I wrote about this subject a few weeks ago, but so what? All I am is a loudmouth Mick who can type. If you don’t actually have any hard facts and data behind you, what you are is basically full of shit. You have what we call an opinion.
But not anymore, because now I have something at least approaching proof. Last night on MSNBC, they had the Harvard Dean of Political Science Polling on. And he had something to say.
I honestly don’t know whether there’s going to be a Red Wave in November, or whether there is going to be a Blue Wave in November. But one thing I can assure you of, there’s going to be a Generation-X wave in November. No doubt.
This is what I’ve been saying all all along. Nobody bothers to even try to poll the 18-24 year old segment, for a couple of good reasons. First of all, approximately 2 million teenagers turn 18 every year, and are eligible to vote. But they’ve never voted, so they won’t fit into Likely Voter polls, which require that the person have voted at least 3 times in the last 5 cycles. Also, being social media facing, they don’t necessarily answer the phone for pollsters. And to finish, they have a piss poor record of showing up to vote, especially in midterm elections.
And while that may historically be true, it is almost certainly not the case today. But the pollsters are slow to recalibrate their processes and matrixes. In 2018, fueled by social media and the atrocity at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High, they flooded the polls and turfed out 31 GOP incumbents with A or A+ ratings from the NRA. And it worked. Fueled by that pushback, Florida, the test tube for NRA legislation, had to dial the age limit for the purchase of an assault weapon back from 18-21.
And now, in 2022, the Harvard Dean is saying that they’re back out in force again. Fueled by issues like more gun control, more climate change regulation, and particularly a woman’s bodily autonomy, they’re in full war cry. Having tasted success in 2018 and 2020, the X-Generation has the democracy bit well and truly between their teeth.
And nobody is accurately polling them! And Harvard didn’t just stop at polling with the 18-24 group. Over the last 2 years, they have held focus groups with some 3500-5000 students in that age group in order to determine their focus and intensity. And found them highly motivated to get out and vote in November.
Just to provide a little context here. Harvard focused 300-500 people in the 18-24 year old voting group to gauge their intensity. A couple of weeks ago, the schlock New York Times commissioned a national poll from a university that had a respondent pool of 269! Jesus, Mary and Joseph. The Las Vegas Review Journal wouldn’t publish results from a poll with less than 1000 respondents, but the NYT used the results to scarify the nation that Latino’s were deserting the Democratic party.
Here’s the rub. As I’ve already shown previously, the GOP is using friendly national polls to conduct palsied surveys with skewed questions to fluff up the GOP’s potential in the midterm polls. They’re trying to rig the polling just like they try to rig the election. Fine, have at it. Polls don’t matter, voting does.
And nobody is seriously polling the one group that may have the greatest impact on the 2022 midterm, simply because they refuse to admit that they might even exist! And that’s why I ‘m taking every poll I see with a skewed eye until I see cross tabs showing that they are taking the 18-24 vote into account. And why you should take every poll you see with a cowlick sized grain of salt. They’re out there. And nobody is paying attention. Proceed at your own risk.
It’s actually Gen Z we’re talking about, Murf, as I’m an actual Gen Xer. My group still remember a world before Internet. The Zoomers only remember the 21st Century and so the last few years have especially sucked for them to see. We elders have collectively failed them, which is why they are now extra motivated to step up. And THAT is an indictment of Boomers and Gen Xers alike. I’ve long since resigned myself to the fact that I’ll be helping them clean up this shit for the rest of my life. But I do it gladly…they deserve no less.
Echoing Bareshark…Gen Z is what you’re talking about.
Boomer here. I will gladly help any generation following mine to fix the mess since Nixon . I have consistently voted blue, but many of my age became ultra conservative as they aged, forgetting the lessons of our collective youth. Republicans put profits over people, Democrats always put people first.
Early voting turnout in Texas is behind 2018 numbers. This can mean a lot of things. Changes in voting laws etc.
Enthusiasm for Beto is down a bit, he was a blank slate in 2018 against cruz. At the same time enthusiasm for abbott et al is also down. abbott patrick and paxton are running as a trifecta and none of them have enthusiastic support. None of them have actually campaigned in any real sense, relying on campaign ads. Beto has
I don’t think campaign ads push the needle too much anymore. Ground game is what Beto has. He still has lots of volunteers from 2018 who are out getting people out to the polls. In Texas there is this debate about the changing Latino vote. To be honest I think this has swung against abbott et al because of the Uvalde murders. Abbott and his police did not protect children. That may not come out in polls, but it will come out in voting.
Beto may not win, but it will be very close and may impact down ballot races that may not have been competitive in the past like in 2018.
I think it’s the Uvalde murders and the failure to act afterwards that has really made an impression. I also hope that people have not forgotten the horrible grid failure during the freeze. Abbott really hasn’t done anything to remake the hierarchy controlling the grid or required natural gas suppliers to weatherize their equipment.
It’s been 10 years, but I still remember when the unctuous Dick Morris admitted on Fox News that he lied about Mitt Romney’s standing in the polls right before the 2012 election, because he didn’t want Republicans to get discouraged. So never take opinion polls at face value.
A republican lie? Surely you jest! Oh, that’s right…if they’re breathing the lies just roll out of their cake holes. Nevermind.