This is always one of the most fun parts of the presidential election every four years. Playing Veepstakes. It usually goes on for several weeks, if not months, but this time the process will be truncated due to the Democrats self imposed deadline to have the ticket ready for the convention.
There are several philosophical reasons behind the selection of a Vice President, such as a partner that can help you to carry a swing state. In reality that seldom happens. The next most common reason is to shore up a deficiency in the presidential candidate, and history is replete with examples of that.
- In 1992 Bill Clinton was a small state Governor with no legislative chops. RN Senator Al Gore was a natural sherpa to guide him through the Senate process
- In 2000 George W Bush was a numbnuts Governor of texas with no federal experience. Dick Cheney seemed a natural, wily mentor to show Bush the ropes, until he told Bush to sit in the Oval Office and shut up while he ran a shadow government from the VP’s office
- In 2008, then candidate Barack Obama actually wanted then Virginia Governor Tim Kaine as his running mate, trying to turn VA blue. Then Putin invaded Georgia, and Senator Joe Biden was brought in to school Obama up on international relations
Right now the early media money is on Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and again it’s to try to correct a deficiency in the presidential candidate. Kelly has won back-to-back brutal statewide elections. By association as Biden’s wingman, Harris is weak on border policy, and Kelly broke with Biden and Harris on their border policy when he ran for reelection in 2022. They want his border chops to shore Harris up and bring home AZ in November.
It looks good on paper, and makes sense, but I don’t like it. For a few reasons. First, the major states bordering Mexico are Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. The Democrats are unlikely to win Texas no matter what Harris says about the border. New Mexico looks fairly safe, and California is in the bag, it’s the barrel that fish comes in.
Which leaves Arizona. Kelly is a safe pick. He’s not up for reelection this cycle, so he doesn’t have to abandon his seat to run. And if Kelly pairs with Harris and wins, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs will appoint a Democratic caretaker until the 2026 general election cycle.
So, what don’t I like about it? Here’s what. Right now Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego is running against serial MAGA wingnut and election denier Kari Lake. Most of the polling I’ve seen from AZ has Gallego up by 7-9 points. With that kind of a jetstream coming from the top of the statewide ticket, and with both Gallego and Hobbs firmly in her corner, as long as Harris doesn’t make a disastrous error, that combination, along with the Democratic grassroots enthusiasm should be more than enough to carry Arizona over the line in November.
So, who then? I’ll tell you who. Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina. Cooper is being turfed out in January as a surprisingly popular and effective two term Democratic Governor in a red state rapidly turning purple with the influx of younger professional college educated workers who trend solidly Democratic.
In 2020 President Biden lost North Carolina to Traitor Tot by the smallest margin since Barack Obama won the state in 2008. Trump’s popularity in North Carolina is waning, and the GOP has a truly toxic, reverse racist gubernatorial candidate that they can roast over an open fire in the campaign.
Cooper is affable, capable, and comes off authentic. He won back-to-back races in what was at the time a red state. And he has a solid record of accomplishments. If Harris should choose Roy Cooper, in my humble opinion she gives the Democrats a better than 50-50 chance of flipping North Carolina in November, giving Harris an electoral leg up.
There you have it. Nominating Jay Pritzker of Illinois moves no needles, Illinois is a no brainer. The same thing goes for Gavin Newsome in California. From where I’m sitting, only Roy Cooper offers the Democrats a chance to flip what could be a critical swing state from red to blue. What do you think?
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Calling AZ safe for V.P. Harris just because Gallego is ahead in the polls (basing anything on polls is never a safe bet) doesn’t change the fact AZ is full of crazy. Maybe not full of bat-shit crazy but still full of crazy.
NC is going back to full fledged crazy from my perspective given the legislature’s shenanigans. Which state has more E.C. votes? Between those two that’d be the numbers I’d be looking at–they’re the only ones that matter.
I wrote a bit the other day about not overlooking Cooper who happens to be my Gov. Everything you’ve pointed out I agree with. I’d also add that with such a large military presence in NC Cooper has national security chops too. But your comments about Biden being chosen to shore up Obama on foreign policy got me thinking. Obama did actually work with GOP Senator Lugar from IN on a major effort to curb nuclear proliferation. Lugar was full of praise for his young colleague and how quickly he mastered such complex material and worked with foreign counterparts. Still you’re correct. It was reassuring as hell to countlesss voters that an old hand like Biden would be just who Obama needed.
What’s just occurred to me is Biden was a buffer in another crucial area. Obama had gotten past the Rev. Wright crisis but you know damn well that while McCain and his campaign wouldn’t take part in it or want supporters to do it that that whole shit show was going to get played up again. The ‘radical young black dude’ and with Joe Biden at his side that got made a whole lot tougher. It someone as well known as Biden, who from the get-go had a clear rapport and chemistry with Obama was vouching for him that wasn’t going to play well.
You know all kinds of stuff will be thrown at Harris including ‘radical crazy black woman’ and Cooper who was all in for Biden and already knows Harris well too since she’s been here multiple times is standing with her, his reassuring, low key older white guy image will take a lot of wind out of those particular sails. I don’t know what kind of rapport they have in private but if there’s genuine mutual respect then it’s likely to show in public. That might in the end make the difference. White guys aren’t voting for a black woman any more than they did for Hillary. As always the GOP will carry that demographic. However Cooper would quite possibly limit the gap to bad instead of disastrous. And it will reassure everyone else when the attacks come.
Well, we’ll know soon enough. And who knows? There might be someone else out there no one has thought of. In the meantime I’m with you – Cooper seems like the best person to name VP.
I suggested Cooper in your previous veepstakes post. gives an East coast west coast bonus.also let’s face it, Harris needs a white male candidate with her. Cooper is a cool customer from a swing state.
My money is on Kelly. He is a veteran,,a retired astronaut,and a voice against the gun lobby. He is also white and male and from the West,,and will.appeal to.the mushy middle centrists.
Do I want it to be him? Not really. I am much more left than he is. But mostly I want electavility, and if he can provide that,,I’ll take it.