Now that the GOP primary race has narrowed to two candidates, Trump and Haley the question ever since the night of the New Hampshire primary has been how long the latter will stay in the race. In her striking speech not long after the polls closed Haley made clear she intends to continue and has followed through. It takes resources, both money and organizational to mount a credible Presidential campaign It looks like, for the time being at least Haley will have both. The Koch Network through it’s political operation Americans For Prosperity (AFP) will continue providing money and logistical support, if now a bit qualified.
The next contest of real significance will be in Haley’s home state of South Carolina. Trump holds a large advantage there due to the Evangelical Vote. It’s not like Haley is unpopular back home. However, the state’s political climate has changed since she was Governor. No doubt Trump will increasingly do variations on what he did with Tim Scott the night of the New Hampshire primary. Remember how with Scott standing right there Trump flat out said Scott must really hate Haley because Scott had just endorse him. He might have the weakest of spines but Scott still interrupted with a “I don’t hate her, I just love you more.” Personally I think Scott killed his shot at VP right then and there but that’s another story.
Conventional wisdom holds that Haley will lose her home state to Trump and by a large margin. Despite predictions she’d make Trump work and sweat in New Hampshire (she did) both before and since that view hasn’t changed. And boy have the pundits hammered on what happens after, with state after state coming up with large numbers of Evangelical voters who will deliver huge wins for Haley. She has no chance they say. Admittedly they make a good case. Still, according to CNN AFP says the heavy investment in Haley has been worth it. More importantly they are still backing her:
In a presentation to the network’s top donors, Emily Seidel and Michael Palmer – senior advisers to Americans for Prosperity Action – said the narrowing of the GOP race to just Trump and Haley demonstrates she was the right candidate to back as a Trump alternative, according to a summary of the presentation provided to CNN by an AFP Action official.
AFP Action endorsed the former South Carolina governor in November and will continue to support her – even as she faces what Koch officials acknowledge is an “uphill battle” for the nomination.
Here on Politizoom Murfster has written multiple times about how AFP’s support is about more than money. They have a nationwide organization of paid staff and just as importantly volunteers. People go go out and knock on doors, make phone calls and do all that grassroots GOTV work. It’s a ready made and huge asset that few individuals running for President can build on their own. It takes huge sums of money and a large team of competent political professionals/operatives and creating it in the two or three years before the primaries start is something few can accomplish. Instead, they raise enough money to try and get wins in Iowa and New Hampshire and hope getting one (in either state) will bring in a huge infusion of cash and talent to flesh out the meager operations they might have in the states between then and Super Tuesday.
When Haley got the backing of the remaining Koch brother and with it APF she knew if she could make a good showing in the first two states she’d be able to continue. Just as importantly, she wouldn’t have to win South Carolina either. Yes, it will be embarrassing for her to lose her home state. Not getting blown out, actually reducing Trump’s margins into the mid or preferably low teens is what to watch for. If Haley can do THAT it won’t just freak out Trump and his people, it will solidify the backing from AFP. As it stands they are doing more than talking up Haley. Per the linked article:
The group has invested millions to back Haley’s candidacy and already has spent more than $3 million on advertising in South Carolina, according to AdImpact data. AFP officials say they have reached out to more than 420,000 South Carolina voters and were knocking on more doors in the Palmetto State this weekend.
Not even being on the ballot for the weird process in Nevada Haley won’t waste much, if any time there. She gets to spend most of the month between New Hampshire and South Carolina roaming home turf. On familiar grounds. She’s also been drawing sharper contrasts with Trump and tweaking him on a repeated basis. No, she’s not gone full Chris Christie and engaged in ball-busting attacks. However, Trump has been reportedly furious she didn’t bow out after Iowa like DeSantis did. And worse that she not only jumped right out there in New Hampshire and delivered a startling good address with the nation watching, but also tweaked him during it. All before HE got to take the stage. To those including pundits who say she is still angling for VP I say that’s just not going to happen, especially because as I said she keeps zinging Trump.
What I think matters most is that she’ll be spending a lot more time in SC than Trump will. Or Tim Scott for that matter and my bet is that Haley will politely but pointedly remind voters there of how SHE put him in the Senate in the first place. Remembering that moment right there with Trump where Scott tried to have it both ways it’s not going to make either Scott or Trump look very good. Add up Haley having found her comfort zone, being on home ground and still solid backing from AFP I predict she’ll do much better next month than the early predictions. Or that Trump has counted on.
Still, there’s a fly in the ointment for Haley. She’s got Koch/AFP pulling out the stops right now but there was a “qualifier” tossed out there yesterday. Despite what AFP leaders said that I highlighted earlier they had a bit more to say:
Seidel and Palmer, however, also emphasized that the organization stands ready to shift its resources and say that flipping the Senate from Democratic control is a top priority that grows all the more important if Trump wins the nomination.
Translated that means that yes they will stay strong for Haley for the foreseeable future. However, if she doesn’t keep punching above her weight all bets are off. Rather than pour many tens of million dollars and organizational time and effort into Haley they’ll shift priority to the Senate. I think they will continue to back Haley through Super Tuesday but how much is the question. A good, really good showing in South Carolina will get her the full weight of AFP. Less than that and the support will drop off and by quite a bit.
A month can be a lifetime in politics. During Presidential primary season a week, and sometimes not even that can be. Trump has gotten hit with bad news and more is coming. He sure as hell hasn’t handled things well so far and there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to devolve, and give Haley who is quite good on the stump a chance to, with people who might remember she was liked as Governor and showed leadership (even if many didn’t like it with that state flag) and vote for one of their own. Instead of the interloper and groper from Florida.
If Haley makes a real race out of it in South Carolina, and especially if the DC Circuit gets off its ass and in the first half of February the criminal case in DC gets back on track and scheduled to start in mid-April (still possible) then mark your calendars for Super Tuesday.
Koch’s are Corporate 1%, the MEGA RICH, Fossill Fuel Industry, Georgia-Pacific Paper products Industry, etc. They don’t pay their FAIR share of taxes & their Gas/Fracking Ind., are SUBSIDIZED, have been for decades! They are RW White Nationalists, have many Lobbyists group’s/Org’s, privatizing Public Schools, passed “Citizens United,” “Trickle-down” legislation & worked to STOP “Unionization”! That’s how the KOCH’s ROLL! So be aware, the Koch’s don’t care, if Democracy dies! Please VOTE Blue if you want to live in a Democracy! Yes Dem’s need to do better for the people & they will, if we ELECT Blue up & down your Ballot! VOTE Blue, don’t sit any Election out! Make your VOICE heard, give the Democrats a Congress, that CAN get things done, W/O RW OBSTRUCTION/ INACTION!
Thanks for the truth! ‘Defend’? Try paying for EVIL!!! VOTE. VOTE! VOTE!
What Diane said!
It’s quite easy to see why most developed economies have spending by political operators funding political parties much more tightly controlled than in the USA.
The distortion of the political process by money, and by extension, the use of the measurement of funds raised, (the dollar count), as a measure of popularity is now an exclusively American feature/problem.
The morbidly rich must be very happy they’ve managed to game the system their way to this extent.