We, as Democrats, are giddy right now over how Kamala Harris has galvanized this election cycle. She’s come out of the gate simply blazing and we are glad. It’s a wonderful thing to behold. But, make no mistake: the Republicans see this, too. They are a desperate and demoralized lot these days, as clearly evidenced by the freak show that they’re running for president and vice president of this country. Between the two of them, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have about “five and a half years of service, and it’s not public service, it’s self service,” to quote Gretchen Whitmer.
The polls have shifted, as you have seen, but this doesn’t seem to bother Trump all that much. Denial? Maybe. Or maybe it’s something considerably more sinister. I read an article in Rolling Stone recently which was very sobering. Stephen Richer, the County Recorder of Maricopa County, Arizona, lost the recent Republican primary. This is not only a warning flag, it is a bombshell. Richer is one of the old school Republicans who does it by the book, and we’re not talking about the MAGA book. The fact that he’s out of the mix is ominous indeed, with Arizona being a crucial swing state. And it’s not just Arizona, other swing states have MAGA election-deniers in place in election positions. That’s the focus of Maddow’s piece from a few days back.
Donald Trump is not a smart man. But unlike Forrest Gump, who was also not a smart man, he believes that he is smart. The fact that he keeps dropping this same line into conversation all the time, “I don’t need your vote,” is one of two things: 1. Unmitigated hubris, or 2. He’s got a plan cooking and he believes that the election will not be determined by the voters, because he’s found a way to steal it.
Here’s the article Maddow is referencing and it will curl your hair:
When election night comes in November, it will be up to thousands of local election officials to certify election results in their counties. Among those election officials are scores of Donald Trump supporters who believe his lies and conspiracies about stolen elections — and will be in prime position to act on those beliefs to try to aid his campaign in November.
In the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Rolling Stone and American Doom identified nearly 70 pro-Trump election conspiracists currently working as county election officials who have questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results. At least 20 of these county election officials have refused or delayed certification in recent years.
Certification of election results is what legal experts consider a “ministerial task,” and one required by state and local law. But as Trump’s lies about the 2020 election have taken hold, Republicans nationwide have decided that certification provides them an opportunity to hear fraud allegations — and refuse to officially count their local votes. Republicans have refused to certify election results at least 25 times since Trump lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.
I call your attention once again to David Frum’s comment from 2018, which was considered provocative at the time but which is now merely stating the obvious. Frum said, “If conservatives become convinced that they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy.” MAGA is dedicated to exactly that proposition, of rejecting democracy and installing their charismatic cult leader, Donald Trump, as king. So to hell with my vote, your vote, the vote. If the election deniers can swing it, Trump will be the next president whether he wins the election or not. That is the lay of the land in the last month of summer, 2024.
Polls indicate that the race between Trump and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will be close. If employed on a large scale, the certification refusal movement would have disastrous consequences, fueling the fire of election conspiracies and delaying the tallying of votes crucial to determining the next president.
And put this in a larger context. The lasting damage that Trump has done to our democracy is precisely this, this sowing of the seeds of doubt regarding free and fair elections, the cornerstone of our democracy. We saw the madness in 2020 and if the election denying MAGAs have their way, they will make 2024 an even wilder display.
“I don’t trust the runoff,” Larry Brown, an election official in Pickens County, Georgia, who has posted prolifically about his belief in Trump’s election lies, said two weeks after the 2020 election, as Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock faced Republican Kelly Loeffler in a runoff. “The general election has turned in to a mess (sic).”
In Pennsylvania, Erie County commissioner Charlie Bayle — whose role includes overseeing elections with fellow commission members — is one of 19 election deniers throughout the state with power over elections. “Anyone in this country with an ounce of common sense knows the left cheated to some extent,” Bayle wrote in November 2021. “Their philosophy isn’t about making it easier to vote, just easier to manipulate the vote.”
