Coup Underway In Russia? (And Yes, It Could Affect Trump)

“Be careful what you wish for.” 

We all have heard the saying above.  If we haven’t been on the receiving end of unpleasant unanticipated consequences we still have seen them.  Like the Zen Master story at the end of Charlie Wilson’s War as the CIA guy recounts the story of good and bad (at the time they happened) happening to the boy in question the Zen Master always had the same response – “We’ll see.”

I’d be willing to bet that like me you have long wanted, even before he chose to initiate the war in Ukraine that Vladmir Putin would die.  Or be assassinated.  Or at least overthrown and sent into a heavily guarded but comfy (as long as he behaved) exile.  The question most don’t bother with is “Who takes over?”  It could be someone better.  But it could be worse.  So combining the opening sentiment with the Zen Master we get to the issue of what if Putin is gone?  We’ll rejoice and talk about how wonderful it is no matter his fate, thinking the only thing that matters is that he’s no longer in power.

And the Zen Master will say “We’ll see.” Because as the saying I started with says “Be careful what you wish for” – as in you might wind up with someone worse.

That brings me to what’s in the news tonight about a large force of Wagner people back in Russia and making their way towards Moscow.  They’ve apparently already gone through one checkpoint, either because regular Russian troops were sympathetic to them and their leader (hoping to join?  Get better pay and training?) or afraid to take them on in a fight.  For those who don’t know much about them, a crash course on Wagner and their leader is in order.  I promise a cliff notes version so please folks who know the fuller picture cut me some slack.  If I get into detail (something I’m known to do which bores people and they stop reading) the important questions will never be considered by people who clicked on this article.

The Wagner Group is a Russian paramilitary group formed in 2014 at the request of Putin.  One of his close pals asked for some conditions which were met and a small but in a pretty short time effective army (of sorts) was formed.  Putin used them in eastern Ukraine, and in Syria too when he didn’t want to call up Russians for significant and bloody military operations, much less mess with his regular forces structure.  In a weird way, while still wedded to the old style Russian/USSR military model Putin also saw the value of a govt. funded and equipped, semi-autonomous mercenary force.

So did his (back then) man Yevgeny Prigozhin.  Wagner steadily grew in size and capability and had enough value to Putin some latitude was granted and Prigozhin found a literal gold mine in Africa.  He pretty much took over a country and has fattened his and Wagner’s coffers with illegally marketed gold, as well as plenty of blood diamonds.  Putin created a monster that began to grow out of his control.  Wagner was both more flexible and in many ways better off financially than the Russian army.  As well as more experienced in actual fighting.

Imagine the old days of Blackwater which Erik Prince rebranded a couple of times.  Except he used mostly former U.S. military guys and didn’t have a toxic mix of hardened convicts and other scum on the payroll.  I for one think Prigozhin looked hard at what Prince built, and realized that the time might come when he could use it to personal advantage someday.  His buddy Vlad wasn’t going to live forever and might let his ego drive him to do something stupid.  Like invade Ukraine.

I believe from the get-go Prigozhin had a strong hunch that while the plan might work, it was at best a 60-50 shot because he also knew that unlike HIS group and their equipment, the Russian Army and it’s equipment looked far more formidable than it actually was.  Despite air superiority and a seemingly endless supply of artillery shells if Russia didn’t get the knockout blow in 24-48 hours Putin and Russia would be in trouble.  Not that Russia couldn’t eventually win unless the west stepped up, but it would be long, bloody and expensive and Putin would be vulnerable.  That Russia just might find itself needing a new leader/dictator.

And he had just the person in mind – himself!

The thing is, he would likely turn out to be worse than Putin.  Unlike Putin he’s been out there amongst his forces where fighting has taken place.  Putin never has.  He’s seen combat’s ugly realities.  Putin has seen/taken part in neat orderly Judo Competitions.  I recall a narrative long ago about Putin not being merely KGB back in the day but a seasoned operative.  Who was even Spetnaz – Russian Special Ops in case you didn’t know and they are in fact taken seriously by spec ops types from other countries.  Putin of course loved this kind of stuff floating around out there.  Problem was none of it was true.  He was a mid-level office guy.  An analyst and nothing more.  No military service at all, much less special ops and combat.  And no “Secret Agent Man” stuff either!

