This is another watershed moment in our politics, in an era which has been a non stop typhoon of watershed moments. Nate Silver at 538 shared the following disclaimer and rationale for the disclaimer, with respect to doing his job of predicting election outcomes.
We've never had to put a disclaimer like this on our forecast before but … well, 2020. pic.twitter.com/aXfNfScu0h
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 10, 2020
And it goes without saying, that for the first election in our history, mail-in ballots are being challenged. This is positively Goebbels-esque. Hitler’s propaganda chief, Joseph Goebbels, said, 1. Tell a big lie; 2. Make it simple, 3. Repeat it often enough and people will believe it. That is exactly what Trump hath wrought with respect to mail-in voting, let alone during a pandemic.
— BreadNButter (@BeatsBaresBeetl) August 11, 2020
scary what our nation is becoming.
— G.R.R. (@windbourne_grr) August 11, 2020
All this does is underscore what we already know. We must resoundingly defeat Trump so that there is no question about whether it’s a close election. This can’t be a replay of 2000 or anywhere close to it. This has to be definitive, because otherwise our way of life is gone, and living in a democracy is something that we will talk about in the past tense.
**Eye roll** Silver is ass-covering, pure and simple. No matter which way this goes, he doesn’t want to wind up with egg on his face. For the rest of us, the mission remains the same: Get…Out…The Vote. If you’re feeling anxious over November, it’s the best damn thing you can do, in whatever great or small way you can.
Well the polls were accurate in 2016 BUT for voter interference.
The polls were accurate but cannot poll the electoral college.
Agree. I’m really tired of the way some people worship Nate Silver. His name in a subject name is an automatic delete from me. Any candidate that titles their email “Nate Silver says” doesn’t get read.
There must be loud ongoing outrage at the destruction of the post office. If Delay gets away with tbis, its blood in the streets time.
Unfortunately, WE are helping make this a possibility by joining in the repetition over and over and over, often with more lurid and cautionary scenarios even than Trump is putting out, which amplifies the distrust of the voting system and perhaps even encourages people not to bother.
Yeah, Trump TALKS a lot about “rigged rigged rigged.” But his power to DO anything is very limited, and while these dystopian scenarios are very exciting to talk about, we’re really hurting ourselves by constantly foregrounding them. It’s more likely than not that the election will be relatively routine and we WILL have a winner the same night (almost certainly Biden). Of course, the media will continue to flog these speculative stories because they’re exciting and they either don’t realize the harm they do or they don’t care. I think they don’t realize how high the stakes have gotten. This isn’t 2012 with their silly projections about how the electoral college could be tied.
But we really need to have a little faith, along with caution.
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