Days after the 2020 election, Walter Nowosad, a commissioner in Douglas County, Nevada, shared an article in which disgraced Trump lawyer Sidney Powell (falsely) claimed that Trump’s legal team had found evidence of voter fraud that could overturn the election results in multiple states. “Someone’s hand has been discovered in the cookie jar,” wrote Nowosad. Another Douglas County commissioner, Danny Tarkanian, wrote in November 2022 that mail-in ballots are “the biggest issue in our election integrity, along with ballot harvesting. This is what the GOP should be questioning.”
Nineteen states have varying levels of local election administration, with county election officials numbering in the thousands. Rolling Stone and American Doom focused on the pivotal counties in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Elias, the Democratic election lawyer, believes the findings in this investigation only represent “the tip of the iceberg,” because Republicans “are counting on not just that they can disrupt the election in big counties, they are counting on the fact that if they don’t certify in several small counties, you cannot certify these statewide results.”
THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO on Election Night 2024 recently played out in Washoe County, Nevada, where a moderate Republican fought to prevent the county commission, which oversees elections, from becoming majority-election denier. Events there in recent months show the chaos that could result from the certification refusal movement in November.
On June 11, Republican Clara Andriola, who was expelled from her local party for not towing the line on election denialism, faced off against Mark Lawson, a former firefighter who was fired for possession and distribution of steroids and who has questioned the results of the 2020 election. Andriola won, but local Republicans cited problems with mail-in ballots — and a bizarre claim about someone in a vote-counting room with a thumb drive — as evidence of fraud. On June 21, Washoe County commissioners Michael Clark and Jeanne Herman, both Republicans, voted against certifying the results of the primary. Andriola voted with the commission’s two Democrats to certify results, which showed her beating Lawson by 1,725 votes.
Conventional wisdom tells us that football is a game won in inches. So is politics, so much of the time. We saw this dramatically in 2016. And there was election interference of the highest caliber in that contest, but not on the back end, election certification, rather on the front end with Russian bots posing as the neighbors and trashing Hillary. We were far better off with the bots pretending to be Americans, than we are with MAGAs who truly believe that Trump won in 2020.
This debacle played out quietly, mostly in the local press, and held up the certification of Andriola’s win and that of a school board candidate. It took a month to certify the results, which only came after Nevada’s secretary of state and attorney general asked the state Supreme Court to qualify certification as a required duty of county commissions like the one in Washoe.
Counties like Washoe, where Biden won by 4.5 points in 2020, will be crucial to determining the outcome in Nevada this year — and even the presidential election. Delays or refusals to certify results would hold up statewide certification and vote tallies, and potentially the results of the presidential election itself.
Pro-Trump election deniers are working as local election officials in at least 16 pivot counties across the six key battleground states. They include small, rural outposts like Bay, Clinton, Isabella, Macomb, and Muskegon counties in Michigan, which have flipped between Democrats and Republicans in elections going back to 2008. The election denier officials there have flown under the radar. Rolling Stone and American Doom found them by searching their social media profiles, primarily Facebook, to ascertain their views.
And that’s what they have found. Hit the link and read this Rolling Stone article in full. We need to be fully prepared for this. We were not sufficiently prepared for January 6 although it was a very foreseeable event. Michael Cohen stated, when he was testifying before Congress the previous fall, that if Trump lost the election he would not leave. There were other people who predicted the same thing. On Election Night, when the results were in fact up in the air, Trump went into the ballroom and declared himself the winner at the behest of an inebriated Rudy Giuliani. That, right there, was Trump’s declaration of his intention to hang onto the presidency, whether he had lost it or not.
We might see a similar situation this year. Maybe Trump will demand that the troops attack Washington, again, although I daresay that we will be prepared this time. At least I hope we don’t see a repeat of our senators and House members donning gasmasks and hiding under the furniture. I hope we don’t see our vice president racing through the tunnels under the White House. And there will be an issue with a vice president who certifies an election making her the new president, in Trump world. That’s just the kind of a situation that the ignoramuses simply can’t wrap their head around.
We need to start paying attention to this now. And we need to keep election deniers out of our election process, period.
