I’ll bet you that the screams that emanate from Mar-a-Lago when this finally gets seen by Fox News’ main viewer will be heard all the way to their corporate offices in New York. Or, maybe Donald Trump is in Bedminster this weekend, in which case you may be sure of it. Poor Fox News. At some point they do have to actually report facts and not just opinion. And they must be miserable gearing up for Election Day, 99 days from now. One thing I can say, I would not, I repeat not, want to be on the Decision Desk that night. A journalist named Chris Stirewalt worked for Fox News in 2020. He called Arizona for Biden and boy, did the shit hit the fan. Stirewalt found himself unemployed. The *why* of that was never explained, since he was doing what he was being paid to do, which was to call a state’s decision when it came in.
Yep. pic.twitter.com/1eKWX8afbi
— Victor L. Nickson (@VictorLNickson2) July 28, 2024
Polls are a snapshot in time. While the election is just on the horizon, three plus months is an eternity in politics. There will be October surprises, and likely some August and September surprises, too. But the current polls give a pretty good indicator of which states, dynamics, and issues will be important in determining a winner.
One potential disruptor on the horizon is Trump’s September sentencing date in the Manhattan falsification of business records case. These charges typically do not draw prison time for first time offenders — in fact, they are typically misdemeanors. But Judge Juan Merchan could theoretically sentence Trump to more than 130 years in prison (34 counts at a maximum of 4 years per count). The potential for this chaos seems to be off everyone’s radars for some reason, but could create both severe legal and political headaches for Trump.
Another potential disruptor centers around two foreign conflicts. Trump has some difficulty with the war in Ukraine, while Harris is walking a tightrope on the war in Gaza.
59% of respondents in the Times/SAY24 Poll sympathize with Ukraine, 27% with neither nation, and only 3% with Russia. Even among locked in Trump voters, considerably more sympathy resides with Ukraine (47% to 6% who side with Russia). Even so, a plurality of voters favor decreasing aid to Ukraine (34%), with only 21% voicing support for increased aid and 24% saying to keep it the same. 55% of Trump supporters want to decrease aid.
This presents a messaging tight wire for Trump. The majority of people think Russia is the big baddie. If he defends Putin, he puts himself out of touch even with his own voters. He can, though, make the case that it’s not our war to fight or fund.
But the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is taking a back seat in the American consciousness to the war in the Middle East. Sympathies between Israel and Gaza are more mixed and fairly partisan. Trump’s base overwhelmingly supports Israel. But Harris’ base is more divided, with 12% supporting Israel, 38% saying they support both equally, and 34% siding with the Palestinians.
This is all valid. But the overriding concern, I believe, this election is that Trump is so very much hated and Harris is a bright young face (as bright and young as any soon-to-be-60-year-old person can possibly be.) I take my hat off. Harris is showing people a new light and a new direction. So peruse all the data, take in all the opinions, but remember: people vote viscerally. And people are sick of Trump.
Harris has only been in the race seven days and it has been an amazing week.
And now, since you’ve read this far, here’s a bonus. This is Johnny Mathis singing, 99 Miles To L.A. It’s a delightful, romantic song and the only one I can think of to commemorate the fact that we’re 99 days from the most consequential election in American history.
Still too close for comfort. I’d feel a lot better with V.P. Harris getting at least 60% in these states and I don’t think that is going to happen.
Again, these are polls and polls have been doggy doo since 2016. I was lulled by a poll that told me daily that Hillary had an 85% to 95% chance of beating Trump. So I went comatose and worried about the down ballot, only and boy did I get a wakeup call.
We just need to win. If it’s by 77K votes in three states, amen and hallelujah.
Yeah, too many Trump supporters claiming to be for the other side and Failbook-sharing the poll questions meant to weed out the fakers. That’s why Hillary and Joe both ‘underperformed’ against the polls at election time.
(And yes, I know this happens, my mother BRAGGED about being one of Trump’s poll-fakers.)
Did she say why she did that? I’m curious.
The pressure on him will only increase from here. I’m sure he’s been told what happens to his trials if he loses. It’s hard to be king of a cult of armed stupid people. I wonder how loud the screaming gets if he runs from the debate with Kamala?
He HAS to debate Kamala. He can’t escape it. And then he’s going to be publicly disgraced. He’s having nightmares about it already, is my guess.
You indicate Harris looks as bright and young as anyone soon to be 60 can be. I wouldn’t say you’re wrong. However, I’ll say she looks, sounds and carries herself like someone 15-20 years younger. I look at myself now that I’m later sixties in comparison and say forget that. I can only wish I could have looked, sounded and carried myself as well as Harris back when I was only 59-60! I was never in my life as handsome as Harris is lovely but as for the rest, I’d have to go back twenty plus years to be in the same ballpark as her.
I’ll bet others see and hear her, watch her campaigning and think the same thing I do which is that she seems much more youthful and vibrant that her actual age. That makes Trump look even worse! This race is far from over. But I like where we are right now and feel we’re in a good position to gain enough steam to leave Trump lagging by the time voting starts. Maybe even pulling away and leaving him stuck on the tracks as we keep moving forward.
I meant it as a compliment. Do I need to go back and rewrite it?
Nah, I think it’s a great article. I just offered an opinion that Harris projects even more youth than being twenty years younger than Trump.
Everything is relative, and nothing more so than age. When I was carried away by the paramedics to go to the ER with my kidney stone, one of them said that I “didn’t like 70.” (I was in fact 71.) It was a sincere compliment. I thought it odd, because as bad as I felt, I was convinced I must look horrible. But the truth is, a lot of people have tons of wrinkles at this age, and I don’t.
Kamala looks great for any age and particularly for the age she is, let’s put it that way. She’s got the best of both worlds, the health and vitality of a younger person and the wisdom and experience of a woman her age.
Soon is going to be the time to start with getting the Senate and House contests to the voters, and doing the balancing act of “We need all three branches” against the cons saying “All we need is one of three branches to stop those communist socialist demonrats!” Plus they already “have” the SC. Will be fun to see what the President suggests for SC enhancements.
I hope and pray that we end up with a unified government. But if we just get the White House and one chamber of Congress, we’ll do okay.
I’m waiting for Judge Juan Merchan to put the hammer to Trump. He will appeal what sentence he gets for his 34 felonies, BUT he can’t appeal any sentence for his gag order violations. He can theoretically keep him on house arrest at the least for the rest of the campaign. That’s the least he can do for having the defendant send his MAGA’S to threaten his daughter.
And I was so looking for July 11 until the “immunity” BS hit.
“ONE POTENTIAL DISRUPTOR ON THE HORIZON IS TRUMP’S SEPTEMBER SENTENCING DATE IN THE MANHATTAN FALSIFICATION OF BUSINESS RECORDS CASE. THESE CHARGES TYPICALLY DO NOT DRAW PRISON TIME FOR FIRST TIME OFFENDERS — IN FACT, THEY ARE TYPICALLY MISDEMEANORS. BUT JUDGE JUAN MERCHAN COULD THEORETICALLY SENTENCE TRUMP TO MORE THAN 130 YEARS IN PRISON (34 COUNTS AT A MAXIMUM OF 4 YEARS PER COUNT).”
Not to forget the potential stings in the tail from sanctions for the contempts of court !!!!
What Merchan can do in theory and what he will do in fact are two different things. But even a lenient sentence, say 30 days or less, would destroy Trump if he had to serve it. And I’ll make book Melania won’t come to visit him in the House Of Many Doors.