Like any Russian Prigozhin knows his WWII history (what they reverently still call The Great Patriotic War) well.  After years leading actual fighting troops, sometimes upfront he’s come to realize his benefactor Vlad is a modern version of what some of the Prussian military commanders thought of Hitler – that Bohemian Corporal.  Hitler got gassed in WWI like so many low ranking enlisted pukes in the trenches.  That was the limit of his military experience and knowledge.  STILL more than Trump’s though!  But when he got real power he thought he knew more than he did, and the same is true of Putin.  Putin however has never had the quality of senior military officers Hitler did and chose to ignore.

So tonight we have a possible Coup in the works.  Something I believe Prigozhin thought events might someday make possible.  Could it be “someday” is almost here?

There are plenty of corrupt and/or incompetent people in Russia’s military leadership but not all of them are.  Prigozhen would have his pick of the litter of any who took a cold, hard look at things and decided to join him.  For damned sure Russian troops would gladly join him because as I said they’d at least get better food and equipment and decent training.  For now it’s clear things are at best murky in Russia.  Russia’s military boss and Prigozhin have been at odds for a while now and Wagner forces have  been attacked by Russian regular forces loyal to their (current) boss.  From where I sit this feud won’t end until one or the other is dead.

There is also word that Prigozhin is subject to arrest if found in Russia.  So, at this point his former pal Vlad has decided he’s a real threat and wants him dead.  In effect, Prigozhin has likely crossed the point of no return.  Depose and kill Putin, or if he realizes he can’t pull that off find a way to negotiate a “return to the fight in Ukraine” and instead evacuate himself and as much of his organization as he can to Africa.  Like I said he no longer needs Putin/Russia financially, just as Erik Prince no longer needs U.S. DOD and State Dept. contracts.

I mentioned Trump and what this could mean for him.  It’s a given that Trump is on the hook to Putin and the Oligarchs (sounds like a name for a rock band) for far more than the several hundred millions he’s going to  have to cough up to legitimate financial institutions sometime next year.  As this war has gone not at all the way Putin and his buddies thought it would I felt it could be good for Trump or bad.  But even if good, it might well be only in the short term.  Just surviving (literally for Putin and probably a few others) is the priority for now and has been for a while.  And out of power Trump can’t do much for them anymore.

But some might be having cash flow problems.  Moving/hiding their ill-gotten gains has gotten tougher and tougher and a hobbled Trump who is suddenly up to his neck in legal troubles and even in some danger of losing control of the Trump Org. isn’t able to help them when they need it most.  Some of these folks (not just Vlad) are people who not being able to pay them back is NOT the recommended path to a long and happy life.

I say Trump is desperate to become President not just to pardon himself (and others) to relieve his own financial problems, but to get Putin/Oligarchs off his back by doing the kind of NATO busting crap he did before.  And don’t think for a second they won’t remind him that the “interest” has gone up because he didn’t do a good enough job of wrecking NATO!  Nope.  They intend to make him pay and you can be sure they’ve let him know.

How will it all play out?  Russia. Ukraine. Putin. Prigozhin, Trump.  Various oligarchs.  Not to mention dictators like Erdogan and MBS sitting on the sidelines biding their time to see how they can extract the most benefit from the key players.  That’s a lot of moving parts and don’t believe for a second anyone who says they can give a reasonably accurate prediction as to how it will all play out.

All I know for sure is that we are going to see a series of major developments.  Some will make us want to rejoice.  Others will fill us with despair or even dread.  But when it comes to the former, things that in the moment are good, even great news beware the old saying “Be careful what you wish for.”  Because with each major development before rejoicing or weeping we should heed the Zen Master’s admonition on how to react with “We’ll See.”

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