Rachael’s show Saturday night was a replay of last Monday’s show.
As far as election deniers not certifying results, Mark Elias has since reported:
…but here’s the bottom line excerpt:
“Each state has specific statutes that outline a process to follow if a local official won’t certify an election.”
I am worried less about election certification than I am about these magat election officials just throwing away boxes of votes because they know who will win, freely and fairly: V.P. Harris. The only way the magats win is by cheating. They did it in ’16, tried in ’20, and now have people in place to make sure votes just don’t get counted.
There is, at this point, only one thing left for those concerned about our freedoms to do, well, pretty much anything at this point, to do: after voting, stay by your polling place. If you vote by mail, show up after the polls close. Don’t protest, don’t threaten, just gather around the place where votes are counted. Be menacing without actually menacing those inside. Make them very certain that if they do not count every fucking vote legally cast, their lives are not worth a plugged nickle when it comes time for them to leave the building. If you want to be armed go ahead but that comes with a great deal of baggage that can be used against you. Just stand there, big, big crowd surrounding the entire building many people deep. Make them damned certain if they try any shenanigans, they are food for worms.
Just stand there quietly folks. Look like you will eat them for lunch. I think violent uprising is asinine. Quiet civil protest however might be absolutely necessary.
If nazis steal the election overthrowing our democracy, I wonder what the patriots in this country will do? I wonder if someone will dox these asshole nazis, and, then start to make these assholes personally pay? They break the rules then run to the remaining rules to legitimize their crimes. Let’s hope some sharp people in the right places STOP THESE NAZI BASTARDS. Or, as the sargent in Shooter heard in his hearing with the attorney General, when the killers walked: son, I don’t like they way this turned out any better than you do, but this isn’t the old west where you can clean up the streets with a gun, although that is exactly what is needed. These phuckers operate breaking the law but expect the law to protect them when they do. If they feared retribution, I seriously doubt they’d be laughing in the back room. They’d be awake at night wondering if a molotov cocktail will be throw into their bedroom window. Serial killers have already proven, with enough planning, a killer can pick off individuals for a long time without being caught. Hey nazis better plan on a real revolution once you give this fascist power. Thanks for the 400 million guns making it VERY easy to get ahold of an untraceable weapon. Hitler lied and said the Reich would last 1000 years. You’re in for a surprise if you think you can destroy this democracy without karma kicking your ass. Let’s hope plans are in place to stop this.
It will likely be up to us to stop them. Just how valuable are your freedoms to you? If they are very near and dear to your heart, you might have to step up. These people count on average americans to sit on their asses saying “oh, no, who’s going to help us” not on many of the citizenry to step up. They were counting on no resistance from average americans on J-6 which was the correct thing for them to think–it could have been much worse than it was had law enforcement not been mobilized in a big way.
We all hope President Biden has a plan should everything go sideways on election day and after. We had better be hoping his plan (s) is sufficient to take care of what will be happening across the nation and I don’t think it can. That’s when it is up to us to protect our nation, constitution, and all the rights we have come to believe we have–and they are very transient things if we don’t take care of them ourselves. Women across the country are seeing that transience right now. Much more is at stake.
Do you mean Ursula’s scenario doesn’t constitute a significan threat? If not, what are the key posts to trigger the problem?
As a follow up: can the clock be run out?
I’d spent some time today collecting some key facts to write about this verity topic. Trump’s not smart enough to have thought it up but The Federalist Society, Heritage Foundation and shadowy being the scenes task forces they’ve supported sure as hell have. It all boils down to what happens if no candidate gets the required 270 electoral votes when the various state’s certificated are opened and tallied on Jan. 6 after a Presidential election? The election is then thrown to the House of Representatives but here’s the catch: Each state’s delegation casts a single vote. Currently 27 state Congressional delegations are controlled by Republicans and due to machinations I won’t bore you with when the new Congress is sworn in that number will increase by 1 because NC will join the list. A couple of states have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans and my guess is that that will chance with one coming under our control and another under the GOP’s. A wash. Two or three other states are tossups and could swap Party affiliations but that too might wind up being a wash.
