. It’s about him lying await at night wondering if he’s going to jail. He’s a cornered rat looking for the way out of the labyrinth he’s created. Irony? He built a wall…around himself. Everyday he sees another brick being laid.
Scott, for Trump it may not be about becoming president again, but it sure as hell is for the MAGAt GOP. Trump’s their current champion, but they know full well he’s on limited time, at his age, and with his physical & mental deterioration. But if they can get him the presidency, by foul means of course, then they can instigate Project 2025 and hold power regardless of who their chosen occupant of the White House is. When Trump croaks, they’ll be able to replace him with someone smarter and less toxic, to lull the masses, while they manipulate the power from behind the curtain forever.
We’ve had to tolerate von shitzinpants’ voice for over a decade. I think we have raised our upper level irritation limit. I’d think we could tolerate anything at this point and yet I can still hear asinine statements from trump, vance, etc. and start grinding my teeth like a maniac. lmao
Brilliant
Patrick Fitzgerald is a true blessing.
Let’s wait & see in Georgia