We’re seeing an interesting phenomenon take place right now. Donald Trump has been responsible for the GOP losing the past several elections, to wit, 2018, 2020 (where he spectacularly lost the White House, Senate, and House,) 2022, and now it looks like the Republicans haven’t been battered and bloodied enough, he’s leading the pack for the 2024 presidential nomination.
The second place runner is Ron DeSantis, and as the weeks tick by, DeSantis is falling further behind in the polls, despite the fact that he’s been going everywhere possible and planning more trips, both domestically and abroad, to promote his new book and promote himself as the new face of the Republican party.
Nothing’s working. He’s out there in front of people but he’s not picking up any endorsements. What is happening here? Politico:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis values being in control. Presidential candidate-in-waiting DeSantis is losing it.
As he trekked to the nation’s capital to demonstrate strength with the Washington establishment on Tuesday — and before he even set foot in the district — several members of his state’s congressional delegation announced support instead for former President Donald Trump’s White House comeback bid.
It was the latest indication of the early shine dulling on a candidate initially heralded by Republicans who don’t want Trump to be their party’s 2024 nominee — and more proof of Trump’s indictment bolstering his standing in the GOP field.
“[DeSantis] is in a much weaker position now than he was a few months ago. Trump is in a much stronger position,” said Sarah Longwell, a moderate Republican strategist. DeSantis, she said, has “had a tough few weeks.”
While DeSantis stays out of the race — he’s planning an entrance after Florida’s legislative session ends in the coming weeks — Trump has begun to consolidate support. The former president and a PAC boosting him are using the time to hammer away at the Florida governor.
It’s not carved in stone that DeSantis is going to run. As a matter of fact, the way he’s bleeding support in the polls, it might be a good idea for him to hang back and remain Florida’s governor, rather than take on Trump. At this point he’s trailing Trump by 23 points according to 538.
Trump is in control of MAGA and if there is a sane faction of the Republican party, who wants to move on from Trump, they either are not that big or they simply don’t have a candidate that can perform any better than DeSantis is right now, and he’s trailing Trump badly.
We will know far more when the Florida legislature winds up its business in May. But if we had to read the tea leaves today, unless DeSantis is able to do something amazing in the next month or so, he won’t have a viable shot at the nomination. He would serve his cause better by holding out until 2028 — although, the way things are going, there’s no indication Trump won’t run again then, as well. Remember, Trump is not the usual candidate and the laws of political physics, as we know them, don’t apply to him like they do other people.
DeSantis would be smart to play his long game here. He’s young and arguably has a future in GOP politics. If he walks away from the governorship to run against Trump, that may be a move he will live to regret.
Or, alternatively, this may be DeSantis’ now or never time. JFK said that in 1960, that now was the time for him to run. The moment was right. If DeSantis doesn’t run now, his shine, which is already dulling, may be non existent in 2028.
It will certainly be interesting to see what he finally decides to do.
It’s not just that he’s not getting endorsements. He’s getting retractions! Word was circulating some of the big money donors that had pledged support when he finally declared have been quietly pulling back and adopting a “wait and see” stance. It got drowned out with the Dominion/Fox news but one of them went public a day or two ago in withdrawing support for a DeSantis candidacy! I think Ron is screwed at this point. He made enough noise that Trump will never, ever forgive him. Also, win or lose (whether the nominaton or the general election) Trump will to his dying (not soon enough unless it’s in the next few minutes) dying day taking great delight in regularly tormenting DeSantis. IF DeSantis realizes this, and having his own strong vindictive streak he might just go ahead and wait until the last minute and formally declare and spend his campaign (albeit with far less resources than he’d anticipated) taking whacks at Trump. He has the same “If I can’t have it then I’m not about to let YOU have it” attitude that Trump has!
According to one report, Democrats have compiled lots of opposition research on DeSantis, and are waiting to see if he becomes the GOP frontrunner. Aside from that, the way he handles the next disaster to hit Florida will either make or break his campaign. The news today showed angry people in Fort Lauderdale, where gasoline supplies are still scarce because of flooding that occurred several days ago (while Ron was out of state, BTW).
Ron is waiting until after May 5th to declare or not. That’s when the FL legislature ends, and he’s hoping they can/will repeal the rule that he can’t run for another office before he leaves the Governorship. IF his lackeys can repeal the rule, the money may return. The flip side, though, is that (if he then runs) Democrats in FL can hammer him because of his (non)answer to Crist in the debate.
DeSantis doesn’t have the courage of his own convictions or he would declare himself. That looks and smells like cowardice. That’s the way Trump and his goobers will see it. Ron isn’t a risk-taker, or a leader, or anything like presidential material. He’s a runt.