However absent some earth shaking changes with a truly overwhelming turnout in our favor the GOP will control the majority of state Congressional delegations, even in states like the one I live in (NC) with Democratic Governors and when one looks a Party registrations is pretty evenly split. Basically, it won’t matter if for example NC elects another Democrat (Josh Shapiro) to succeed Democrat Roy Cooper, or if Harris repeats Obama’s peformance in 2008 and carries the state. Thanks to gerrymandering our Congressional delegation will be solidly red again. And there is NO doubt they will say fuck the voters and cast NC’s vote for Trump! The same could happen in other states if the election goes to the House.
Even if Democrats have a solid majority overall!
That’s a truly terrifying thought. Harris could win the popular vote in more than one state but “lose” a state because the GOP has gerrymandered control of House districts. She could win the national popular vote by even more than Biden in 2020. Ten million, even twelve or fifteen million and it won’t matter jack shit. If enough states, even blue ones since they will have counties that are conservative) drag out their certification long enough then come Jan. 6 no one will get 270 electoral votes. That will mean the election goes to the House and that’s that.
The only good news in all this is that while conservatives didn’t go publishing a 900 page treatise (Project 2025) to let the masses know what’s planned with Trump back in the WH they did let enough slip that whatever name they’ve created for this (Green Bay Sweep II?) has been known for a while now to those who’s job it is to look out for this kind of stuff.
Part of what cost Joe Biden his spot at the top of the ticket was him counting on the REAL public campaign starting with the convention and the public at-large starting to focus hard on things. A LOT of money had been raised and spent – on “boring shit” like setting up field offices and properly staffing them so they could train an army of volunteers. A massive GOTV effort. Not sexy or cool but essential. However, we’ve been through enough elections starting in 2000 to also recognize the need to have LAWYERS out there ready to jump when the bullshit starts. We had a pretty good cadre back in 2000 which is why we kept handing Trump his nuts back in a paper sack in court case after court case. I could be wrong but now and then I could swear I’ve seen bits and pieces about what was the Biden/Harris campaign thinking bigger this year. Having MORE lawyers out there and prepared for a new set of legal stunts. I hope that’s true.
Make no mistake, Trump wants to win the popular vote and his ego will be crushed if he doesn’t. But he still has enough functioning brain cells to know what he did in both 2016 and 2020 which is that he might well lose. In 2020 he was actually pretty sure he would hence that multi-faceted plan to steal the election. If failed, and dark forces looked at why and came up with a new strategy. In the past week part of me has wondered if Project 2025, and even the selection of Vance was a huge misdirection to distract the public from the REAL action – this widespread plot to refuse to certify votes. It’s been going on since before this year I might add.
I just hope it becomes a BFD in the news so people at the local level can start raising hell with county election boards.
Americans might have to protect their own rights/freedoms or they will lose them all. This is not hyperbole-not this election cycle. This country could go up in flames this November (or January) and it won’t matter who won the popular vote or even who won the EC. If the magats/f.s. steal the election, and they have been planning this, as you say, for a long time, the only way to save our nation will be to attack them. It will become a war. It will also become game over so it probably doesn’t matter one way or the other.
Denis, we are fucked no matter how you look at it.
A minor quibble about your House of Representatives scenario. And one the “election deniers” obviously haven’t taken into account.
See, the people who will take part on January 6th, to certify the Presidential Election, will have been elected because of the November 5, 2024 election. The deniers CANNOT manage to both hold up results for the Presidential vote without ALSO holding up results of Congressional races.
There is NO Constitutional provision that allows a member of Congress to retain his or her seat if that member has not been DULY ELECTED (and that absolutely relies on “certification of election results”) after January the 2nd. Members of Congress are sworn in on January 3rd (or the closest business day). If a “denier” in a GOP district, for instance, decides to hold up certifying election results for his county, he can’t just say “issues with the Presidential vote” and hold up just the Presidential race, he’s also going to be forced to hold up certifying the votes for his GOP member of Congress who will NOT be allowed to participate in certifying the electoral count.
