I wrote about this subject a few weeks ago, but so what? All I am is a loudmouth Mick who can type. If you don’t actually have any hard facts and data behind you, what you are is basically full of shit. You have what we call an opinion.
But not anymore, because now I have something at least approaching proof. Last night on MSNBC, they had the Harvard Dean of Political Science Polling on. And he had something to say.
I honestly don’t know whether there’s going to be a Red Wave in November, or whether there is going to be a Blue Wave in November. But one thing I can assure you of, there’s going to be a Generation-X wave in November. No doubt.
This is what I’ve been saying all all along. Nobody bothers to even try to poll the 18-24 year old segment, for a couple of good reasons. First of all, approximately 2 million teenagers turn 18 every year, and are eligible to vote. But they’ve never voted, so they won’t fit into Likely Voter polls, which require that the person have voted at least 3 times in the last 5 cycles. Also, being social media facing, they don’t necessarily answer the phone for pollsters. And to finish, they have a piss poor record of showing up to vote, especially in midterm elections.
And while that may historically be true, it is almost certainly not the case today. But the pollsters are slow to recalibrate their processes and matrixes. In 2018, fueled by social media and the atrocity at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High, they flooded the polls and turfed out 31 GOP incumbents with A or A+ ratings from the NRA. And it worked. Fueled by that pushback, Florida, the test tube for NRA legislation, had to dial the age limit for the purchase of an assault weapon back from 18-21.
And now, in 2022, the Harvard Dean is saying that they’re back out in force again. Fueled by issues like more gun control, more climate change regulation, and particularly a woman’s bodily autonomy, they’re in full war cry. Having tasted success in 2018 and 2020, the X-Generation has the democracy bit well and truly between their teeth.
And nobody is accurately polling them! And Harvard didn’t just stop at polling with the 18-24 group. Over the last 2 years, they have held focus groups with some 3500-5000 students in that age group in order to determine their focus and intensity. And found them highly motivated to get out and vote in November.
Just to provide a little context here. Harvard focused 300-500 people in the 18-24 year old voting group to gauge their intensity. A couple of weeks ago, the schlock New York Times commissioned a national poll from a university that had a respondent pool of 269! Jesus, Mary and Joseph. The Las Vegas Review Journal wouldn’t publish results from a poll with less than 1000 respondents, but the NYT used the results to scarify the nation that Latino’s were deserting the Democratic party.
Here’s the rub. As I’ve already shown previously, the GOP is using friendly national polls to conduct palsied surveys with skewed questions to fluff up the GOP’s potential in the midterm polls. They’re trying to rig the polling just like they try to rig the election. Fine, have at it. Polls don’t matter, voting does.
And nobody is seriously polling the one group that may have the greatest impact on the 2022 midterm, simply because they refuse to admit that they might even exist! And that’s why I ‘m taking every poll I see with a skewed eye until I see cross tabs showing that they are taking the 18-24 vote into account. And why you should take every poll you see with a cowlick sized grain of salt. They’re out there. And nobody is paying attention. Proceed at your own risk.