But, as I noted on another article, it’s time the states take action against these “officials” and remind them of their ONLY duty. If they have LEGITIMATE, VERIFIABLE issues with certifying results, they have to present those issues AT ONCE TO STATE OFFICIALS (preferably within no more than a week). ANY ELECTION OFFICIAL who turns out to have held up certification WITH NO LEGITIMATE REASON will then face possible jail time and a hefty fine for failure to do their duty.
You’ve pointed out a definite wrinkle BUT I have no doubt strategies have been gamed out for which states would refuse to certify results to leave the electoral vote count below 270 BUT have enough GOP delegations in place to give the election to Trump. It might or might not work. There might be some surprises but there will be plenty of time before the “Safe Harbor” deadline to figure out if they can make it work and if it looks like they can the COUNT on them to try. Remember, part of this is already in motion in states that are safely blue. AND the GOP advantage with all those red states that are relatively sparsely populated. I still say that while it might prove a heavy lift it’s more than theoretically possible for the GOP to pull this off. That’s why we have to be pre-emptive. And keep in mind we’ll get little, if any help from SCOTUS. Even before they declared their loyalty to Trump with their made up immmunity for Presidents ruling here in NC they refused to intervene. We got more fairly drawn maps after the 2020 census but our legislature is so heavily gerrymandered they fought it tooth and nail. The Cheri Beasly left out State Supreme Court to run for Senate and though deservging didn’t get the support she should have. She lost, and worse despite the efforts of some of us her replacement on the Court was a Republican so the legislature filed another lawsuit to redraw the Congressional maps back closer to what they were – wildly out of proportion and in the GOP’s favor. It made its way to SCOTUS who in effect said ‘Yeah, what they did is against the law and the state’s Constitution but it’s a state thing and not our problem.’ And that was THEN.
This isn’t a new initiative. It’s been in the works for years. I’m glad the old Biden/Harris campaign became aware it was an actual organized effort and began taking steps to try and counter it but it will be damned tough to do
WOw. Constitutional scholar Denis Eliot. I am REALLY impressed with your work on this. Even if you might have made any mistakes here that a Lawrence Tribe might correct, the sheer volume of work that went into these few paragraphs is BLOODY IMPRESSIVE. Thank you very much for sharing all this with us, Denis. Again, and for emphasis, great work!
Let’s not forget, it won’t be the first time that the will of the majority of voters will be ignored.
And it’s not just the electoral college, or Congress stepping in after a slow vote count. Its now twenty four years since Al Gore was denied the Presidency by a SCOTUS ruling on ‘hanging chads’. Imagine if Gore had prevailed. No 9 11, no Gulf Wars, meaningful progress on anthropogenic climate change, and who knows what else?
But this time it will be far worse.
David Frum was half right with his statement. It’s not that the republicans WILL reject democracy, it’s that they ALREADY HAVE rejected democracy.
Just look at all their gerrymandering as well as Trump’s acolytes shenanigans.
Not just now, but for the last three decades.
Enjoy these last months stating our positions, having our bitch sessions because next January we will not have access to this blog-hell, we might not even have access to the internet.
Hey Joe…if they cheat like they are planning…it would be a good time to honor this corrupt Supreme Court and exercise TOTAL IMMUNITY for official acts. If Kamala wins and they try to throw it away…bring out the troops, declare Kamala the legit winner, and arrest those phucking around with the votes. Then do something about those criminals in robes. I’ll ask one question: IF TRUMP WAS PRESIDENT AT THIS TIME WHAT THE HELL DO YOU THINK HE WOULD DO TO STOP THE DEMOCRATS FROM PULLING SOME SHIT???? I wonder why our side tries to play by the rules WHEN THEY HAVE ZERO INTENTION OF DOING THE SAME????